Whitewater Winter Basher Preview

The Whitewater Winter Basher- December 4, 2016

Address: 907 Schwager Dr, Whitewater, Wisconsin 53190

Well, folks this marks the last NCDA event of the 2016 calendar year and it should be a good one.  The Whitewater Winter Basher (hopefully there will be a lot of head bashing in these games) will involve three teams and all have met before at Platteville’s 6 vs 6 tournament back in October. The teams are Whitewater, Platteville, and DePaul.  This time around though Whitewater will be experiencing their first 15 vs 15 matches and they are looking forward to it.  The games will be played at the Williams Center on the Kris Russell Volleyball Arena courts. Whitewater’s induction match into the NCDA League will be against DePaul, who has participated in 5 total Induction Matches across their history. For this tournament, the Warhawks, Platteville, and DePaul will have 15 players. Our head officiating referees for Sunday will be alumni Brandon Chappell, former president of UWP Dodgeball Club and alumni Zigmas Maloni of DePaul, Director of Officiating for the NCDA.   Let’s take a look at the match-ups.      Continue reading “Whitewater Winter Basher Preview”

2016 Spartan Invite Exchanges

This year’s Spartan Invite (also noted as MSU Invite in some past years) includes more Michigan teams (read: ALL of them) than historically seen. For the initial years, MSU has tried to focus on inviting out of state teams, giving MSU a great chance to see the League without ever leaving home! For many events we’d see a little Founding Member round robin including DePaul, Kent, OSU and MSU happening along the other invited teams.

But sometimes you can’t hold to tradition because of a multitude of reasons that I wouldn’t hold on anyone. In this case, Kent, BGSU, and DePaul join the fray. They also happen to be stalwart competitors at many past fall quarter Spartan Invites. I sometimes like to consider BGSU and DePaul part of the Michigan region for the pure fact they often play these teams more than anywhere else. Continue reading “2016 Spartan Invite Exchanges”

Maryland Dodgeball Invite Exchanges

A few low influence exchanges, a few predictive struggle games, and a slew of medium profile matches defines the games to be played at the Armory this Saturday. Could be a good data sampling, it will certainly be indicative of where each competing team ranks in the League. With four games scheduled for both low-games-played Stevenson and first-event-of-the-season Penn State, we will be able to have greater confidence in their ratings following the results this Saturday. Eastern teams, take advantage of the cheap gas and proximity between your schools!  Continue reading “Maryland Dodgeball Invite Exchanges”

CMU Dodgetober Fest Exchanges

A quick preview here:

CMU at home is a given a hefty boost, but is not out of range for MSU. If we take away this home court advantage, both teams are neck and neck. An MSU / SVSU match on neutral court isn’t out of reach for a SV upset. Pretty close, only about 5 points difference in ratings.

Good points can be gained for SV by upsetting either competitor. I’ve mentioned it before but it remains true with each new match: out of any team in Michigan, SV gains the most from winning.

High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
CMU MSU 52.484 49.308 0.682 1.318
CMU SVSU 53.167 43.968 0.080 1.920
MSU SVSU 48.625 43.888 0.526 1.474

Summit Street Slugfest Exchanges

Miami rejoins the NCDA after two seasons of inactivity. This is of great credit to a freshman who last played for Miami at Nationals 2014. It is also the first time a team will return after this sort of inactivity, in the history of the NCDA. Miami finished the 2014 Season with 33.208, and through two “regression to the means” Miami will reenter the 2017 season with a 37.987 rating. This will put Miami at about #17 in this week’s standings.

In terms of this third Summit Street Slugfest, the parity is spotty. We have a few potential minimum value matches here, but yet the same number of close ones. Akron, Miami, and BGSU are part of a highly competitive section of ratings and will see good competition in their matches. But OSU and Kent are old rivals, having participated in the first intercollegiate dodgeball match in history. They are the heavyweights of the day, Kent moreso with a home court boost.  Continue reading “Summit Street Slugfest Exchanges”

Pink Out 2: The Exchange Strikes Back

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Courtesy of Nick Irhin [Akron]
Akron holds a second Pink Out and I would love for this to continue as tradition. They’re in a great geographical position. But even more, Akron has some positive vibes to bring in some great competitors. For this event, we see three out of state teams and all these matches have good values on the Gonzalez exchange. The average rating gap is just 4.417, so our competitors have some great matches ahead of them this weekend.  Continue reading “Pink Out 2: The Exchange Strikes Back”

Pitt slated to become 40th Member Team

pitt-logoThis Saturday, the University of Pittsburgh Dodgeball Club hosts their first tournament and will become the 40th collegiate dodgeball organization to play in the NCDA. Pitt’s Induction Match is the first match of the day and their opponent is the honorable Akron, who joined as the 35th club who joined November 2014. Rounding out the competitors are Ohio and Kent, which will make for a great set of matches for any new team.

