Nationals 2019 Saturday Results

ALLENDALE – GV Fieldhouse: In the first day of Nationals 2019,

SVSU def CSU 3-1
CMU def Miami 3-2 OT
Akron def DePaul 5-0
BGSU def Ohio 3-1
UWP def Kent 3-0

UMD def OSU 5-1
NSU def UC 4-0
GVSU def MSU 5-1
Towson def UK 3-0
PSU def UNG 2-1

UWP def GSU 5-0
VCU def Kent 3-2 OT
CMU def OSU 2-1
UK def CSU 2-1 OT
Miami def UC 1-0 (F)

UMD def DePaul 8-0
BGSU def UNG 5-0
Towson def SVSU 3-0
MSU def Akron 3-1
GSVU def Ohio 3-2 OT

VCU def PSU 3-2 OT
OSU def NSU 3-1
Miami def GSU 6-0
SVSU def Kent 3-1
MSU def UWP 2-1 OT

UK def DePaul 4-0
UC def GSU 3-2 OT
Towson def BGSU 2-1
Akrong def UNG 3-1
CSU def NSU 5-0

VCU def CMU 3-2 OT
UMD def Ohio 2-1 OT
GVSU def PSU 2-0

Sunday Nationals Bracket Seeding

SeedTeamRating
1GVSU58.574
2Towson54.276
3MSU50.290
4CMU48.588
5Miami47.647
6VCU47.544
7BGSU46.839
8SVSU46.379
9Akron44.597
10PSU43.894
11UMD43.695
12UWP42.692
13UK41.886
14Ohio41.353
15Kent39.723
16OSU38.843
17UNG38.010
18CSU36.690
19DePaul34.459
20UC34.435
21GSU32.775
22NSU31.333

In the 2019 Season, we have 44 technical upsets in 249 ranked matches (82.33% success rate) across 32 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017, 2018, and this year’s 2019 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.50% based on 350 technical upsets in 1795 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

There were just four technical upsets on Saturday of Nationals, of the 33 games played.

NSU def UC 4-0

31.165 def 36.474 exchanging 3.062
Ranking #39 of 350, in the 88th percentile. #5 of 68 at a Nationals.

UWP def Kent 3-0

39.765 def 44.488 exchanging 2.945
Ranking #61 of 350, in the 82d percentile. #8 of 68 at a Nationals.

VCU def CMU 3-2 OT

46.163 def 49.969 exchanging 1.381
Ranking #94 of 350, in the 73d percentile. #13 of 68 at a Nationals.
#19 of 61 OT upsets, of 154 overtimes.
#2 of 12 OT upsets, of 41 Overtimes at a Nationals.

UC def GSU 3-2 OT

33.392 def 33.818 exchanging 1.043
Ranking #305 of 350, in the 12th percentile. #61 of 68 at a Nationals.
#56 of 61 OT upsets, of 154 overtimes.
#12 of 12 OT upsets, of 41 Overtimes at a Nationals.

Net Rating Changes

Rating ChangesPrePostChange
UMD39.99943.6953.696
VCU44.48947.5443.055
UWP39.76542.6922.926
Towson52.78654.2761.489
MSU48.85350.2901.437
UK40.53441.8861.352
BGSU45.50346.8391.337
CSU35.67636.6901.013
PSU43.30043.8940.594
SVSU45.85946.3790.520
Akron44.09544.5970.501
NSU31.16531.3330.168
GVSU58.51458.5740.060
CMU48.99248.588-0.403
OSU39.39738.843-0.554
Miami48.56447.647-0.917
GSU34.12032.775-1.345
UC36.47434.435-2.039
DePaul36.69634.459-2.237
Ohio44.03741.353-2.684
UNG41.21438.010-3.205
Kent44.48839.723-4.765

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 201120122013201420152016201720182019
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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