Akron hosts the first Pink Out


Alrighty, for Akron’s Pink Out tournament we have a lot of teams with similar ratings! Aside from Kent, most teams playing at Akron this Saturday have a average rating of 39.287 and a median rating of 38.585. That’s quite balanced… even with a spread of just 5.991 rating points from the highest rated team to the lowest rated team. In comparison, the League spread is 25.742

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
9:15 Kent Akron 42.983 39.344* 0.636 1.364
9:15 BW Ohio 37.828 36.993 0.916 1.084
10:30 BW Akron 38.744 38.708 0.996 1.004
10:30 Kent Ohio 43.619 36.076 0.246 1.754
11:45 Akron Ohio 37.712 35.830 0.812 1.188
11:45 Kent BW 43.865 39.741 0.588 1.412
2:00 Kent Akron 44.453 38.524 0.407 1.593
2:00 BW Ohio 39.153 35.019 0.587 1.413

* Akron’s rating includes a home court advantage of +3.

Another thing to note is that these are the predicted results as they occur for each match. If Ohio upsets BW in the first round, gaining rating points instead of losing them, it’ll affect the rest of the matches. Because Akron, BW, and Ohio U are so similar in strength, any matches versus them will have larger exchanges.

Let me try to horribly apply a double edged sword metaphor: In tournaments that have closely ranked opponents, the Gonzalez system isn’t able to accurately predict matches “later in the day” because there is a higher probability of technical upsets among teams of similar ratings. However, the Gonzalez system is useful for the first round. It is a system that excels at comparing team strengths based on past performance. By the end of the event we’ll have a clearer picture of each team’s strength by comparing their ratings against each other, after all is said and done.

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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