Major Shakeups from The War II

Akron hosted the second installment of The War on the 10th and 11th, and the name could not have been more appropriate.  The tournament featured 8 of the top 14 schools, a brand new team in West Virginia, and some hungry teams looking to climb the ranks in Miami and Akron.  There were a total of 21 matches played and 10(!) of them were technical upsets.  On top of that, coming into the weekend there was almost a perfect flip in teams ranked 3-7.  We have described “tiers” in the past to describe the placement of teams, and the 3-7 ranked teams have established a tier that is nearly impossible to make heads or tails of at this point in the season.  Let’s take a look at the specifics of what went down in the state of Ohio.

Continue reading “Major Shakeups from The War II”

The War II

AKRON – Rec: In The War II,
JMU def Miami 4-1
PSU def WVU 7-0 (Induction)
VCU def Akron 4-0
BGSU def PSU 3-2
Akron def WVU 8-0
SVSU def JMU 4-3 OT
Towson def Kent 4-1
Ohio def PSU 3-1
Kent def JMU 4-1
Miami def WVU 4-0
Miami def Akron 3-2
BGSU def VCU 2-1
SVSU def Kent 3-1
VCU def Ohio 3-2
Towson def BGSU 3-2

AKRON – Central Hower HS: Day 2 of The War II,
SVSU def Towson 3-1
JMU def Ohio 4-1
SVSU def CSU 5-0
Towson def Ohio 4-0
Towson def Akron 5-1
Akron def CSU 4-1

Status Quo Ante Bellum, 2018

The state existing before the war

In the same way I explored last year, I will preview the War happening this weekend at Akron. This year Akron plays host again, with some new teams brought into the mix.

Rating Team Record
48.815 (#3) Kent 8-4
48.483 (#4) JMU 7-2
48.360 (#5) BGSU 13-5
47.240 (#6) Towson 14-3
45.802 (#7) SVSU 6-9
41.632 (#11) VCU 5-6
41.525 (#12) PSU 3-3
40.227 (#14) Ohio 12-10
40.000 (–) WVU Inducting
38.218 (#23) Miami 6-4
36.364 (#33) Akron (H) 4-11
35.181 (#34) CSU 3-7

I’ve marked this as opinion, since a predictive pre-event preview article deals with a lot of predictive analysis. It is different than the quantitative approach of the Standings. When we work with predictions, we can only be so accurate until the opinion floats in.

First, some housekeeping. Continue reading “Status Quo Ante Bellum, 2018”

The War

AKRON – The War: Finals results from both days.

Akron def CSU 5-0
MSU def VCU 3-0
GVSU def Ohio 5-1
DePaul def CSU 5-1
MSU def Akron 5-0
VCU def Ohio 5-0
Akron def DePaul 4-1
GVSU def MSU 3-2 OT
Ohio def CSU 3-1
GVSU def VCU 2-0
CSU def BW 0-0 (F)
DePaul def BW 0-0 (F)
Akron def BW 0-0 (F)

Kent def Ohio 3-0
BGSU def VCU 2-1
Ohio def Akron 3-2
PSU def DePaul 4-0
Kent def VCU 2-0
PSU def BGSU 2-1
BGSU def DePaul 4-0
Kent def PSU 3-1

All is Fair in Love and War

It’s time to take a break from the craziness that has been the Captain’s Page and all of the rule proposals popping up.  Let’s make dodgeball great again!  This weekend the University of Akron will be hosting The War, which is the largest and last tournament of the 2016-2017 regular season.

11 teams from 5 different states will come to Akron, OH to compete in The War.  Needless to say, it’s a pretty big deal, with a lot of implications on seeding heading into Nationals, take a look at an article by our VP Zigmas Maloni, Status Quo Ante Bellum, on the possible exchanges.  There has also been a lot of talk off the court heading into this weekend, which I’m sure will translate into some exciting on court performances.

Continue reading “All is Fair in Love and War”

Status Quo Ante Bellum

The state existing before the war

Rank Rating Team
1 56.593 GVSU
7 45.474 MSU
8 43.786 Kent
10 42.489 VCU
11 42.484 PSU
13 41.547 BGSU
16 38.704 Ohio
17 38.078 DePaul
19 37.893 CSU
22 37.459 BW
26 36.737 Akron

I’ve marked this as opinion, as I include stuff we don’t track statistically.

A technical upset is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The first day of the War includes so many closely rated opponents that it is incredibly unlikely we will see every match predicted correctly. In our Gonzalez system’s current, straight success rate, the higher seeded team will win four of five games. However, this is less likely to apply as the rating gap between teams increases. Any of GVSU’s scheduled games are unlikely to result in a technical upset. CSU vs Akron is much fuzzier; each team has near identical ratings, being only 0.157 difference.

That said, these are the kinds of matches that are a test to the system. The wins and losses and overtimes (8.19% chance of occurrence) at the end of the day will better determine each team’s rating going into Nationals. We’ve never had this many great, even match games for Nationals before. I’m excited to see the results.  Continue reading “Status Quo Ante Bellum”