The state existing before the war
| Rank | Rating | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56.593 | GVSU |
| 7 | 45.474 | MSU |
| 8 | 43.786 | Kent |
| 10 | 42.489 | VCU |
| 11 | 42.484 | PSU |
| 13 | 41.547 | BGSU |
| 16 | 38.704 | Ohio |
| 17 | 38.078 | DePaul |
| 19 | 37.893 | CSU |
| 22 | 37.459 | BW |
| 26 | 36.737 | Akron |
I’ve marked this as opinion, as I include stuff we don’t track statistically.
A technical upset is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The first day of the War includes so many closely rated opponents that it is incredibly unlikely we will see every match predicted correctly. In our Gonzalez system’s current, straight success rate, the higher seeded team will win four of five games. However, this is less likely to apply as the rating gap between teams increases. Any of GVSU’s scheduled games are unlikely to result in a technical upset. CSU vs Akron is much fuzzier; each team has near identical ratings, being only 0.157 difference.
That said, these are the kinds of matches that are a test to the system. The wins and losses and overtimes (8.19% chance of occurrence) at the end of the day will better determine each team’s rating going into Nationals. We’ve never had this many great, even match games for Nationals before. I’m excited to see the results. Continue reading “Status Quo Ante Bellum”











