LOS ANGELES – Hangar Studios: The World Dodgeball Federation is holding Worlds 2018 (WDBF Dodgeball World Championships 2018) over October 10-13, and USA Dodgeball is playing host. We’ll follow along and check out the potential Rating Exchanges for each game in the schedule.
If you missed the feature article detailing the mechanics of this system, take a gander at the Complete History of the WDBF.
October 10 – Round Robin
Dissecting our Line Previews:
Ct1 ARG-M (40.000) v HKG-M (39.595) for 1.919 / 2.081 [5+ 2.878 / 3.122]
- Ct – the Court listed on the schedule
- ARG-M – The shortform ID for the Argentina Men’s team. The three letters will differ depending on the Member Nation represented. M for Mens and W for the Womens Division.
- HKG-M (39.595) – Hong Kong Mens has an rating of 39.595 going into this match. The high rating is listed first, the lower rating is listed second.
- for 1.919 – This match will have an exchange of 1.919, if the match was decided by four or fewer points. Exchanges for Worlds will fall within 0.020 and 4.000. The closer the exchange is to 2.000, the more the two ratings are evenly matched going into the matchup.
- for 1.919 / 2.081 – The 2.081 value is the exchange if the match was a technical upset, and decided by four or fewer points.
- [5+ 2.878 / 3.122] – 2.878 is the value of the exchange if the match was decided by five or more points and the higher rated team won as predicted.
- [5+ 2.878 / 3.122] – 3.122 is the value of the exchange if the match was decided by five or more points and the lower rating won in an upset.
For each given Worlds match, there are four potential exchanges:
- Predicted – the higher rated team won
- Technical Upset – if the lower rated team defeated the higher rated team
- Predicted with Margin of Victory modifier applied – If the margin of victory was five or more points, the Exchange would be multiplied by 1.5 before the Worlds modifier is applied.
- Technical Upset with Margin of Victory – the lower rated team defeated the higher rated team by five or more points. These tend to be the highest exchanges, and are the more valuable wins.
In Mens, 73 of 131 ranked matches (55.73%) have been decided by a score of five or more points. 12 of these 73 matches (16.44%) have been technical upsets, of the 28 technical upsets in the Men’s Division.
In Womens, 43 of 97 ranked matches (44.33%) have been decided by a score of five or more points. 9 of these 43 matches (20.93%) have been technical upsets, of the 28 technical upsets in the Women’s Division.
The following exchanges have a caveat. The predicted exchange is used in a rolling calculation. If there is a technical upset (roughly a 25% chance), or a blowout match triggering the Margin of Victory modifier (50% chance), the result will affect the rest of the schedule.
It is very likely that matches at the end of the day will have different values because of the prior performance of the day. The Gonzalez system is a rolling system. Ratings are adjusted after each match.
DAY 1 – COURT 1: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day1court1
DAY 1 – COURT 2: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day1court2
DAY1 – COURT 3: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day1court3
DAY 1 – COURT 4: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day1court4
DAY 1 – COURT 5: bit.ly/wdbf2018-day1court5
- ARG-M (40.000*) v HKG-M (39.595) for 1.919 / 2.081 [5+ 2.878 / 3.122]
- AUS-M (44.877) v CAN-M (44.058) for 1.836 / 2.164 [5+ 2.754 / 3.246]
- USA-M (43.773) v ITA-M (37.799) for 0.805 / 3.195 [5+ 1.208 / 4.000]
- MYS-W (45.460) v MEX-W (39.132) for 0.734 / 3.266 [5+ 1.102 / 4.000]
Games to Watch based on close ratings
Ct1 ARG-M v HKG-M – Argentina enters the system with a 40.000 in their first ranked match in the WDBF. The League average is 42.800 so they enter in slightly below the middle. It takes a few matches to get adjusted in the system and bust out of the provisional rating status, so we’ll have to keep tabs on how ARG performs throughout the day. Hong Kong could have the experience to knock off a minor technical upset.
Ct2 AUS-M v CAN-M – The 2017 Silver and Bronze match up in the first round. Canada had an extra game in the 2017 season; a loss against Malaysia for Gold caused them to dip slightly below what Australia ended the 2017 year with. In terms of ratings, Australia gets the slight favor here in a very closely rated matchup.
- HKG-W (41.308) v ITA-W (36.917) for 1.122 / 2.878 [5+ 1.683 / 4.317]
- USA-W (45.754) v AUS-W (45.187) for 1.887 / 2.113 [5+ 2.830 / 3.170]
- MYS-M (48.665) v NZL-M (40.791) for 0.425 / 3.575 [5+ 0.638 / 5.362]
- MEX-M (41.832) v HKG-M (37.676) for 1.169 / 2.831 [5+ 1.753 / 4.247]
Games to Watch based on upset potential
Ct1 HKG-W v ITA-W – Hong Kong Women’s is rated comparatively high and they have a long history in the WDBF. Italy has one Worlds under their belt, but an upset by them is not out of the question here. A close technical upset is not statistically unlikely in historical terms. HKG def ITA 16-3 (W) at Worlds 2017, for a 2.306 rating exchange.
