AKRON – The War: Finals results from both days.
Akron def CSU 5-0
MSU def VCU 3-0
GVSU def Ohio 5-1
DePaul def CSU 5-1
MSU def Akron 5-0
VCU def Ohio 5-0
Akron def DePaul 4-1
GVSU def MSU 3-2 OT
Ohio def CSU 3-1
GVSU def VCU 2-0
CSU def BW 0-0 (F)
DePaul def BW 0-0 (F)
Akron def BW 0-0 (F)
Kent def Ohio 3-0
BGSU def VCU 2-1
Ohio def Akron 3-2
PSU def DePaul 4-0
Kent def VCU 2-0
PSU def BGSU 2-1
BGSU def DePaul 4-0
Kent def PSU 3-1
The state existing before the war
I’ve marked this as opinion, as I include stuff we don’t track statistically.
A technical upset is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The first day of the War includes so many closely rated opponents that it is incredibly unlikely we will see every match predicted correctly. In our Gonzalez system’s current, straight success rate, the higher seeded team will win four of five games. However, this is less likely to apply as the rating gap between teams increases. Any of GVSU’s scheduled games are unlikely to result in a technical upset. CSU vs Akron is much fuzzier; each team has near identical ratings, being only 0.157 difference.
That said, these are the kinds of matches that are a test to the system. The wins and losses and overtimes (8.19% chance of occurrence) at the end of the day will better determine each team’s rating going into Nationals. We’ve never had this many great, even match games for Nationals before. I’m excited to see the results. Continue reading “Status Quo Ante Bellum”
Cross Post – Captains’ Club
Nationals is two things: the National Tournament (Section 188.8.131.52) and the extra-strength Non-Bracket Matches (Section 184.108.40.206). Rule 220.127.116.11 is purposely written broadly, but for the time being we’ll refer to it as Saturday and Sunday. Currently, it defines that each team gets three unique opponents to play on Saturday.
I propose a less stringent definition of Saturday’s required games, a minimum of two. This will guarantee that each team receives at least three matches over the Nationals Event weekend.
This is not an explicit drop to two games, we Need to be broader with our written policy. For smaller events (teams number 16 and smaller) we can fit three games in. The point is, requiring 3 matches is too stringent. Adding more teams to Nationals but keeping 3 matches going in will likely require that Friday matches are mandatory. Continue reading “Policy Proposal – Nationals Scheduling”
UWP/DePaul have played 7 games with each other in this Season, with the record being UWP 5-2 DePaul. The players of these two teams were curious if this made a League record. Turns out, it ties for second. The League record for games played against a single opponent in a single season is 9 games played.
In their overall 14 matches over their history, the record stands UWP 12-2 DePaul. Prehistory records include a couple more, here and there, but to take this into consideration: before 2017, DePaul/UWP have only played once a season, on average.
2015, 9 games: GVSU 9-0 MSU (inc 2 “doubleheaders”)
2015, 7 games: GVSU 6-1 CMU (inc 0 doubles)
2016, 7 games: GVSU 5-2 MSU (inc 1 doubleheader)
2017, 7 games: GVSU 5-2 MSU (inc 2 doubleheaders)
2017, 7 games: UWP 5-2 DePaul (inc 1 doubleheader)
Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-03-14”
CHICAGO – Ray Meyer: In the Chicago Dodgeball Combine,
UWP def DePaul 4-2
DePaul def UWP 5-2
Continue reading “Chicago Dodgeball Combine”
Of the 12 games played this past weekend in Towson and the Kentuckian Bowling Green, we saw only one technical upset. Akron def UNG 5-2. While the video of this game was exciting, this game could be considered one of the rating adjustments games because new Member Team UNG didn’t have a lot games under their belt. There’s always many angles you can look at the result. The end exchange was 1.490 and ranks 43rd out of 222 technical upsets. We have 1170 ranked matches under our collective belts.
