Worlds 2018, Day 2 Previews

LOS ANGELES – Hangar Studios: The World Dodgeball Federation is holding Worlds 2018 (WDBF Dodgeball World Championships 2018) over October 10-13, and USA Dodgeball is playing host. If you missed the feature article detailing the mechanics of this system, take a gander at the Complete History of the WDBF. Day 1 Round Robin results:

HKG def ARG 13-1 (M)
AUS def CAN 7-5 (M)
USA def ITA 13-1 (M)
MYS def MEX 5-4 (W)

MYS def CAN 8-6 (M)
USA def ARG 18-2 (M)
NZL def ITA 8-4 (M)
HKG def MEX 13-3 (W)

MYS def CAN 8-6 (M)
USA def ARG 18-2 (M)
NZL def ITA 8-4 (M)
HKG def MEX 13-3 (W)

CAN def MYS 11-3 (W)
USA def ITA 20-0 (W)
AUS def MEX 8-1 (W)

AUS def ITA 11-2 (M)
USA def HKG 11-0 (M)
MEX def NZL 7-1 (M)
CAN def ARG 21-1 (M)
MYS def AUS 5-4 (W)

USA def NZL 11-1 (M)
CAN def HKG 12-6 (M)
AUS def MEX 6-3 (M)

CAN def AUS 9-7 (W)
MYS def ARG 14-2 (M)
USA def HKG 11-7 (W)
ITA def MEX 8-5 (W)

[OT matches were not noted]

[Source]

Standings after Day 1

WDBF Womens, Sorted by Rating

Standing Nation Rating Status
1 🇨🇦 Canada 47.628 (+5.667) 2017 4th
2 🇲🇾 Malaysia 45.220 (-0.240) 2017 Gold
3 🇺🇸 United States 45.217 (+0.463) 2017 Bronze
4 🇦🇺 Australia 42.629 (-2.559) 2017 Silver
5 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 42.514 (+1.206) 2018 Attending
6 🇮🇹 Italy 37.156 (+0.239) 2018 Attending
7 🇲🇽 Mexico 34.356 (-4.777) 2018 Attending
8 🇨🇲 Cameroon 41.350* 2018 Non Attending
9 🇨🇫 Central African Republic 38.650* 2018 Non Attending

* Provisional Rating (<6 matches)

WDBF Mens, Sorted by Rating

Standing Nation Rating Status
1 🇲🇾 Malaysia 49.907 (+1.242) 2017 Gold
2 🇦🇺 Australia 48.634 (+3.757) 2017 Bronze
3 🇺🇸 United States 46.696 (+3.923) 2017 4th
4 🇨🇦 Canada 44.840 (+0.782) 2017 Silver
5 🇲🇽 Mexico 44.337 (+2.505) 2018 Attending
6 🇳🇿 New Zealand 38.562 (-2.229) 2018 Attending
7 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 37.242 (-2.353) 2018 Attending
8 🇮🇹 Italy 35.284 (-2.515) 2018 Attending
9 🇦🇷 Argentina 34.888 (-5.112) 2018 Attending
10 🇨🇫 Central African Republic 42.135* 2018 Non Attending
11 🇨🇲 Cameroon 40.215* 2018 Non Attending
12 🇹🇩 Chad 39.000* 2018 Non Attending
13 🇬🇦 Gabon 38.650* 2018 Non Attending

* Provisional Rating (<6 matches)

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team.

The overall success rate of the WDBF Mens system is currently 79.59% based on 30 technical upsets in 147 ranked matches played since 2013-09-27.

The overall success rate of the WDBF Womens system is currently 69.44% based on 33 technical upsets in 108 ranked matches played since 2013-09-27.

MYS def AUS 5-4 (W)

42.195 def 47.321, exchanging 3.025

The largest technical upset of Day 1 in terms of having the largest rating gap, this technical upset ranks 8 of 33 technical upsets, in the 75th percentile. The Women’s division is more volatile than the Mens as having more technical upsets, especially seen here: The 2017 Gold was upset earlier in the day against Canada by 11-3. That upset triggered the margin of victory modifer, and ended up capping out at the 4.000 max exchange value. Here, AUS was slated to win after winning two games and being up +2.133 going into this match. A close MYS victory here helped gained ground lost over the day.

CAN def MYS 11-3 (W)

41.962 def 46.195, exchanging 4.000

12 of 33 technical upsets, in the 63d percentile. As covered above, this high scoring match had a high point differential (5 or more) so triggered the Margin of Victory modifier on the exchange. The end exchange was capped at 4.000, part of a measure to ensure one match can’t skew the ratings so much. The rating gap ranks 4th for technical upsets with the margin of victory modifier, and one of six matches that have the 4.000  maximum possible exchange value.

ITA def MEX 8-5 (W)

34.756 def 36.756, exchanging 2.400

In their second Worlds, Italy Women’s takes their first match WDBF win in program history. At this point, Italy was the lowest rated team pull a technical upset. This upset ranks 22 of 32, in the 33d percentile.