Ct2 USA-W v AUS-W – USA Women’s is coming off a 2017 Bronze medal against Australia’s 2017 Silver. With the home court advantage of one rating point, USA nabs the narrow favor for this match. The initial ratings are close, and any outcome has a decent chance. AUS def USA 9-8 (W) in the 2017 Round Robin.
- MYS-M (49.090) v CAN-M (42.222) for 0.626 / 3.374 [5+ 0.940 / 4.000]
- USA-M (44.578) v ARG-M (41.919*) for 1.468 / 2.532 [5+ 2.202 / 3.798]
- NZL-M (40.366) v ITA-M (36.994) for 1.326 / 2.674 [5+ 1.988 / 4.000]
- HKG-W (42.429) v MEX-W (38.398) for 1.194 / 2.806 [5+ 1.791 / 4.000]
* Provisional rating
Games to watch based on upset potential
Ct3 NZL-M v ITA-M
Ct4 HKG-W v MEX-W
Argentina second match may be worth looking into to evaluate their performance, but these two games are worth more to their competitors. This would be a solid opportunity for the lower seeds, Italy and Mexico, to nab upsets that are juicy but not statistically out of reach.
- MYS-W (46.195) v CAN-W (41.962) for 1.153 / 2.847 [5+ 1.730 / 4.000]
- USA-W (47.641) v ITA-W (35.795) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
- AUS-W (43.301) v MEX-W (38.398) for 1.019 / 2.981 [5+ 1.529 / 4.000]
Game to watch:
Ct1 MYS-W v CAN-W – Another wider rating gap where an upset exchange is juicy but not unobtainable. This is the closest rating gap of the three, so Canada will be fighting while Malaysia plays defense. Statistical defense. I’m not doing gameplay previews!
This far into the day, our predictive numbers might be falling apart. As long as the results are posted following the match conclusion, and I will be around, I will try to give mid day rating updates.
- AUS-M (46.047) v ITA-M (35.668) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
- USA-M (46.047) v HKG-M (36.507) for 0.092 / 3.908 [5+ 0.138 / 4.000]
- MEX-M (43.001) v NZL-M (41.692) for 1.738 / 2.262 [5+ 2.607 / 3.393]
- CAN-M (41.596) v ARG-M (40.451) for 1.771 / 2.229 [5+ 2.657 / 3.343]
- MYS-W (47.348) v AUS-W (44.320) for 1.394 / 2.606 [5+ 2.092 / 3.908]
Games to watch based on close ratings
Ct3 MEX-M v NZL-M – By this point, these two will floating around the average Mens Gonzalez rating. The outcome of this match will likely be weighty for both team ratings.
Ct4 CAN-M v ARG-M – It’s worth noting Argentina’s performance against a medalist. After three double strength Worlds matches, we should have a solid idea where they stand.
- USA-M (46.139) v NZL-M (39.953) for 0.763 / 3.237 [5+ 1.144 / 4.000]
- CAN-M (43.367) v HKG-M (36.415) for 0.610 / 3.390 [5+ 0.914 / 4.000]
- AUS-M (46.067) v MEX-M (44.739) for 1.734 / 2.266 [5+ 2.602 / 3.398]
Game to Watch:
Ct3 AUS-M v MEX-M – If Mexico picks up a two wins on Hong Kong and New Zealand, they would be sitting in a good position to gain points against Australia.
- AUS-W (42.926) v CAN-W (40.808) for 1.577 / 2.423 [5+ 2.365 / 3.635]
- MYS-M (49.716) v ARG-M (38.680) for 0.020 / 4.000 [5+ 0.020 / 4.000]
- USA-W (47.661) v HKG-W (43.623) for 1.192 / 2.808 [5+ 1.789 / 4.000]
- MEX-W (37.378) v ITA-W (35.775) for 1.679 / 2.321 [5+ 2.519 / 3.481]
Games to watch:
Ct1 AUS-W v CAN-W – By this far into the day, AUS will be in its fourth match and CAN will have only played one match. Canada’s potential take could be larger or smaller depending on earlier performance, but this is one of the closer rated matches of the timeslot.
Ct4 MEX-W v ITA-W – When two lower but similar rated teams face each other, it is still statistically important and worth looking into. Ratings indicate this may be a competitive match and the possibly the most even for either of these teams’ schedule.