Standings as of 2019-10-08

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2020 Season, we have 11 technical upsets in 33 ranked matches (66.67% success rate) across 5 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the each Nationals bracket since 2017.

With only two matches this weekend, I recommend Hunter’s NCDA Scorigami post from last season for some fun supplemental reading.

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.31% based on 364 technical upsets in 1849 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

There were no upsets over the two ranked matches this weekend. However, we detailed the numbers behind the above average amount of technical upsets in last week’s Standings.

16 technical upsets can be considered statistically significant, technical upsets that fall in the second percentile of 354 technical upsets. 5 of these 16 have fallen in the first matches of the Season falling in September weekends.

Seasons 2016, 2017, and 2018 each had one significant upset. Last season (2019) did not have a significant upset. The other two remaining significant upsets occured in this season. At this point of the 2020 Season, there is a much lower success rate than similar points in the past six seasons, roughly 14% lower.

This could be representative that this season is trending to include more upsets, or it could be too early to accurately determine. 21 teams have played matches so far, only 2 or 3 matches into a typical 18 match season. Teams are required to play at least three games to qualify for Nationals, but in the 2019 Season, 30 teams averaged 18.33 matches each.


Net Rating Changes

Rating ChangesPrePostChange
UNG40.34641.1090.763
GSU34.79534.032-0.763

UNG def GSU: 40.346 def 34.795+1 exchanging 0.545
UNG def GSU OT: 40.891 def 34.250+1 with a halved OT exchange of 0.218


Ratings, sorted.

Mov.RankRatingTeam
153.931Towson
253.600GVSU
349.138CMU
447.454JMU
547.185MSU
645.655VCU
745.629SVSU
845.287Miami
944.628Ohio
1043.550UMD
1142.244BGSU
1242.091PSU
1341.502UWP
1441.205OSU
↑ from 181541.109UNG
↓ from 151640.916UK
↓ from 161740.424ZAG
↓ from 171840.401OS
1940.239Akron
2040.007WMU
2139.272CSU
2239.111SIUE
2338.126UNL
2437.863UVA
2537.465Kent
2636.545WVU
2736.228MC
2836.197UC
2935.607DePaul
↑ from 313034.539BSU
↓ from 303134.032GSU
3233.990GVSU-B
3333.713NSU
3432.793MSU-B
3532.000CMU-B

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec DocProbabilty Calculator

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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