It’s Tuesday, so let’s interpret the raw data from this weekend’s matches at the BGSU Invitational.
There were 7 ranked matches and 3 JV contests, which brings us to 75 ranked matches in the 2018 Season. That’s impressive and we keep breaking the record for most games played up to this point in the season (75 to last year’s 68 ranked matches up to the 4th Sunday of October.)
We also have 10 JV contests! The record for most JV games played in a Season is 11 contests in the 2015 Season, and we’re going to break that record before the winter break. A number of staff are impressed to see JV catching on this year, but keep in mind: it’s up to the leaders of each team to allow JV / B team / Second teams to see action. We’ll keep recording them as long as you keep scheduling time to bring them to events.
Technical Upset Spotlight
Not too much statistical weight, but three technical upsets in seven matches. Overall, we have 1325 ranked matches on record with 253 technical upsets in the Gonzalez System.
Ohio def OSU 4-2
With a rating gap of just 1.337 between these two ratings, it is well worth mentioning the rise of Ohio since their induction matches a few years ago. It would have been much rarer to see this close a matchup in previous seasons, but the system has adapted Ohio is on an upward trend while OSU’s rating will continue to adjust as they play more games this season. This upset ranks 168 of 253 in the 33 percentile, the kind of healthy technical upset that the system relies on to maintain it’s predictability for future results.
BGSU def Towson 4-1
This is one of the more shallow rating gaps, ranking 227 of 253 in the 10th percentile. This upset would not have been an upset if not for Towson’s defeat of UK 5-2 in their previous match. On paper, it’s a minor statistical upset but we might expect this to be a boost to the minds of both BGSU and Towson. Even with an 8-3 record, Towson’s rating has remained a close to their pre-season rating. A close rating loss like this did not help. Meanwhile, BGSU is looking to continue their rise and 1.036 is a nice rating boost on that journey.
Towson def UK 5-2
This was the shallowest rating gap of the day, which ranked 234 of 253 technical upsets in the 7th percentile. UK played a lot of points for their journey, but only netted 0.073 in a 2-1 weekend, and that’s because this upset canceled out their gains over lower rated Ohio and OSU.
BGSU has the strongest take in their 3-0 weekend, while Ohio State drops the most. The middle three post minor rating gains, the usual for giving up a game or two.
Ohio’s 5-4 record includes 2 minor technical upsets, and they are up 3.525 on their rating since the start of the Season. That’s pretty solid improvements considering a 5-4 record. Through shorthand, that signifies that Ohio’s losses were predicable against higher ratings, but their wins were against similarly rated opponents. I’ll look forward to looking into that during the winter break.
|↑ from 8||5||47.024||BGSU|
|↓ from 5||6||46.747||SVSU|
|↓ from 6||8||46.269||UK|
|↑ from 12||11||41.525||PSU|
|↑ from 14||12||40.686||Ohio|
|↑ from 15||14||40.502||UNT|
|↑ from 16||15||40.139||WKU|
|↓ from 11||16||39.819||OSU|
Movement as of 2017-10-17
BGSU (47.024) is now a Top 5 team, just .227 ahead of SV’s rating (46.747) and .658 behind Kent (47.682). That’s pretty much an even game between those two ratings. At the current state, for BGSU to jump into fourth, BG would need a close match to give them a solid .658 exchange. That means beating a team within 3.418 of their rating, (currently UWP, MSU, UK, Towson, SV) At the other end, BG could lose their spot if they exchange anything more than .227 on a match. This is much more precarious, since a loss to any team except CMU will drop their place in this theoretical scenario.
Ratings #4-8 are precariously close, so expect any games to mix this section up.
Though Ohio State (39.819) is at a low point, but it’s not the lowest they’ve been. After a 3-2 bracket loss to WKU in Nationals 2014, OSU posted a 38.208 all time low rating to close out that season. They still need a couple more games to play this season so we can be a bit more confident in their position; it’s always better not to take results of one event if we could use two events.