Michigan Region First Impressions

The college dodgeball season is now well underway, and each of the Michigan Region teams has stepped on the court at least once.  I have only had the pleasure to attend two games so far this year, but thanks to Facebook Live I have seen my fair share of Michigan Region teams through the first few weeks of the season.  Here are my very brief first impressions on each of the four Michigan schools (listed in the order of their current position in the NCDA Standings):

Continue reading “Michigan Region First Impressions”

First Impressions of the East

As just about everyone knows at this point, Towson hosted the first East Coast region tournament this weekend. While not every staple team from the EC was able to make it, three of mainstays (Towson, UMD & VCU) along with a young squad in Stevenson were able to get together for a day of action. Now that I’m on the outside looking in, I was able to watch and learn a lot more than I could in the past, as I was probably trying to keep myself awake in between matches or find a quick bite to eat. I caught most of the matches, and while I didn’t see everything, I saw enough to get a good impression on each of the four teams. Here are my impressions of the four squads involved in Sunday’s action: Continue reading “First Impressions of the East”

Previewing the Virginia Commonwealth Cup

Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) will be hosting their first tournament in program history this Saturday, October 1st.  This is the second East Coast region tournament, following the Towson Throwdown hosted by Towson University on September 25th.  Teams that will be attending include Towson, Maryland, and of course VCU.

What to Expect

More or less, we should expect results similar to the Towson Throwdown. The only team not playing in this tournament that was present last weekend is Stevenson, and given only a one week difference, it is hard to imagine much changing.  That being said, VCU will have a unique opportunity to play on their home court, giving them a slight advantage over the two traveling teams.  Continue reading “Previewing the Virginia Commonwealth Cup”

Pitt slated to become 40th Member Team

pitt-logoThis Saturday, the University of Pittsburgh Dodgeball Club hosts their first tournament and will become the 40th collegiate dodgeball organization to play in the NCDA. Pitt’s Induction Match is the first match of the day and their opponent is the honorable Akron, who joined as the 35th club who joined November 2014. Rounding out the competitors are Ohio and Kent, which will make for a great set of matches for any new team.

I am looking forward to the Pitt/Ohio match because new team matchups are always a highlight for me. I think this will be much more competitive than the current Gonzalez rating suggests, and I will actively compare this upcoming game to future meetings between the two teams.

I’m also looking at Kent/Akron as a good match. These two teams are basically coming from the same area, traveling a similar distance, and playing on a neutral but unfamiliar court. That sets up a great story in this author’s humble opinion.

Continue reading “Pitt slated to become 40th Member Team”

Cornhusker Recap

cornhusker-clash-2016-09-24-allIt was a great day for a tournament for Nebraska, DePaul, and Platteville. The games were competitive and everyone had a great time. The day first started out with Platteville and a few of DePaul’s first years playing against Nebraska’s first years. It was a good experience for all as it got everyone warmed up and ready to go. The order of the games went: Platteville vs. DePaul, Platteville vs. Nebraska, and DePaul vs. Nebraska.

Here is the breakdown of how these games went.  Continue reading “Cornhusker Recap”

Recap: Towson Throwdown

Towson University hosted the first East Coast tournament of the season at Burdick Hall which featured Towson, Maryland, Stevenson, and VCU.  For the very first tournament for every team, there were a lot of positives to take away, but also a lot of things to improve on for each team.  I will be analyzing each team and highlighting some of the key takeaways from the tournament.  Continue reading “Recap: Towson Throwdown”

Standings as of 2016-09-27

For these standings we use the revamped Gonzalez system, but I also included the time honored Champ system for ease of reference. There’s currently a discussion and vote going in the Executive Board for alterations to our NCDA Ranking Algorithm, which has been used for seeding the Nationals bracket for 2016 and 2015 (plus a proto system used for 2014). The accuracy for the Nationals bracket for the two years was 93.75%. The predictive accuracy for the new Gonzalez system is currently 80.16% (196 technical upsets / 988 ranked matches).  Continue reading “Standings as of 2016-09-27”

Towson Throwdown

The East Coast region will finally see its first set of games this weekend on Sunday at Towson University.  All of the teams participating are from Maryland and Virginia, which includes Towson, Maryland, Virginia Commonwealth, and Stevenson.  This tournament should prove to be tightly contested, and great opener for the East Coast.

Rank Team Gonzalez Rating
7 Towson 43.841+3
12 VCU 39.833
13 UMD 39.285
20 Stevenson 37.626

Continue reading “Towson Throwdown”

Cornhusker Clash

Cornhusker Clash (841 N 14th St, Lincoln, NE 68508)

This week kicks off the first tournament of the year for teams of Nebraska, DePaul, and Platteville. The Cornhusker Clash should be a blast and should provide some quality games for the teams participating. The last time that Nebraska held a tournament was two years ago and Platteville and DePaul attended. These teams all have experience which makes this a much different tournament than two years ago.

Let’s take a look at the teams at the Cornhusker Clash.  Continue reading “Cornhusker Clash”

Gonzalez Preview for the Death Valley Shootout

To kick off this weeks massive amount of games played (23+ matches in 4 geographically distinct locales), here are the exchanges for Death Valley! SVSU gets a plus 3 to their rating here for hosting. GVSU/CMU will be close; we don’t get to see this #1 and #2 matchup on a neutral court very often. The closest match of the day may go to CMU/SVSU with a rating gap of only 2.101 going into the day. And I’m personally looking forward to the JV match at the end of the day. All the matches this Saturday will count big for their team ratings.

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
11:00 GVSU CMU 53.984 50.548 0.656 1.344
12:30 CMU SVSU 49.891 48.431 0.854 1.146
2:00 GVSU SVSU 54.641 47.577 0.294 1.706
3:30 JV

The Gonzalez Ratings used in this preview are slightly different from previous years. We’ve adjusted the ratings from the start so that a team retains 75% of their rating from season to season. The remaining 25% is reverted to the mean for a particular season. Overall in this 75% carry over system, there’s been 189 technical upsets in 964 total ranked college dodgeball matches, a successful prediction rate of 80.39%. This is compared to the 81.74% success of a total rollover system we’ve used in the past.

While this system is less accurate in terms of the current data, the 75% figure is based on data reported by the Member Teams themselves. Averaging together, team player retention between seasons about 75% of their roster. This added variable helps give the system more “applied mathematical” accuracy that could be more accurate over time. Currently it’s a very small 1.35% variance, only 13 in 964 games.