With so many teams playing this Sunday, we have a shakeup in the top 7… into an apparent top 6. I wouldn’t count anyone out. While it would be big news if GVSU gave up their now 6 game lead, the ratings of the rest of the top 8 are competitive. Plenty of weeks left and a few Nationals games to go before we truly see the shaping of a Championship bracket.
Nine of our 29 active member teams played this Sunday:
There were five technical upsets in the day (of 14 games), two at Border War and three at the MDC. All of the three Overtime games on Sunday were technical upsets as well.
CMU def MSU 2-1 (1.024 exchange)
SVSU def MSU 4-1 (1.012)
SVSU def CMU 3-2 OT (0.596)
JMU def Towson 3-2 OT (0.523)
UVA def UMD 3-2 OT (0.508)
The greatest technical upset of the day was SVSU def CMU in Overtime. Saginaw gained a solid chunk of rating off of Central, but had they defeated CMU in regulation we would have seen SV at #2.
The largest rating change across the day was the CMU/MSU technical upset, but still pretty minor compared to the history of technical upsets across the Gonzalez system. All five of these matches can be considered strength adjusting upsets; allowing for upsets like these is crucial to maintaining the balance of the system. An allowable tolerance for the overall system success rate. Continue reading “Standings as of 2016-02-20”
The end Gonzalez Rating changes for each participant following the Bobcat Bash:
There were no technical upsets in the Bobcat Bash, but there were a number of decent weight matches. Five teams increased their ratings, if only slightly in some cases. BGSU gained the most points over the weekend, owing to their three wins against comparative opponents. Bowling Green had about 5 rating points on each competitor, which relates to about a 0.5 point gain for each win. Solid, steady gains. Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-02-14”
The Executive Board had voted on 2016-12-10 to move exclusively to the Gonzalez system, which will determine the seeds for the Nationals 2017 tournament bracket. During peer review with the Content Team, the value of Home Court Advantage was questioned and initiated a full review on home court advantage in the NCDA. This review was based on objective data from past matches (1114 ranked matches as of 2017-02-10) and determined that +1 was more appropriate than the +3 used by the system.
HCA +3 = 231 technical upsets of 1114 matches (79.26%)
HCA +1 = 208 technical upsets of 1114 matches (81.33%)
Variance: 23 in 1114 (2% or about 1 in 50)
The Executive Board has voted to update the Home Court Advantage modifier to +1.
Motion to adjust the Home Court Advantage variable from the current +3 to +1 point for the home team. This increases the accuracy of the system and is more realistic indication of home court advantage.
5/5 approve, with assent of Director of Nationals. Motion caries 2017-02-06 22:40 CST.
The Gonzalez system will use +1 point in the case of home court advantage and the system variables are frozen for Nationals 2017. The Gonzalez system will determine the seeds for Nationals 2017 tournament bracket. The current success rate with this variable is 208 technical upsets of 1114 total ranked matches (81.33%).
After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.
There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.
Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play. Continue reading “Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05”
This system is slightly different than the Gonzalez system used in the past few standings posts. In order to better account for home court advantage (HCA), we now give only 1 point advantage to the home team, where it used to be +3. Under the new HCA variable, the system has a greater success rate of 81.60% as opposed to the old 79.42%. In 1103 ranked matches, there are 203 upsets as opposed to 227.
In the next few days, look for a report proving +1 is better than +3. Proceeding this report, an Exec Board vote is scheduled to put this +1 point Home Court Advantage into the system to have it in place for Nationals. Continue reading “Gonzalez Standings as of 2017-02-01”