Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2018 Season, we have 55 technical upsets in 233 ranked matches (76.39% success rate) across 37 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.38% based on 291 technical upsets in 1483 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
This weekend had one technical upsets over eight ranked matches.
Miami def UK 3-2
40.069+1 def 45.134, exchanging 1.406
Miami’s upset of UK was one of the larger rating gaps of the season so far. With a rating gap of -4.065 (including the home court advantage of Miami) this technical upset ranks 8th greatest of the season so far, out of 55 overall technical upsets, over the 233 total ranked matches. Miami has a couple of those, mostly in the first half of the season. Miami (12-7) has changed their stars since their performance last season, in the same way that UK’s performance (7-4) has dictated a net loss rating since the start of the season. UK’s performance over the season is an interesting story, but Miami is definitely more interesting given the higher climb.
Overall, this technical upset ranks #70 of 291 technical upsets, in the 75th percentile.
Net Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 39.367 | 42.308 | 2.941 |
| VCU | 42.518 | 43.289 | 0.771 |
| UK | 45.134 | 44.559 | -0.575 |
| UMD | 37.803 | 37.032 | -0.771 |
| WKU | 40.139 | 39.362 | -0.777 |
| BSU | 37.394 | 35.805 | -1.589 |
Miami with huge gains this weekend following a 3-0 record on the home court. It’s good to see WKU playing some matches, just in time for a Nationals trip. BSU has now played seven games and moved past their provisional period. Again, welcome to the League! Nice jerseys.
And UK continues to throw some minor mixed signals. Kentucky generally defeats who they are predicted to defeat, but three of their four losses this season were technical upsets:
- Towson (45.996 vs 46.196, #268)
- Ohio (40.276+1 vs 46.269, #42)
- CMU (55.909 v 44.770)
- Miami (40.069+1 vs 45.134, #70)
Eleven games played in a season is a respectable number, so we either see an accurate Gonzalez rating of UK, or we could end up seeing some technical upsets against wider competition at Nationals.
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 1 | 56.493 | CMU |
| — | 2 | 55.014 | GVSU |
| — | 3 | 48.678 | SVSU |
| — | 4 | 48.641 | Kent |
| — | 5 | 48.353 | Towson |
| — | 6 | 48.209 | JMU |
| — | 7 | 47.729 | BGSU |
| — | 8 | 44.559 | UK |
| — | 9 | 44.315 | UWP |
| — | 10 | 44.306 | MSU |
| ↑ from 12 | 11 | 43.289 | VCU |
| ↓ from 11 | 12 | 42.598 | UNG |
| ↑ from 20 | 13 | 42.308 | Miami |
| ↓ from 13 | 14 | 41.747 | Ohio |
| ↓ from 14 | 15 | 41.686 | PSU |
| ↓ from 15 | 16 | 40.502 † | UNT |
| ↓ from 16 | 17 | 40.324* | SIUE |
| — | 18 | 40.020*† | ZAG |
| — | 19 | 39.980*† | OS |
| ↓ from 17 | 20 | 39.362 | WKU |
| — | 21 | 38.662 | GSU |
| — | 22 | 38.586*† | UWW |
| — | 23 | 38.557*† | NIU |
| — | 24 | 38.453 | OSU |
| — | 25 | 38.127 | DePaul |
| ↑ from 27 | 26 | 37.722*† | Pitt |
| ↑ from 29 | 27 | 37.090 | UNL |
| ↓ from 26 | 28 | 37.032 | UMD |
| ↑ from 30 | 29 | 36.725 | UVA |
| ↑ from 31 | 30 | 36.636* | Midland |
| ↑ from 32 | 31 | 36.603* | UCF |
| ↑ from 33 | 32 | 36.336 | Akron |
| ↓ from 28 | 33 | 35.805 | BSU |
| — | 34 | 35.556 | SU |
| — | 35 | 35.044* | WVU |
| — | 36 | 34.996 | MC |
| — | 37 | 34.159 | CSU |
| — | 38 | 32.914 | NSU |
| — | 39 | 32.595 | BW |
Movement as of 2018-03-27
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Systems: Gonzalez Current, Gonzalez Old, Perrone, Champ, LieblichSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
