Standings as of 2016-11-14

We had twenty matches over two events this weekend. Dodgeball has returned to IM West for the annual Spartan Invite, and the same can be said for a reactivated Miami. BGSU set a new record for most games played in a weekend outside of Nationals (6 matches) by participating at both events this past weekend. 

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 56.238 GVSU
2 49.739 MSU
3 48.738 CMU
↑ from 6 4 47.269 UK
↓ from 4 5 46.681 JMU
↑ from 8 6 46.091 SVSU
↑ from 9 7 45.027 Towson
↓ from 7 8 44.618 OSU
↓ from 5 9 44.447 Kent
10 42.340 UNG
11 41.977 VCU
12 41.123 WKU
13 41.088 PSU
14 40.474 UNT
15 40.417 UWP
16 38.583 BGSU
17 37.926 NIU
↑ from 22 18 37.857 DePaul
↓ from 18 19 37.660 GSU
↓ from 19 20 37.376 UVA
↓ from 20 21 37.310 UMD
↓ from 21 22 37.197 Akron
23 36.563 BW
↑ from 25 24 36.433 UNL
↑ from 26 25 36.067 Pitt
↑ from 27 26 35.118 SU
↑ from 28 27 34.487 Ohio
↓ from 24 28 33.700 Miami

There were four technical upsets of the day:
Ohio def Miami (1.527)
DePaul def BGSU (1.313)
SVSU def Kent (1.037)
BGSU def Miami (1.035)

The biggest upset of the day was Ohio def Miami 5-0. This marks Ohio’s second win of the season with an exchange of 1.527, which falls as the 27th biggest upset of 217 total technical upsets (about 87th percentile). The NCDA’s total ranked matches now number 1074 at a 79.80% successful prediction rate.

DePauly. Having played 4 matches at MSU, three Michigan opponents were statistically insignificant. Even a Kent/DePaul matchup (0.045) would have been less statistically significant than the end SV/DePaul match (0.221). But second highest upset of the weekend is claimed by DePaul’s win on BGSU. This technical upset ranks just 82nd of the 217 technical upsets or about the 63rd percentile. Since this exchange falls within one deviation of the mean (68%), this isn’t the most significantly important upset. But it was enough for DePaul to climbs to one of the highest ratings they’ve had of any November. Their average Gonzalez Rating hovers around 36.168 across DePaul’s total history.

BGSU and the inbetween. While BGSU’s Gonzalez rating netted -0.587 over their six games this weekend, their standing hasn’t moved since last week. They’ve floated into a buffer zone between NIU/DePaul and UWP/UNT, being one even-strength match from two placings in either direction. I might have stated before that BGSU was leading the pack of teams that are right below-median line, those 36/37 rated teams in the lower half of the Standings that range #17-#24. BGSU is ahead of that below-median pack as it stands now, but it is also not readily apparent if BGSU will float into the #10-15 median rated teams. Their next game should determine this.

Return of Miami. We now have 8 matches since Miami’s return, so we have a good estimate of their Gonzalez rating. Unfortunately it is last of the rated teams, but just .787 behind their upset rival, Ohio University. Any win for Miami is going to be an upset win from here on out, so they have an opportunity to climb back. It’s how the system works. If they beat Ohio on a neutral court, they are looking at an 1.079 upset win to climb one placing. Based on the historical data for technical upsets and the use of standard deviations, Miami is within striking distance of any team between Ohio (#27) and BGSU (#16).

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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