Standings as of 2018-09-25

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2019 Season, we have 1 technical upset in 22 ranked matches (95.45% success rate) across 4 events. It’s still early. Additionally, there have been three JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.42% based on 307 technical upsets in 1568 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

Since our opening matches two weeks ago, we had four events with just one technical upset over 22 ranked matches.

UK def MSU 2-1

42.494 def 43.877, exchanging 1.238

In our only upset of the past two weeks and in the opening matches of the 2019 Season, UK took an upset against Michigan State on their home court (and still one of my all time favorite courts I’ve visited in the NCDA). With a rating gap of -2.383, and the usual home court advantage of one point, this was a middle of the road technical upset in historical terms. One of those rating adjustments that usually happen at the start of the season. So far that’s only been seen with UK and MSU, but we have plenty of college dodgeball ahead of us. The upset ranked 140th of 307 technical upsets, in the 54th percentile.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
Towson 46.336 49.652 3.316
Miami 42.022 43.153 1.131
GVSU 54.519 55.396 0.877
UK 43.073 43.732 0.659
SVSU 47.730 47.974 0.244
CMU 52.003 52.022 0.019
JMU 46.227 46.198 -0.029
OSU 40.664 40.616 -0.048
UVA 41.460 41.148 -0.313
PSU 40.684 40.116 -0.567
UMD 38.453 37.502 -0.951
BSU 37.099 36.016 -1.083
Kent 47.179 45.722 -1.456
MSU 44.438 42.639 -1.799

We’ve only had two weekends of events, but 14 teams have played matches of roughly 38 active Member Teams. These fourteen span many regions too.

Notably, Towson is on a tear at 6 for 6, garnering them a healthy rating boost to start out the Season. Towson’s historical highest rating was 49.875, which they briefly held last year at Nationals 2018. After defeating MSU 3-2 on Day 1 and climbing to a career high, Towson’s next match was a loss to GVSU 3-0 and a short dip to 48.831. Towson would end the 2018 Season with 48.121, and they’ve already managed to boost past this in just six games of play.

For comparison, the Nationals 2015 JMU squad reached a career high (and East Coast region high) of 52.364 after beating Towson 3-0 in the Quaternary finals. JMU would go on to narrowly lose to CMU 2-1 OT, closing off the 2015 Season with 51.475.

Oh, and I hope Miami sees that winning games does wonders to increase a rating. :p Just needed to give yourselves a little time. Miami has really come into their own, they are half a point from a career all time high. We had done a case study determining what would happen if Miami started out at the Initial Rating (40.000) when they returned in 2017, instead of recouping their slightly lower rating (38.086). The result was that Miami fared marginally better by taking the lower rating and the League fared better with fewer upsets. As time goes on, those old rating exchanges become much less of a factor and fade into statistical oblivion. At current, that difference is a few hundreths and there are fewer Upsets leaving a healthier overall system.

We often say that six matches is enough to determine an accurate rating, and that with 8-12 wins the lowest tier can advance to the top tier.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 55.396 GVSU
2 52.022 CMU
↑ from 4 3 49.652 Towson
↓ from 3 4 48.081 BGSU
↓ from 4 5 47.974 SVSU
↑ from 7 6 46.198 JMU
↓ from 5 7 45.722 Kent
↑ from 9 8 43.946 VCU
↑ from 10 9 43.732 UK
↑ from 11 10 43.153 Miami
↓ from 8 11 42.639 MSU
12 41.555 Ohio
↑ from 14 13 41.370 Akron
↓ from 13 14 41.148 UVA
15 40.975 UWP
↑ from 18 16 40.622 UNT
17 40.616 OSU
↑ from 19 18 40.489* SIUE
↑ from 20 19 40.260* ZAG
↑ from 21 20 40.230* OS
↓ from 16 21 40.116 PSU
22 39.767 WKU
23 39.185* UWW
24 39.163* NIU
↑ from 26 25 37.722* Midland
↓ from 25 26 37.502 UMD
27 37.442 DePaul
28 37.252 CSU
↑ from 30 29 37.007 UNG
↑ from 31 30 36.918 UCF
↑ from 32 31 36.912 SU
↑ from 33 32 36.528* WVU
↑ from 34 33 36.492 MC
↑ from 35 34 36.210 UNL
↑ from 36 35 36.173 GSU
↓ from 29 36 36.016 BSU
37 34.691 BW
38 32.435 NSU

Movement as of 2018-04-24

* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† (will be displayed starting at season halfpoint) denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentGonzalez OldPerroneChampLieblich
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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