Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2020 Season, we have 11 technical upsets in 33 ranked matches (66.67% success rate) across 5 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the each Nationals bracket since 2017.
With only two matches this weekend, I recommend Hunter’s NCDA Scorigami post from last season for some fun supplemental reading.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.31% based on 364 technical upsets in 1849 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
There were no upsets over the two ranked matches this weekend. However, we detailed the numbers behind the above average amount of technical upsets in last week’s Standings.
16 technical upsets can be considered statistically significant, technical upsets that fall in the second percentile of 354 technical upsets. 5 of these 16 have fallen in the first matches of the Season falling in September weekends.
Seasons 2016, 2017, and 2018 each had one significant upset. Last season (2019) did not have a significant upset. The other two remaining significant upsets occured in this season. At this point of the 2020 Season, there is a much lower success rate than similar points in the past six seasons, roughly 14% lower.
This could be representative that this season is trending to include more upsets, or it could be too early to accurately determine. 21 teams have played matches so far, only 2 or 3 matches into a typical 18 match season. Teams are required to play at least three games to qualify for Nationals, but in the 2019 Season, 30 teams averaged 18.33 matches each.
Net Rating Changes
UNG def GSU: 40.346 def 34.795+1 exchanging 0.545
UNG def GSU OT: 40.891 def 34.250+1 with a halved OT exchange of 0.218
|↑ from 18||15||41.109||UNG|
|↓ from 15||16||40.916||UK|
|↓ from 16||17||40.424||ZAG|
|↓ from 17||18||40.401||OS|
|↑ from 31||30||34.539||BSU|
|↓ from 30||31||34.032||GSU|
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probabilty Calculator