AUS def USA 7-5 (W)

45.187 def 44.754+1, exchanging 2.113

A 2017 Silver def 2017 Bronze (at home). The second least influential technical upset in terms of rating points exchanged, this minor technical upset ranks 31 of 32. USA had the narrow favor because of home court advantage is given 1 rating point. When closely rated teams face each other, the stake is large for both teams and harder to accurately predict. While not statistically significant in terms of big upsets, these are worth more for both teams.

USA def HKG 11-7 (W)

43.119+1 def 44.613, exchanging 2.099

The least influential of all the technical upset in terms of rating points exchanged, this brings USA back up a little for what they lost to the AUS upset. Hong Kong however remains a relevant team in this Worlds, and finished Day 1 within close proximity to the 4th place rating and 2017 Silver medalist Australia.

MEX def HKG 6-5 (M)

41.832 def 42.716, exchanging 2.177

Marked as one of the games to watch in the Day 1 Previews, Mexico Men’s took an minor technical upset over Hong Kong in a close one point differential. Close matches don’t get a specific bonus in the current system (and we aren’t sure if this was an Overtime situation) but these close contests have a significant weight for both teams. Mexico’s win here put them in striking distance of Canada’s rating, so it will be telling to see where that game’s outcome in Day 2 Round Robin. This technical upset ranked #23 of 30.

HKG def ARG 13-1 (M)

39.595 def 40.000*, exchanging 3.122

Argentina’s round robin games will be played under their provisional rating, as the system needs about 3-6 matches to adjust. Hong Kong takes a minor technical upset here which is not uncommon when an experienced team faces a new team. HKG won the game with room to spare, so gets an exchange boost from the margin of victory modifier. Ranks 28 of 30 in historical technical upsets.

Day 2, October 11 Round Robin

Dissecting our Line Previews:

MEX-M (44.337) v ITA-M (35.284) for 0.189 / 3.811 [5+ 0.284 / 4.000]
  • Ct – the Court listed on the schedule
  • MEX-M – The shortform ID for the Mexico Men’s team. The three letters will differ depending on the Member Nation represented. M for Mens and W for the Womens Division.
  • ITA-M (35.284) – Italy Mens has an rating of 35.284 going into this match. The high rating is listed first, the lower rating is listed second.
  • for 0.189 – This match will have an exchange of 0.189, if the match was decided by four or fewer points. Exchanges for Worlds will fall within 0.020 and 4.000. The closer the exchange is to 2.000, the more the two ratings are evenly matched going into the matchup.
  • for 0.189 / 3.811 – The 3.811 value is the exchange if the match was a technical upset, and decided by four or fewer points.
  • [5+ 0.284 / 4.000] – 0.284 is the value of the exchange if the match was decided by five or more points and the higher rated team won as predicted.
  • [5+ 0.284 / 4.000] – 4.000 is the value of the exchange if the match was decided by five or more points and the lower rating won in an upset.

For each given Worlds match, there are four potential exchanges:

  1. Predicted – the higher rated team won
  2. Technical Upset – if the lower rated team defeated the higher rated team
  3. Predicted with Margin of Victory modifier applied – If the margin of victory was five or more points, the Exchange would be multiplied by 1.5 before the Worlds modifier is applied.
  4. Technical Upset with Margin of Victory – the lower rated team defeated the higher rated team by five or more points. These tend to be the highest exchanges, and are the more valuable wins.

In Mens, 84 of 131 ranked matches (57.14%) have been decided by a score of five or more points. 13 of these 73 matches (15.48%) have been technical upsets, of the 30 technical upsets in the Men’s Division.

In Womens, 48 of 108 ranked matches (44.44%) have been decided by a score of five or more points. 10 of these 43 matches (20.83%) have been technical upsets, of the 33 technical upsets in the Women’s Division.

The following exchanges have a caveat. The predicted exchange is used in a rolling calculation. If there is a technical upset (roughly a 25% chance), or a blowout match triggering the Margin of Victory modifier (50% chance), the result will affect the rest of the schedule.

It is very likely that matches at the end of the day will have different values because of the prior performance of the day. The Gonzalez system is a rolling system. Ratings are adjusted after each match.

Channel: bit.ly/usadodgeballchannel
DAY 2 – COURT 1: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day2court1
DAY 2 – COURT 2: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day2court2
DAY 2 – COURT 3: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day2court3
DAY 2 – COURT 4: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day2court4
DAY 2 – COURT 5: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day2court5

3:30 PDT

  1. MEX-M (44.337) v ITA-M (35.284) for 0.189 / 3.811 [5+ 0.284 / 4.000]
  2. CAN-M (44.840) v NZL-M (38.562) for 0.744 / 3.256 [5+ 1.116 / 4.000]
  3. AUS-M (48.634) v USA-M (47.696) for 1.812 / 2.188 [5+ 2.719 / 3.281]
  4. MYS-M (49.907) v HKG-M (37.242) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
  5. MYS-W (45.220) v USA-W (46.217) for 2.200 / 1.800 [5+ 3.299 / 2.701]

Games to Watch based on shallow rating gap:

Ct3 AUS-M v USA-M
Ct5 USA-W v MYS-W

The rest of the games may be potential blowout games given the large rating gaps, but both USA home teams should have a good showing against these closely rated opponents.

