King of the Mountain Exchanges

King of the Mountain Gonzalez Exchanges.

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
12:00 CMU Akron 60.432 38.661 0.010 2.000 21.772
12:00 SVSU UWP 48.596 43.194 0.460 1.540 5.402
12:00 GVSU Kent 58.381 40.584 0.010 2.000 17.798
1:15 CMU Kent 60.442 40.574 0.010 2.000 19.869
1:15 UWP Ohio 42.734 33.024 0.029 1.971 9.710
1:15 SVSU Akron 49.056 38.651 0.010 2.000 10.405
3:00 CMU UWP 60.452 42.763 0.010 2.000 17.689
3:00 Kent Ohio 40.564 32.995 0.243 1.757 7.569
3:00 GVSU Akron 58.391 38.641 0.010 2.000 19.751
4:15 CMU Ohio 60.462 32.752 0.010 2.000 27.711
4:15 GVSU SVSU 58.401 49.066 0.066 1.934 9.336
4:15 Kent Akron 40.807 38.631 0.782 1.218 2.176

With the two highest ratings in the Gonzalez system playing in this event, it comes to no surprise that we have a number of predicted exchanges at the minimum value. Pretty much anyone playing GVSU is the minimum value, and all matches scheduled for a CMU home team are the minimum exchange.

The system doesn’t predict many even matches against the schedule; the average rating gap is a hefty 14.099. Exchanges start counting greater than the minimum when team ratings are within 10 of each other. It’s a shame we won’t see CMU Home v GVSU Away, or UWP v Kent. Those exchanges would be in the .700 range. A small caveat about that number: when both team ratings are equal, the exchange is 1. Then say one team had home court advantage; the exchange would be .700 in favor of the home team.

The closest predicted is the last match of the day, Kent/Akron. That’s a rating gap is 2.176 and predicted exchange of .782 in favor of Kent.

Any upsets, and to a lesser extent overtimes, will award the underdog with major additions to their rating and I’m looking forward to the day. As always, let me know if you have any questions!

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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