After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.
There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.
Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play.
The rating change for the six teams that played this weekend is especially interesting and tells a story on its own.
| Team | Pre | Post | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Towson | 45.176 | 47.768 | +2.592 |
| VCU | 42.086 | 43.937 | +1.851 |
| JMU | 46.808 | 48.016 | +1.208 |
| UK | 48.250 | 47.366 | -0.883 |
| MSU | 50.051 | 48.171 | -1.881 |
| OSU | 44.747 | 41.859 | -2.888 |
Over three to four games, that’s a pretty good exchange value for JMU, VCU, and Towson: securing technical upsets helped.
Technical upsets at BEAST VI arranged by end exchange weight
Towson def MSU: 1.532, 24th of 208, 88 percentile
Towson def JMU: 1.406, 56th, 72%
VCU def OSU: 1.207, 109th, 46%
JMU def UK: 1.009, 201st, 1%
VCU def UK OT: 0.746, (1.492 normalized, 37th, 81%)
The Standings as of 2017-02-05
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 1 | 55.440 | GVSU |
| ↑ from 3 | 2 | 48.594 | CMU |
| ↓ from 2 | 3 | 48.171 | MSU |
| ↑ from 6 | 4 | 48.016 | JMU |
| ↑ from 7 | 5 | 47.768 | Towson |
| ↓ from 4 | 6 | 47.366 | UK |
| ↓ from 5 | 7 | 47.267 | SVSU |
| — | 8 | 44.893 | Kent |
| ↑ from 12 | 9 | 43.937 | VCU |
| — | 10 | 42.564 | WKU |
| — | 11 | 42.484 | PSU |
| ↓ from 9 | 12 | 41.859 | OSU |
| — | 13 | 40.679 | BGSU |
| — | 14 | 40.466 | UNG |
| — | 15 | 40.309 | UNT |
| — | 16 | 38.909 | UWP |
| — | 17 | 38.545 | DePaul |
| — | 18 | 37.754 | UWW |
| — | 19 | 37.715 | NIU |
| — | 20 | 37.437 | UMD |
| — | 21 | 37.284 | UVA |
| — | 22 | 36.971 | UNL |
| — | 23 | 36.601 | Pitt |
| — | 24 | 36.571 | BW |
| — | 25 | 36.291 | GSU |
| — | 26 | 35.366 | Akron |
| — | 27 | 34.768 | Ohio |
| — | 28 | 34.756 | SU |
| — | 29 | 34.438 | Miami |
Movement as of 2017-02-01.
This week, we see historical record ratings for Towson and VCU. Towson recorded a team high of 47.768 this weekend, and has a respectable 41.125 average historical rating.
The bigger story here is VCU. With a current 43.937 but an historic average of 36.195, VCU has climbed to a record high in their history and they are knocking on the top 7 tier. Don’t overlook this. With the ability to quickly play Towson and JMU, and being willing/able to travel, VCU has every opportunity to be a top seven team heading into Nationals if they knock out a 3 to 5 more quality wins. Towson and JMU should be wary, as should any of their potential opponents.
