Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2018 Season, we have 54 technical upsets in 225 ranked matches (76.00% success rate) across 35 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.34% based on 290 technical upsets in 1475 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
This weekend had two technical upsets over fourteen ranked matches.
MSU def UWP 5-2
43.053 def 45.578, exchanging 1.252
This was an interesting game that further blurs the lines of the rankings a bit. While UWP only fell one spot and MSU did not move at all, UWP only has a 0.009 point lead ahead of MSU. The upset itself was only in the 57th percentile as the 125th ranked upset, but it has set up MSU to make a legitimate jump into the top 8. – HF
CMU def GVSU 5-2
55.030 def 55.826+1, exchanging 1.180
CMU has defeated GVSU once again and thus moved back up on top the NCDA standings. The upset ranks in the 44th percentile, but would have been in the 20th percentile had this game been played anywhere besides GVSU or CMU. CMU now has a 1.479 rating gap on GVSU which is very important for Saturday play. This is because GVSU would now have to beat SVSU, Kent, Towson (the current 3, 4, and 5 seeds) to have a shot at jumping CMU for the #1 ranking, and that assumes CMU doesn’t as least pick up some points Saturday. TL;DR CMU almost completely controls their fate as the 1 seed going forward. – HF
Net Rating Changes
Plenty of action happening this weekend. Stay tuned for a review article presented by UWP’s Erik Zander.
|↑ from 2||1||56.493||CMU|
|↓ from 1||2||55.014||GVSU|
|↑ from 9||8||45.134||UK|
|↓ from 8||9||44.315||UWP|
|↑ from 34||30||36.725||UVA|
|↑ from 35||34||35.556||SU|
|↓ from 30||35||35.044*||WVU|
Movement as of 2018-03-20
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
VCU. VCU and UMD will be squaring off this weekend just in time for Easter. The two schools will compete in a double-header at VCU’s home location of Cary St. Gym. On VCU’s side, should they get both wins they will get enough points to jump ahead of UNG and settle in the 11th place spot. For UMD, it’s a little more drastic on both ends. Two losses would drop the Terps from 26th to 29th overall, but two wins would catapult them all the way up to 15th overall.
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Systems: Gonzalez Current,
Gonzalez Old, Perrone, Champ, LieblichSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc