We had just one event this weekend, the third annual Pink Out hosted by Akron at the Goodyear Hall. This one event did have 17 ranked matches, three JV contests, and ten teams competing.
The Gonzalez System now includes 250 technical upsets in 1317 ranked matches, and we’re up to 67 matches this season which continues to break records. Seven JV contests as well.
Technical Upset Spotlight
As always, here’s a little detail on the technical upsets of this weekend. We saw 3 in our 17 ranked matches, narrowly below average. We did however have two that were outside a standard deviation and therefore worth paying attention to.
Miami def DePaul 3-2 OT
Worth 0.829. Ranks 15th greatest upset in terms of rating gaps, the 94th percentile. 5th most influential Overtime upset out of 107 overtimes on record. We saw three overtimes in Akron, but we are still slightly under average this season. We are at 4 OT in 67 ranked matches (5.97%) and the historical average is 8.12%. Just 39% of all overtimes have been technical upsets (42 in 107), and we had two at Akron.
CSU def DePaul 3-2
The most influential upset of the day in terms of rating points exchanged, this technical upset was worth 1.510. It is the second biggest upset so far this season (first being BGSU def MSU in the first matches). Ranks #38 of 250 technical upsets, in the 84th percentile.
PSU def VCU 3-2 OT
This was a minor technical upset, since VCU had a slight favor going into the match with a rating gap of 1.411. In terms of overtime upsets, it ranks 29th of 42 OT upsets, out of 107 total overtimes. Ranks #163 of 250 technical upsets, 34th percentile. Telling for both teams and their position, but can be considered a rating adjustment match.
Net Rating Changes
CLE. Cleveland State was the biggest winner over the weekend gaining 2.074 on their rating while also posting a 3-1 record, including an upset win. That would be solid gains for any team, but it is important for a young rating like CSU. They are showing the League where they might fit in an incredibly crowded section of the Rankings. I noticed that there was more than one person who was surprised CSU had won games before Pink Out, but Cleveland State is now 7-11 overall. Having joined the NCDA at the Ohio Dodgeball Cup in February 2017, CSU has played 18 matches just months into joining the NCDA. That’s something to be proud of, and posting wins in both seasons is even better.
The State of Ohio makes gains. Not far behind are BGSU (3-0) and the home team, Akron (3-1). Bowling Green fared well by gaining a solid rating boost. Two of their winning exchanges (.805 and .706) were above the mean rating exchange (.601). BGSU’s rating exchange with BW was not as high as most exchanges (.321) but is still telling in itself. BGSU’s historical average in a winning rating exchange is .888, and to be able to lock in a win against lower rating is indicative of how BGSU has seriously improved over the years. There’s a lot more teams rated below BGSU than before and being in the top 8 ratings makes them a team to watch.
The Home Team. Akron had three secure wins this Saturday, and only lost to stronger rated PSU. In these three wins, Akron was predicted to win each match with the help of just one point of Home Court Advantage and nature of the reactionary system. The results earlier in an event affect the predictions of the later matches, and this is especially true in large events like Pink Out. Had DePaul won instead of being upset by CSU, it’s likely that DePaul would have the slight favor at the end of the day in their match against Akron. The same can be said if DePaul won in OT. As it stands, Akron made smart gains in their home event. Maybe their experience against top rated teams at Early Access and Summit Street gave them the edge this weekend.
Kent. The strongest rated team present went 3-0, but this is fairly familiar territory for Kent. The quality of their opponents only netted them a .566 over the weekend, which is just a consequence of a high rated team playing with average ratings. In comparison, BGSU was able to make more strides in their 3-0 record because the rating gaps on their opponents were simply smaller. However, the system still rewards a highly active team like Kent, and the sheer amount of wins still rack up. Winning a lot of games is a strong contributor as to why Kent is rated so highly today.
PSU is traveling! I want to recognize Penn State’s recent accomplishments and it is good to see them playing a couple of events. I had always wondered where they would fall as compared to more active teams. PSU has 6 games this season which makes me confident their rating (41.525) is accurate, which is hovering just over the League mean rating of 41.064. I’d also like to their JV squad has played 3 matches already with two wins on Saturday. Dodgeball is booming in Pennsylvania.
Miami netted a small bite to their rating despite an statistically major upset over DePaul in OT. Miami isn’t the lowest rated they have ever been. At the moment, any win is going to be an upset when you are the lowest rating. But I think the key to Miami’s future success is their approach to playing as much dodgeball as possible, utilizing their central locale. I hope they match the same 19 matches they played last season upon their reintroduction. Success is coming, and I bet it will be on their home court.
“Common Wealth.” Virginia Commonwealth seems to be struggling, but some of these box scores tell a greater story; VCU scored points in all of their losses this weekend. VCU had a lot to lose playing the toughest schedule (in rating terms), but they are still within 1 point of where they started this season, even if it puts them within a precarious section of similar ratings. VCU has plenty more dodgeball to play. The more they play, the more this weekend’s results are going to fade.
BW. After a rocky season last year, BW needs to come play some dodgeball. Anywhere, just being active will help the team, and it especially helps when you are in a populated region like Ohio. This State has become a microcosm of college dodgeball, and we saw Baldwin Wallace score points in all of their matches this Saturday. The competition is much closer than a simple rating list would indicate. BW is set to make a couple splashes this year if they can take advantage of their location.
DePaul. The Gonzalez System indicated that DePaul would go 4-0 if there were no upsets. I had personal doubts the schedule would hold up as a no upset weekend, the main reason being this event include a lot of teams with very similar ratings. But there is a hypothesis between Felix and I that extreme road trips could have a measurable effect on the strength of the team, but that’s still in evaluation phase. It would be a difficult task to incorporate it into the Gonzalez system, but interesting work has been done in FiveThirtyEight’s Sports prediction ELO systems.
In any case, a no upset weekend is rare, since the average success rate is still hovering around 4 in 5 for our Gonzalez System. It is still very, very early in the season and DePaul hasn’t played a lot of games. An 0-4 record for Saturday, with two upsets, indicates DePaul’s rating was too high and the system has adjusted. They lose 4.224 which is quite a lot over four games, and even with one of those games as an OT loss (overtime exchanges are halved of what they would normally be if decided in regulation). Based off my memory, that’s one of the largest rating dives because of one event, in the last two years of doing these articles. If anyone is going to test the limits, it will be DePaul. We had to incorporate a specific rule prohibiting removing clothing because of DePaul shenanigans.
|↑ from 10||8||45.003||BGSU|
|↓ from 8||9||44.523||MSU|
|↓ from 9||10||43.626||UWP|
|↑ from 13||12||41.525||PSU|
|↓ from 12||13||40.649||VCU|
|↑ from 19||14||40.535||Ohio|
|↑ from 20||19||38.586||UWW|
|↑ from 21||20||38.557||NIU|
|↑ from 29||21||37.909||CSU|
|↑ from 28||24||37.796||Akron|
|↓ from 24||25||37.722||Pitt|
|↓ from 14||26||36.710||DePaul|
|↓ from 25||27||36.702||UNL|
|↓ from 27||28||36.169||NSU|
|↑ from 30||29||35.442||GSU|
|↑ from 31||30||34.659||SU|
|↓ from 26||31||34.449||BW|
Movement as of 2017-10-11.
Notice one thing: the League mean rating is 41.064 which would place it between the #12 and #13 rating.
- From the mean to the minimum rating, there is just 8.039 points but 20 teams.
- From the mean to the maximum rating, there is 13.771 rating points but just 12 teams.
This is why I tend to mention the lower section of the rankings is competitive or crowded. Lot easier to jump positions when there isn’t a lot between ratings.