With so many teams playing this Sunday, we have a shakeup in the top 7… into an apparent top 6. I wouldn’t count anyone out. While it would be big news if GVSU gave up their now 6 game lead, the ratings of the rest of the top 8 are competitive. Plenty of weeks left and a few Nationals games to go before we truly see the shaping of a Championship bracket.
Nine of our 29 active member teams played this Sunday:
There were five technical upsets in the day (of 14 games), two at Border War and three at the MDC. All of the three Overtime games on Sunday were technical upsets as well.
CMU def MSU 2-1 (1.024 exchange)
SVSU def MSU 4-1 (1.012)
SVSU def CMU 3-2 OT (0.596)
JMU def Towson 3-2 OT (0.523)
UVA def UMD 3-2 OT (0.508)
The greatest technical upset of the day was SVSU def CMU in Overtime. Saginaw gained a solid chunk of rating off of Central, but had they defeated CMU in regulation we would have seen SV at #2.
The largest rating change across the day was the CMU/MSU technical upset, but still pretty minor compared to the history of technical upsets across the Gonzalez system. All five of these matches can be considered strength adjusting upsets; allowing for upsets like these is crucial to maintaining the balance of the system. An allowable tolerance for the overall system success rate. Continue reading “Standings as of 2016-02-20”
The end Gonzalez Rating changes for each participant following the Bobcat Bash:
There were no technical upsets in the Bobcat Bash, but there were a number of decent weight matches. Five teams increased their ratings, if only slightly in some cases. BGSU gained the most points over the weekend, owing to their three wins against comparative opponents. Bowling Green had about 5 rating points on each competitor, which relates to about a 0.5 point gain for each win. Solid, steady gains. Continue reading “Standings as of 2017-02-14”
We already heard from the NCDA Chief of Content on his overreaction from the BEAST VI this weekend. But a couple of days have passed and it’s time for a more reserved, balanced reaction to the wild and entertaining day of dodgeball that took place in Harrisonburg this past Saturday. A reminder once again of this weekend’s results. Continue reading “BEAST VI Recap”
After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.
There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.
Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play. Continue reading “Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05”
In case you’ve been living under a rock the past few days, James Madison University played host to a number of schools from across the country in the 6th annual Big East Appalachian Super Tournament, aka BEAST this weekend.
To put it simply, this was one for the ages. Before I dig in on my “reaction” (or should I say: overreaction), here are the results from the tourney:
JAMES MADISON – UREC
JMU def OSU 4-1
UK def Towson 3-2 OT
JMU def UK 3-1
MSU def VCU 3-2 OT
Towson def MSU 3-1
VCU def OSU 3-2
JMU def MSU 3-1
UK def OSU 3-0
Towson def JMU 2-0
VCU def UK 2-1 OT
MSU def OSU 3-0
This system is slightly different than the Gonzalez system used in the past few standings posts. In order to better account for home court advantage (HCA), we now give only 1 point advantage to the home team, where it used to be +3. Under the new HCA variable, the system has a greater success rate of 81.60% as opposed to the old 79.42%. In 1103 ranked matches, there are 203 upsets as opposed to 227.
In the next few days, look for a report proving +1 is better than +3. Proceeding this report, an Exec Board vote is scheduled to put this +1 point Home Court Advantage into the system to have it in place for Nationals. Continue reading “Gonzalez Standings as of 2017-02-01”
As UW-Whitewater joins the NCDA as the 44th School to compete, we now have 29 active teams listed in the Standings. We only had 3 matches played in the West since the last Standings post.
To start backwards, UWP’s slight, technical upset win over a home UWW netted them 1.025 Gonzalez points and was 211th of 221 total upsets. That’s the low 4th percentile.
DePaul’s upset win over the home court boosted UWW have the teams exchanging 1.589 in a relatively close match. It is close to the 91st percentile, with just 19 upsets greater than it. We should look out for another UWW/DePaul matchup when Whitewater has more games under their belt (at least 6).
A UWW venue is the most neutral location for a UWP/DePaul matchup (just a two hour drive!) and marks great potential for a new event location, as long as UW Whitewater gets gym space sorted out. This weekend marks the 10th time UWP and DePaul have played, although they’ve played a few times before accurate record keeping started in 2010. UWP is 10-0 versus DePaul, with 3 of those being minor upset wins and even two where UWP topped a DePaul home team. This year DePaul has a much closer rating to UWP, who still leads that middle section of the Standings along with VCU.
2013-03-02: UWP takes 1.330 on DePaul (Home)
2010-10-23: UWP takes 1.159 at WIU
2016-10-16: UWP takes 1.146 on DePaul (Home)
2016-12-04: UWP takes 0.744 at UWW
2016-09-24: UWP takes 0.663 (adjusted) in OT at UNL
On December 4, 2016 Platteville, Whitewater, and DePaul came together to play in the Whitewater Winter Basher in Whitewater, Wisconsin. With Whitewater’s first game, the league officially added another club and Platteville is no longer the only team from Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the results of the games played. Continue reading “Whitewater Winter Basher Recap”