Standings as of 2018-03-06

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

There was one event this weekend: the Gold Rush. Check out the recap by Hunter.

In the 2018 Season, we have 50 technical upsets in 203 ranked matches (75.31% success rate) across 31 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.32% based on 286 technical upsets in 1453 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

This weekend had two technical upsets over five ranked matches.

GSU def UCF 4-1

36.858 def 40.000, exchanging 1.314

There have been 15 induction matches that were technical upsets across our history, with this falling as the seventh highest exchange of an induction match. Over the rest of technical upsets, it ranks #99 of 286 in 65th percentile, so roughly in the zone of statistically uninteresting upsets. Yet it does give GSU a slight rating boost through a slightly fortunate circumstance of playing a new team who has only just begun to establish a foothold within the system.

GSU def UCF 3-2

37.623 def 38.018, exchanging 1.040

GSU’s second game against the U of Central Florida was the second technical upset of the weekend. However, this exchange was much more equal with a shallow rating gap of -0.395 points between the two teams, and even a closer 3-2 box score. Compared to the first match falling in the 65th percentile, this match falls #252 of 286 in 11th percentile. This could be identifiable of a competitive UCF among the other Southern teams, in that GSU and UCF may be similarly rated for the time being. UCF still has about two more matches before they reach six games played and are out of the provisional rating period.  There is plenty of direction for this new UCF to play into.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
GSU 36.858 38.662 1.804
UNG 41.005 42.598 1.594
UCF 40.000 36.603 -3.397

The “Southern Conference” is both new and undeveloped, and it is crucial that we pay attention to any new box scores that come from it’s participating teams. The Georgia Region has a great geographical opportunity to develop into leaders of the other Southern teams.

GSU has gotten a bit of a kick in their past few tournaments, no doubt utilizing the previous gameplay experience against UNG. They have played 13 total matches and eight over this season. It’s a small number but will be immensely helpful in developing their program over the next few years. It’s not about Nationals. It’s about developing a fixture on campus. Nationals is a reward for the active members of the club.

In similar ways as the Midway Conference, UNG is developing into a leader of a sparse area. And just like UWP, we’ll need to see these geographical leaders play other regions to get the most out of interpreting their performance. Thankfully, that is possible in the open, play-who-you-can structure of the NCDA. I’m looking forward to seeing UNG competing against East Coast teams and UWP playing potential Michigan or Ohio squads in the weeks leading up to Nationals.

We might talk about regions, but we’re fairly unified.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 55.816 GVSU
2 55.030 CMU
3 48.851 SVSU
4 48.641 Kent
5 48.353 Towson
6 47.765 JMU
7 47.178 BGSU
8 45.134 UK
9 44.902 UWP
10 43.520 MSU
↑ from 13 11 42.598 UNG
↓ from 11 12 42.518 VCU
↓ from 12 13 41.747 Ohio
14 40.797 PSU
15 40.502 † UNT
16 40.139 † WKU
17 40.020*† ZAG
18 39.980*† OS
19 39.367 Miami
↑ from 29 20 38.662 GSU
↓ from 20 21 38.586*† UWW
↓ from 21 22 38.557*† NIU
↓ from 22 23 38.427 OSU
↓ from 23 24 38.304 UNL
↓ from 24 25 38.269*† SIUE
↓ from 25 26 37.803 UMD
↓ from 26 27 37.722*† Pitt
↓ from 27 28 37.599 DePaul
↓ from 28 29 36.865* WVU
30 36.636* Midland
→ Enter 31 36.603* UCF
↓ from 31 32 36.336 Akron
↓ from 32 33 36.263 UVA
↓ from 33 34 35.556 SU
↓ from 34 35 34.996 MC
↓ from 35 36 34.159 CSU
↓ from 36 37 32.914 NSU
↓ from 37 38 32.595 BW

Movement as of 2018-02-27
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

UCF. The U of Central Florida enters the League where most new teams enter, and that isn’t anything too unusual. We have to wait a couple more games to see where UCF falls after their provisional period ends. The first games of a new team are, in reality, never that telling unless they post a winning record. A heavy super majority of new teams do not accomplish this. They just need a handful of games to figure out an identity and it is unfair to read too much into performance until the provision rating is nixed.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentGonzalez OldPerroneChampLieblich
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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