I am looking forward to the Pitt/Ohio match because new team matchups are always a highlight for me. I think this will be much more competitive than the current Gonzalez rating suggests, and I will actively compare this upcoming game to future meetings between the two teams.

I’m also looking at Kent/Akron as a good match. These two teams are basically coming from the same area, traveling a similar distance, and playing on a neutral but unfamiliar court. That sets up a great story in this author’s humble opinion.

Continue reading “Pitt slated to become 40th Member Team”

Towson Throwdown

The East Coast region will finally see its first set of games this weekend on Sunday at Towson University.  All of the teams participating are from Maryland and Virginia, which includes Towson, Maryland, Virginia Commonwealth, and Stevenson.  This tournament should prove to be tightly contested, and great opener for the East Coast.

Rank Team Gonzalez Rating
7 Towson 43.841+3
12 VCU 39.833
13 UMD 39.285
20 Stevenson 37.626

Continue reading “Towson Throwdown”

Cornhusker Clash

Cornhusker Clash (841 N 14th St, Lincoln, NE 68508)

This week kicks off the first tournament of the year for teams of Nebraska, DePaul, and Platteville. The Cornhusker Clash should be a blast and should provide some quality games for the teams participating. The last time that Nebraska held a tournament was two years ago and Platteville and DePaul attended. These teams all have experience which makes this a much different tournament than two years ago.

Let’s take a look at the teams at the Cornhusker Clash.  Continue reading “Cornhusker Clash”

Gonzalez Preview for the Death Valley Shootout

To kick off this weeks massive amount of games played (23+ matches in 4 geographically distinct locales), here are the exchanges for Death Valley! SVSU gets a plus 3 to their rating here for hosting. GVSU/CMU will be close; we don’t get to see this #1 and #2 matchup on a neutral court very often. The closest match of the day may go to CMU/SVSU with a rating gap of only 2.101 going into the day. And I’m personally looking forward to the JV match at the end of the day. All the matches this Saturday will count big for their team ratings.

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
11:00 GVSU CMU 53.984 50.548 0.656 1.344
12:30 CMU SVSU 49.891 48.431 0.854 1.146
2:00 GVSU SVSU 54.641 47.577 0.294 1.706
3:30 JV

The Gonzalez Ratings used in this preview are slightly different from previous years. We’ve adjusted the ratings from the start so that a team retains 75% of their rating from season to season. The remaining 25% is reverted to the mean for a particular season. Overall in this 75% carry over system, there’s been 189 technical upsets in 964 total ranked college dodgeball matches, a successful prediction rate of 80.39%. This is compared to the 81.74% success of a total rollover system we’ve used in the past.

While this system is less accurate in terms of the current data, the 75% figure is based on data reported by the Member Teams themselves. Averaging together, team player retention between seasons about 75% of their roster. This added variable helps give the system more “applied mathematical” accuracy that could be more accurate over time. Currently it’s a very small 1.35% variance, only 13 in 964 games.

Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 15

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Nationals 2016 was just over a week ago, but that doesn’t stop the content team from producing some articles.  This will be the first in a series of Way-Too-Early Top 15 rankings for next season.  Below is my personal opinion on who the tops teams will be heading into next year.  If you are interested in making a top 15 list of your own, feel free to contact any member of the content team and we will make it happen.  If you disagree with my list I expect to see your own top 15 written up! Continue reading “Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 15”

Gonzalez Exchanges for Nationals 2016

Games played during a Nationals event are worth double, so the exchanges here are calculated then multiplied by two. Taking that, an exchange for an even match will be around two.

We have 10 minimum exchange matches of the 27 total games on Saturday. That’s a bit higher than the League average (242 of 920 matches is 26%, 10/27 is 37%), but take into consideration this is largely a you-call-em focus to scheduling. If I had to schedule GVSU to play three games on the day, they’d have to play #2-4: CMU, MSU, or JMU. OSU is their next higher opponent, but the initial gap is still 11.495 which forces a minimum exchange. Continue reading “Gonzalez Exchanges for Nationals 2016”

Maryland Dodgeball Classic Gonzalez Exchanges

Maryland Dodgeball Classic will be held this Sunday, April 3rd. It seems they share a similar acronym with the Michigan Dodgeball Cup. Heh. MDDC?

  • Towson v UMD (h)
  • UMD (h) v VCU
  • Towson v VCU

We still have a number of games that will be played on the Saturday before at OSU’s event. These team’s exchanges won’t change because they won’t play any of the competitors at OSU, but “total” numbers may vary ever so slightly because there will be more total ranked games and possibly more upsets.  Continue reading “Maryland Dodgeball Classic Gonzalez Exchanges”