Standings as of 2018-04-03

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2018 Season, we have 55 technical upsets in 233 ranked matches (76.39% success rate) across 37 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.38% based on 291 technical upsets in 1483 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

This weekend had one technical upsets over eight ranked matches.

Miami def UK 3-2

40.069+1 def 45.134, exchanging 1.406

Miami’s upset of UK was one of the larger rating gaps of the season so far. With a rating gap of -4.065 (including the home court advantage of Miami) this technical upset ranks 8th greatest of the season so far, out of 55 overall technical upsets, over the 233 total ranked matches. Miami has a couple of those, mostly in the first half of the season. Miami (12-7) has changed their stars since their performance last season, in the same way that UK’s performance (7-4) has dictated a net loss rating since the start of the season. UK’s performance over the season is an interesting story, but Miami is definitely more interesting given the higher climb.

Overall, this technical upset ranks #70 of 291 technical upsets, in the 75th percentile.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
Miami 39.367 42.308 2.941
VCU 42.518 43.289 0.771
UK 45.134 44.559 -0.575
UMD 37.803 37.032 -0.771
WKU 40.139 39.362 -0.777
BSU 37.394 35.805 -1.589

Miami with huge gains this weekend following a 3-0 record on the home court. It’s good to see WKU playing some matches, just in time for a Nationals trip. BSU has now played seven games and moved past their provisional period. Again, welcome to the League! Nice jerseys.

And UK continues to throw some minor mixed signals. Kentucky generally defeats who they are predicted to defeat, but three of their four losses this season were technical upsets:

  • Towson (45.996 vs 46.196, #268)
  • Ohio (40.276+1 vs 46.269, #42)
  • CMU (55.909 v 44.770)
  • Miami (40.069+1 vs 45.134, #70)

Eleven games played in a season is a respectable number, so we either see an accurate Gonzalez rating of UK, or we could end up seeing some technical upsets against wider competition at Nationals.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 56.493 CMU
2 55.014 GVSU
3 48.678 SVSU
4 48.641 Kent
5 48.353 Towson
6 48.209 JMU
7 47.729 BGSU
8 44.559 UK
9 44.315 UWP
10 44.306 MSU
↑ from 12 11 43.289 VCU
↓ from 11 12 42.598 UNG
↑ from 20 13 42.308 Miami
↓ from 13 14 41.747 Ohio
↓ from 14 15 41.686 PSU
↓ from 15 16 40.502 † UNT
↓ from 16 17 40.324* SIUE
18 40.020*† ZAG
19 39.980*† OS
↓ from 17 20 39.362 WKU
21 38.662 GSU
22 38.586*† UWW
23 38.557*† NIU
24 38.453 OSU
25 38.127 DePaul
↑ from 27 26 37.722*† Pitt
↑ from 29 27 37.090 UNL
↓ from 26 28 37.032 UMD
↑ from 30 29 36.725 UVA
↑ from 31 30 36.636* Midland
↑ from 32 31 36.603* UCF
↑ from 33 32 36.336 Akron
↓ from 28 33 35.805 BSU
34 35.556 SU
35 35.044* WVU
36 34.996 MC
37 34.159 CSU
38 32.914 NSU
39 32.595 BW

Movement as of 2018-03-27
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentGonzalez OldPerroneChampLieblich
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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