Policy Proposal – Nationals Scheduling

Nationals is two things: the National Tournament (Section 4.3.4.6) and the extra-strength Non-Bracket Matches (Section 4.3.4.5). Rule 4.3.4.5 is purposely written broadly, but for the time being we’ll refer to it as Saturday and Sunday. Currently, it defines that each team gets three unique opponents to play on Saturday.

I propose a less stringent definition of Saturday’s required games, a minimum of two. This will guarantee that each team receives at least three matches over the Nationals Event weekend. 

This is not an explicit drop to two games, we Need to be broader with our written policy. For smaller events (teams number 16 and smaller) we can fit three games in. The point is, requiring 3 matches is too stringent. Adding more teams to Nationals but keeping 3 matches going in will likely require that Friday matches are mandatory.  Continue reading “Policy Proposal – Nationals Scheduling”

Standings as of 2017-03-14

UWP/DePaul have played 7 games with each other in this Season, with the record being UWP 5-2 DePaul. The players of these two teams were curious if this made a League record. Turns out, it ties for second. The League record for games played against a single opponent in a single season is 9 games played.

In their overall 14 matches over their history, the record stands UWP 12-2 DePaul. Prehistory records include a couple more, here and there, but to take this into consideration: before 2017, DePaul/UWP have only played once a season, on average.

Existing Record:
2015, 9 games: GVSU 9-0 MSU (inc 2 “doubleheaders”)
2015, 7 games: GVSU 6-1 CMU (inc 0 doubles)
2016, 7 games: GVSU 5-2 MSU (inc 1 doubleheader)
2017, 7 games: GVSU 5-2 MSU (inc 2 doubleheaders)
2017, 7 games: UWP 5-2 DePaul (inc 1 doubleheader)

Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-03-14”

Standings as of 2017-03-07

Of the 12 games played this past weekend in Towson and the Kentuckian Bowling Green, we saw only one technical upset. Akron def UNG 5-2. While the video of this game was exciting, this game could be considered one of the rating adjustments games because new Member Team UNG didn’t have a lot games under their belt. There’s always many angles you can look at the result. The end exchange was 1.490 and ranks 43rd out of 222 technical upsets. We have 1170 ranked matches under our collective belts.

Team Pre Post Change
Akron 35.518 36.737 1.219
UK 47.366 48.235 0.869
Towson 47.972 48.819 0.847
Kent 43.388 43.786 0.399
WKU 41.906 42.223 0.317
VCU 42.975 42.489 -0.486
UMD 36.909 36.149 -0.760
UNG 40.466 38.061 -2.405

Akron leads the day with the biggest exchange having won a technical upset. UK also secured the big victory by gaining the most points without needing to upset anybody to do it. Plus, they brought home the Kentucky Dodgeball Cup in their 3-1 win over a WKU home team.  Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-03-07”

Standings as of 2016-02-20

With so many teams playing this Sunday, we have a shakeup in the top 7… into an apparent top 6. I wouldn’t count anyone out. While it would be big news if GVSU gave up their now 6 game lead, the ratings of the rest of the top 8 are competitive. Plenty of weeks left and a few Nationals games to go before we truly see the shaping of a Championship bracket.

Nine of our 29 active member teams played this Sunday:

Team Pre Post Change
SVSU 47.267 48.708 1.441
JMU 48.016 49.161 1.145
GVSU 55.440 56.356 0.916
Towson 47.768 47.972 0.204
UVA 37.284 37.425 0.142
CMU 49.615 49.624 0.010
UMD 37.437 36.909 -0.528
VCU 43.937 42.975 -0.963
MSU 48.171 45.804 -2.367

There were five technical upsets in the day (of 14 games), two at Border War and three at the MDC. All of the three Overtime games on Sunday were technical upsets as well.

CMU def MSU 2-1  (1.024 exchange)
SVSU def MSU 4-1 (1.012)
SVSU def CMU 3-2 OT (0.596)
JMU def Towson 3-2 OT (0.523)
UVA def UMD 3-2 OT (0.508)

The greatest technical upset of the day was SVSU def CMU in Overtime. Saginaw gained a solid chunk of rating off of Central, but had they defeated CMU in regulation we would have seen SV at #2.

The largest rating change across the day was the CMU/MSU technical upset, but still pretty minor compared to the history of technical upsets across the Gonzalez system. All five of these matches can be considered strength adjusting upsets; allowing for upsets like these is crucial to maintaining the balance of the system. An allowable tolerance for the overall system success rate. Continue reading “Standings as of 2016-02-20”

Standings as of 2017-02-14

The end Gonzalez Rating changes for each participant following the Bobcat Bash:

Team Pre Post Change
BGSU 40.679 42.168 1.489
CMU 48.594 49.615 1.021
Ohio 34.768 35.044 0.276
Kent 44.893 45.139 0.246
BW 36.571 36.630 0.059
Akron 35.366 35.343 -0.023
WKU 42.564 41.906 -0.658
Miami 34.438 32.028 -2.410

There were no technical upsets in the Bobcat Bash, but there were a number of decent weight matches. Five teams increased their ratings, if only slightly in some cases. BGSU gained the most points over the weekend, owing to their three wins against comparative opponents.  Bowling Green had about 5 rating points on each competitor, which relates to about a 0.5 point gain for each win. Solid, steady gains.  Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-02-14”

Gonzalez System Home Court Advantage Update

The Executive Board had voted on 2016-12-10 to move exclusively to the Gonzalez system, which will determine the seeds for the Nationals 2017 tournament bracket. During peer review with the Content Team, the value of Home Court Advantage was questioned and initiated a full review on home court advantage in the NCDA. This review was based on objective data from past matches (1114 ranked matches as of 2017-02-10) and determined that +1 was more appropriate than the +3 used by the system.

HCA +3 = 231 technical upsets of 1114 matches (79.26%)
HCA +1 = 208 technical upsets of 1114 matches (81.33%)
Variance: 23 in 1114 (2% or about 1 in 50)

The Executive Board has voted to update the Home Court Advantage modifier to +1.

Motion to adjust the Home Court Advantage variable from the current +3 to +1 point for the home team. This increases the accuracy of the system and is more realistic indication of home court advantage.

5/5 approve, with assent of Director of Nationals. Motion caries 2017-02-06 22:40 CST.

The Gonzalez system will use +1 point in the case of home court advantage and the system variables are frozen for Nationals 2017. The Gonzalez system will determine the seeds for Nationals 2017 tournament bracket. The current success rate with this variable is 208 technical upsets of 1114 total ranked matches (81.33%).

Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05

After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.

There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.

Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play.  Continue reading “Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05”

Gonzalez Standings as of 2017-02-01

This system is slightly different than the Gonzalez system used in the past few standings posts. In order to better account for home court advantage (HCA), we now give only 1 point advantage to the home team, where it used to be +3. Under the new HCA variable, the system has a greater success rate of 81.60% as opposed to the old 79.42%. In 1103 ranked matches, there are 203 upsets as opposed to 227.

In the next few days, look for a report proving +1 is better than +3. Proceeding this report, an Exec Board vote is scheduled to put this +1 point Home Court Advantage into the system to have it in place for Nationals. Continue reading “Gonzalez Standings as of 2017-02-01”