4:30 PDT

  1. NZL-M (37.818) v HKG-M (37.222) for 1.881 / 2.119 [5+ 2.821 / 3.179]
  2. MYS-M (49.927) v ITA-M (35.094) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
  3. AUS-M (50.447) v ARG-M (34.888) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
  4. CAN-M (45.585) v MEX-M (44.527) for 1.788 / 2.212 [5+ 2.683 / 3.317]
  5. CAN-W (47.628) v ITA-W (37.156) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]

Games to watch:

Ct1 NZL-M v HKG-M – New Zealand and Hong Kong will both be looking for a win, and this is one of the shallowest rating gaps in Day 2’s Round Robin. It should be a competitive game.

Ct4 CAN-M v MEX-M – It will be really difficult to choose between watching Canadian Mens or Canadian Womens, as the Men take on an extremely hungry Mexican team on their best historical performance. This is a closely rated match, and if Mexico can take an upset they will be very happy with the Rating Exchange. Mexico needs to keep it below 5 points in any case.

Ct5 CAN-W v ITA-W – Italy Womens is trending like Mexico Mens, and has the largest rating boost after their wins on Day 1. Canada is still in a solid third, but Italy would has a reasonable statistical chance at securing a large upset in this matchup.

5:30 PDT

  1. USA-W (47.419) v MEX-W (34.356) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
  2. CAN-W (47.648) v HKG-W (42.514) for 0.973 / 3.027 [5+ 1.460 / 4.000]
  3. MYS-W (47.419) v ITA-W (37.136) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]

Not many games to watch here, as they are predicted to be blowout games. If you like watching a lot of points, this is the round for you. But even so, tracking progress of Italy is worth looking into. Even though it is statistically unlikely, it does not mean it is impossible.  CAN v HKG is the shallowest rating gap (5.135) and the largest gap of an upset was -8.475.

6:30 PDT

  1. AUS-M (50.467) v MYS-M (49.947) for 1.896 / 2.104 [5+ 2.844 / 3.156]
  2. USA-M (45.884) v MEX-M (42.738) for 1.371 / 2.629 [5+ 2.056 / 3.944]
  3. CAN-M (47.373) v ITA-M (35.074) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
  4. NZL-M (39.698) v ARG-M (34.868) for 1.034 / 2.966 [5+ 1.551 / 4.000]

Ct1 MYS-M v AUS-M – Australia is on a tear (+3.757). They face 2017 Gold (+1.242) and the Rating Exchanges are high stakes for both teams.

Ct2 USA-M v MEX-M – Again, Mexico is hungry as they face their final North American opponent on their home court. This will set the tone for Mexico’s later match against South American Argentina.

7:30 PDT

  1. USA-W (47.439) v CAN-W (48.621) for 2.236 / 1.764 [5+ 3.355 / 2.645]
  2. AUS-W (42.629) v ITA-W (37.116) for 0.897 / 3.103 [5+ 1.346 / 4.000]
  3. MYS-W (47.439) v HKG-W (41.541) for 0.820 / 3.180 [5+ 1.230 / 4.000]
  4. AUS-M (52.363) v HKG-M (37.222) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]

Ct2 AUS-W v ITA-W – As we get further into the day, our predicted exchanges become less valuable. However, Italy is up and Australia is down based on Day 1’s results. Keeping the game close is in Italy’s benefit, so if they lose it won’t be by a greater margin, which could knock them below Hong Kong.

8:30 PDT

  1. CAN-M (47.393) v USA-M (47.255) for 1.972 / 2.028 [5+ 2.959 / 3.041]
  2. ITA-M (35.054) v ARG-M (33.834) for 1.756 / 2.244 [5+ 2.634 / 3.366]
  3. MYS-M (48.051) v MEX-M (41.367) for 0.663 / 3.337 [5+ 0.995 / 4.000]

Ct1 CAN-M v USA-M – This late in the day, this match could be this close or even turned around in favor, though these teams are in similar rating tier. This could be a preview for a future medal match this weekend.

9:30 PDT

  1. MYS-M (48.714) v USA-M (45.282) for 1.314 / 2.686 [5+ 1.971 / 4.000]
  2. AUS-M (52.383) v NZL-M (40.732) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
  3. MEX-M (40.704) v ARG-M (32.078) for 0.275 / 3.725 [5+ 0.412 / 4.000]
  4. HKG-M (37.202) v ITA-M (36.810) for 1.922 / 2.078 [5+ 2.883 / 3.117]
  5. CAN-W (46.385) v MEX-W (34.336) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]

Ct4 HKG-M v ITA-M – One of the closer rating gaps based on an 50% likely schedule with no technical upsets and no blowout games. Still, both these teams will likely be looking for their first match wins and that makes for exciting dodgeball.

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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