Akron leads the day with the biggest exchange having won a technical upset. UK also secured the big victory by gaining the most points without needing to upset anybody to do it. Plus, they brought home the Kentucky Dodgeball Cup in their 3-1 win over a WKU home team. Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-03-07”
With so many games played this past weekend (18 ranked across 3 regions), plus two new teams, we see a lot more movement in the Standings than usual. When listing all the changes, we see top to bottom gains and losses.
Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-02-28”
RICHMOND – Cary Street Gym: In the Maryland/Virginia Border War,
TU-JV def VCU-JV 3-0
UVA def UMD 3-2 OT
Towson def VCU 2-1
JMU def UVA 3-0
JMU def Towson 3-2 OT
VCU def UVA 4-1
JMU def UMD 3-0
Towson def UMD 2-1
JMU def VCU 3-0
EAST LANSING – IM West: Finals out of the Michigan Dodgeball Cup:
GVSU def CMU 2-1
SVSU def CMU 3-2 OT
GVSU def MSU 2-0
GVSU def SVSU 4-0
CMU def MSU 2-1
SVSU def MSU 4-1
With so many teams playing this Sunday, we have a shakeup in the top 7… into an apparent top 6. I wouldn’t count anyone out. While it would be big news if GVSU gave up their now 6 game lead, the ratings of the rest of the top 8 are competitive. Plenty of weeks left and a few Nationals games to go before we truly see the shaping of a Championship bracket.
Nine of our 29 active member teams played this Sunday:
There were five technical upsets in the day (of 14 games), two at Border War and three at the MDC. All of the three Overtime games on Sunday were technical upsets as well.
CMU def MSU 2-1 (1.024 exchange)
SVSU def MSU 4-1 (1.012)
SVSU def CMU 3-2 OT (0.596)
JMU def Towson 3-2 OT (0.523)
UVA def UMD 3-2 OT (0.508)
The greatest technical upset of the day was SVSU def CMU in Overtime. Saginaw gained a solid chunk of rating off of Central, but had they defeated CMU in regulation we would have seen SV at #2.
The largest rating change across the day was the CMU/MSU technical upset, but still pretty minor compared to the history of technical upsets across the Gonzalez system. All five of these matches can be considered strength adjusting upsets; allowing for upsets like these is crucial to maintaining the balance of the system. An allowable tolerance for the overall system success rate. Continue reading “Standings as of 2016-02-20”
The end Gonzalez Rating changes for each participant following the Bobcat Bash:
There were no technical upsets in the Bobcat Bash, but there were a number of decent weight matches. Five teams increased their ratings, if only slightly in some cases. BGSU gained the most points over the weekend, owing to their three wins against comparative opponents. Bowling Green had about 5 rating points on each competitor, which relates to about a 0.5 point gain for each win. Solid, steady gains. Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-02-14”
The first episode of the calendar sees Mario and Hunter recapping the BEAST, then previewing some of the games at the Bobcat Bash. Zig is also stumbling around in there too.
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The Executive Board had voted on 2016-12-10 to move exclusively to the Gonzalez system, which will determine the seeds for the Nationals 2017 tournament bracket. During peer review with the Content Team, the value of Home Court Advantage was questioned and initiated a full review on home court advantage in the NCDA. This review was based on objective data from past matches (1114 ranked matches as of 2017-02-10) and determined that +1 was more appropriate than the +3 used by the system.
HCA +3 = 231 technical upsets of 1114 matches (79.26%)
HCA +1 = 208 technical upsets of 1114 matches (81.33%)
Variance: 23 in 1114 (2% or about 1 in 50)
The Executive Board has voted to update the Home Court Advantage modifier to +1.
Motion to adjust the Home Court Advantage variable from the current +3 to +1 point for the home team. This increases the accuracy of the system and is more realistic indication of home court advantage.
5/5 approve, with assent of Director of Nationals. Motion caries 2017-02-06 22:40 CST.
The Gonzalez system will use +1 point in the case of home court advantage and the system variables are frozen for Nationals 2017. The Gonzalez system will determine the seeds for Nationals 2017 tournament bracket. The current success rate with this variable is 208 technical upsets of 1114 total ranked matches (81.33%).
After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.
There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.
Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play. Continue reading “Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05”