Ohio Dodgeball Cup Review

This year’s Ohio Dodgeball Cup was nothing short of exciting this past weekend. I don’t believe that anyone could have predicted that outcome. Congratulations are in order for the Ohio Bobcats, your 2017 Ohio Dodgeball Cup Champions! I have to be honest, I thought it would be a long time before I would ever say that! But they did it, and they deserved it.

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Standings as of 2016-02-20

With so many teams playing this Sunday, we have a shakeup in the top 7… into an apparent top 6. I wouldn’t count anyone out. While it would be big news if GVSU gave up their now 6 game lead, the ratings of the rest of the top 8 are competitive. Plenty of weeks left and a few Nationals games to go before we truly see the shaping of a Championship bracket.

Nine of our 29 active member teams played this Sunday:

Team Pre Post Change
SVSU 47.267 48.708 1.441
JMU 48.016 49.161 1.145
GVSU 55.440 56.356 0.916
Towson 47.768 47.972 0.204
UVA 37.284 37.425 0.142
CMU 49.615 49.624 0.010
UMD 37.437 36.909 -0.528
VCU 43.937 42.975 -0.963
MSU 48.171 45.804 -2.367

There were five technical upsets in the day (of 14 games), two at Border War and three at the MDC. All of the three Overtime games on Sunday were technical upsets as well.

CMU def MSU 2-1  (1.024 exchange)
SVSU def MSU 4-1 (1.012)
SVSU def CMU 3-2 OT (0.596)
JMU def Towson 3-2 OT (0.523)
UVA def UMD 3-2 OT (0.508)

The greatest technical upset of the day was SVSU def CMU in Overtime. Saginaw gained a solid chunk of rating off of Central, but had they defeated CMU in regulation we would have seen SV at #2.

The largest rating change across the day was the CMU/MSU technical upset, but still pretty minor compared to the history of technical upsets across the Gonzalez system. All five of these matches can be considered strength adjusting upsets; allowing for upsets like these is crucial to maintaining the balance of the system. An allowable tolerance for the overall system success rate. Continue reading “Standings as of 2016-02-20”

Standings as of 2017-02-14

The end Gonzalez Rating changes for each participant following the Bobcat Bash:

Team Pre Post Change
BGSU 40.679 42.168 1.489
CMU 48.594 49.615 1.021
Ohio 34.768 35.044 0.276
Kent 44.893 45.139 0.246
BW 36.571 36.630 0.059
Akron 35.366 35.343 -0.023
WKU 42.564 41.906 -0.658
Miami 34.438 32.028 -2.410

There were no technical upsets in the Bobcat Bash, but there were a number of decent weight matches. Five teams increased their ratings, if only slightly in some cases. BGSU gained the most points over the weekend, owing to their three wins against comparative opponents.  Bowling Green had about 5 rating points on each competitor, which relates to about a 0.5 point gain for each win. Solid, steady gains.  Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-02-14”

BEAST VI Recap

We already heard from the NCDA Chief of Content on his overreaction from the BEAST VI this weekend. But a couple of days have passed and it’s time for a more reserved, balanced reaction to the wild and entertaining day of dodgeball that took place in Harrisonburg this past Saturday. A reminder once again of this weekend’s results.
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Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05

After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.

There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.

Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play.  Continue reading “Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05”

BEAST VI Tournament Reaction (Overreaction)

What just happened?!?

Has anyone figured that out yet?

In case you’ve been living under a rock the past few days, James Madison University played host to a number of schools from across the country in the 6th annual Big East Appalachian Super Tournament, aka BEAST this weekend.

To put it simply, this was one for the ages.  Before I dig in on my “reaction” (or should I say: overreaction), here are the results from the tourney:

JAMES MADISON – UREC

Results:

JMU def OSU 4-1
UK def Towson 3-2 OT
JMU def UK 3-1
MSU def VCU 3-2 OT
Towson def MSU 3-1
VCU def OSU 3-2
JMU def MSU 3-1
UK def OSU 3-0
Towson def JMU 2-0
VCU def UK 2-1 OT
MSU def OSU 3-0

Records:

JMU: 3-1
Towson: 2-1
VCU: 2-1
MSU: 2-2
UK: 2-2
OSU: 0-4

Continue reading “BEAST VI Tournament Reaction (Overreaction)”

Gonzalez Standings as of 2017-02-01

This system is slightly different than the Gonzalez system used in the past few standings posts. In order to better account for home court advantage (HCA), we now give only 1 point advantage to the home team, where it used to be +3. Under the new HCA variable, the system has a greater success rate of 81.60% as opposed to the old 79.42%. In 1103 ranked matches, there are 203 upsets as opposed to 227.

In the next few days, look for a report proving +1 is better than +3. Proceeding this report, an Exec Board vote is scheduled to put this +1 point Home Court Advantage into the system to have it in place for Nationals. Continue reading “Gonzalez Standings as of 2017-02-01”

MSU vs. GVSU Doubleheader Recap

Today in East Lansing, two Michigan schools took part in a double header that will likely be the last Michigan v. Michigan games prior to the Michigan Dodgeball Cup (MDC).

Michigan State played host to Grand Valley in the second doubleheader of the season for these two teams.

The results from the doubleheader are as follows:

MSU def GVSU 2-1 (OT)

GVSU def MSU 3-0

Here are my picks for the most notable players from today’s matches:

Continue reading “MSU vs. GVSU Doubleheader Recap”