We have two big tournaments on Saturday, and two more on Sunday. Today we’ll preview the Buckeye Invite happening this Sunday in Columbus. We’ll use the same 75% carry over we used in the Shootout preview earlier this week.
| Time | High Seed | Low Seed | Rating | Rating | Predicted Exchange | Exchange if Upset |
| 10:30 | OSU | BGSU | 50.691 | 38.042 | 0.010 | 2.000 |
| 10:30 | MSU | UK | 47.998 | 43.416 | 0.542 | 1.458 |
| 12:00 | OSU | Kent | 47.691 | 44.064 | 0.637 | 1.363 |
| 12:00 | MSU | BGSU | 48.540 | 38.032 | 0.010 | 2.000 |
| 2:00 | MSU | OSU | 48.550 | 48.328 | 0.978 | 1.022 |
| 2:00 | Kent | UK | 43.427 | 42.874 | 0.945 | 1.055 |
| 3:30 | OSU | UK | 47.350 | 41.929 | 0.458 | 1.542 |
| 3:30 | Kent | BGSU | 44.371 | 38.022 | 0.365 | 1.635 |
Columbus kicks in its hospitality reputation early this season by hosting in a centralized location and drawing in teams from bordering states. These five competitors are classics in the NCDA and in many ways this is a classic round robin we’ve seen many times before. Looking at the predicted exchanges, we have a good mix of matches between equal competitors. We still have a handful that fall below the minimum defined exchange, 0.010 for any match between ratings that are about 10 point differential.
The closest match of the day may be MSU facing an OSU home team, in the third round. A loss for either team earlier in the day will cause this exchange to be slightly less important, but as the system predicts this will be one of the more statistically important games played in regular season collegiate dodgeball history. Just 18 matches in some 968 games have a bigger swing in ratings.
Not to leave Kent/UK out of the mix, there’s some 48 historical games that are statistically more relevant in the regular season. Kent gets the nod as slight favorite here, but UK is historically proficient at knocking over similar rated teams in technical upsets. This round will be valuable for all these four competitors. Good luck to BGSU on officiating.
BGSU has the most to gain in their matches of the day. We miss out on a close matchup against Kentucky, but a Kent opponent is not out of reach for a BGSU squad in their home state. Knocking off a traveling MSU team is a tad more predictable than knocking out OSU on their home court. That’ll make for a top five greatest statistical upset in history.
