Gonzalez standings as of 2017-02-05

After the handful of technical upsets at BEAST this weekend, we see a shake up of the top 7 tier.

There is a number of fluctuating tiers in the Standings, which correlates to similar ratings in the tier. It’s important to consider a team’s rating in addition to their rank. Currently, GVSU is still GVSU… they are still four to five games ahead of their nearest competitors. They are alone in the top tier.

Only 1.3 point rating gap separates #2 through #7. In this tier, #7 is one moderate upset away from a #2 placing. It’s all relative. The situation for #3 MSU is moderately perilous to the rest of this top seven, but comfortable compared to the rest of the League. A losing record at the upcoming Michigan Dodgeball Cup will put them in a worse situation for Nationals; let’s keep in mind that 4 of the top 7 teams will be at the MDC. A winning record will put them back into a solid #2 and I think their current rating is only going to be their lowest point of the season. MSU has the potential to finish higher, they just have to play. 

The rating change for the six teams that played this weekend is especially interesting and tells a story on its own.

Team Pre Post Change
Towson 45.176 47.768 +2.592
VCU 42.086 43.937 +1.851
JMU 46.808 48.016 +1.208
UK 48.250 47.366 -0.883
MSU 50.051 48.171 -1.881
OSU 44.747 41.859 -2.888

Over three to four games, that’s a pretty good exchange value for JMU, VCU, and Towson: securing technical upsets helped.

Technical upsets at BEAST VI arranged by end exchange weight

Towson def MSU: 1.532, 24th of 208, 88 percentile
Towson def JMU: 1.406, 56th, 72%
VCU def OSU: 1.207, 109th, 46%
JMU def UK: 1.009, 201st, 1%
VCU def UK OT: 0.746, (1.492 normalized, 37th, 81%)

The Standings as of 2017-02-05

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 55.440 GVSU
↑ from 3 2 48.594 CMU
↓ from 2 3 48.171 MSU
↑ from 6 4 48.016 JMU
↑ from 7 5 47.768 Towson
↓ from 4 6 47.366 UK
↓ from 5 7 47.267 SVSU
8 44.893 Kent
↑ from 12 9 43.937 VCU
10 42.564 WKU
11 42.484 PSU
↓ from 9 12 41.859 OSU
13 40.679 BGSU
14 40.466 UNG
15 40.309 UNT
16 38.909 UWP
17 38.545 DePaul
18 37.754 UWW
19 37.715 NIU
20 37.437 UMD
21 37.284 UVA
22 36.971 UNL
23 36.601 Pitt
24 36.571 BW
25 36.291 GSU
26 35.366 Akron
27 34.768 Ohio
28 34.756 SU
29 34.438 Miami

Movement as of 2017-02-01.

This week, we see historical record ratings for Towson and VCU. Towson recorded a team high of 47.768 this weekend, and has a respectable 41.125 average historical rating.

The bigger story here is VCU. With a current 43.937 but an historic average of 36.195, VCU has climbed to a record high in their history and they are knocking on the top 7 tier. Don’t overlook this. With the ability to quickly play Towson and JMU, and being willing/able to travel, VCU has every opportunity to be a top seven team heading into Nationals if they knock out a 3 to 5 more quality wins. Towson and JMU should be wary, as should any of their potential opponents.

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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