Standings as of 2018-03-27

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2018 Season, we have 54 technical upsets in 225 ranked matches (76.00% success rate) across 35 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.34% based on 290 technical upsets in 1475 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

This weekend had two technical upsets over fourteen ranked matches.

MSU def UWP 5-2

43.053 def 45.578, exchanging 1.252

This was an interesting game that further blurs the lines of the rankings a bit.  While UWP only fell one spot and MSU did not move at all, UWP only has a 0.009 point lead ahead of MSU.  The upset itself was only in the 57th percentile as the 125th ranked upset, but it has set up MSU to make a legitimate jump into the top 8. – HF

CMU def GVSU 5-2

55.030 def 55.826+1, exchanging 1.180

CMU has defeated GVSU once again and thus moved back up on top the NCDA standings.  The upset ranks in the 44th percentile, but would have been in the 20th percentile had this game been played anywhere besides GVSU or CMU.  CMU now has a 1.479 rating gap on GVSU which is very important for Saturday play.  This is because GVSU would now have to beat SVSU, Kent, Towson (the current 3, 4, and 5 seeds) to have a shot at jumping CMU for the #1 ranking, and that assumes CMU doesn’t as least pick up some points Saturday.  TL;DR CMU almost completely controls their fate as the 1 seed going forward. – HF

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
CMU 55.030 56.493 1.463
PSU 40.797 41.686 0.889
MSU 43.520 44.306 0.786
UVA 36.263 36.725 0.462
JMU 47.765 48.209 0.444
OSU 38.427 38.453 0.025
SVSU 48.851 48.678 -0.173
GVSU 55.816 55.014 -0.802
UWP 45.588 44.315 -1.272
WVU 36.865 35.044 -1.820

Plenty of action happening this weekend.  Stay tuned for a review article presented by UWP’s Erik Zander.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
↑ from 2 1 56.493 CMU
↓ from 1 2 55.014 GVSU
3 48.678 SVSU
4 48.641 Kent
5 48.353 Towson
6 48.209 JMU
7 47.729 BGSU
↑ from 9 8 45.134 UK
↓ from 8 9 44.315 UWP
10 44.306 MSU
11 42.598 UNG
12 42.518 VCU
13 41.747 Ohio
14 41.686 PSU
15 40.502 † UNT
16 40.324* SIUE
17 40.139 † WKU
18 40.020*† ZAG
19 39.980*† OS
20 39.367 Miami
21 38.662 GSU
22 38.586*† UWW
23 38.557*† NIU
24 38.453 OSU
25 38.127 DePaul
26 37.803 UMD
27 37.722*† Pitt
28 37.394 BSU
29 37.090 UNL
↑ from 34 30 36.725 UVA
31 36.636* Midland
32 36.603* UCF
33 36.336 Akron
↑ from 35 34 35.556 SU
↓ from 30 35 35.044* WVU
36 34.996 MC
37 34.159 CSU
38 32.914 NSU
39 32.595 BW

Movement as of 2018-03-20
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

VCU. VCU and UMD will be squaring off this weekend just in time for Easter.  The two schools will compete in a double-header at VCU’s home location of Cary St. Gym.  On VCU’s side, should they get both wins they will get enough points to jump ahead of UNG and settle in the 11th place spot.  For UMD, it’s a little more drastic on both ends.  Two losses would drop the Terps from 26th to 29th overall, but two wins would catapult them all the way up to 15th overall.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentGonzalez OldPerroneChampLieblich
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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