Since the Rugby World Cup is going on, i’d thought we’d highlight the Gonzalez exchanges for yesterday’s matches. The Gonzalez System uses the same rating exchange system that the International Rugby Board (IRB) uses to determine rankings for its teams. World Cup games are worth double just like our Nationals games are.
First, the initial ratings before the day’s first match:
- GVSU = 59.202, a historically strong team and top rank at #1.
- MSU = 51.009, still up there at #5 in Gonzalez Standings.
With home court advantage, GVSU gains 3 rating points to bring them to a hefty rating of 62.202 versus MSU’s initial rating of 51.009.
GVSU def MSU 2-1 OT [62.202 def 51.009 in OT]
Formula: (0.5 * (0.1 * (51.009 – 62.202) + 1)) = -0.060
To protect against massive swings or existential fluke wins, the max/min range of an exchange is between 0.010 and 2.000, so this Rating Exchange defaults to 0.010. Further, an Overtime halves the whole formula (see the 0.5 at the start), which represents how close a match was. Without the OT, the result would be -0.119. Still out of range.
GVSU gains 0.010 to 59.212
MSU loses 0.010 to 50.999
MSU def GVSU 2-0 [50.999 v 62.212]
Formula: (1.0 * (0.1 * (62.212 – 50.999) + 1)) = 2.121
This time the formula is reversed. Losing team’s rating is on the “left” of minus sign here, which represents an upset in the Gonzalez system. The big upset by MSU also falls out of our range, so we define this Rating Exchange as 2.000. If this match were an Overtime, MSU’s defeat wouldn’t hold the same weight. It would still be a technical upset at 1.061. Exchanges of 1 point represent both teams are the same strength.
MSU gains 2.000 to 52.999
GVSU loses 2.000 to 57.212
Takeaways:
The defined range: If a low rated team, say DePaul with 36.356 at #21, upset GVSU at home with 62.212, the rating exchange would be 3.587 without the minimum / max range. Reverse that and have GVSU predictably defeat DePaul. The rating exchange would be -1.587, meaning GVSU would actually lose major points for playing against such a low rating. And DePaul would gain points just by playing such a team. Even here, GVSU’s rating is so high that even playing MSU gives a negative result. And MSU’s rating is not too shabby when looking at the Gonzalez Standings as a whole.
MSU is good. But GVSU is better. The Gonzalez system excels at determining strengths by adjusting a Team’s rating over time. If this season’s Grand Valley team isn’t representative of their rating, it will quickly fall and others will rise in its place. MSU’s upset against GVSU gained them massive points, in fact, the max possible. And GVSU dropped to 57.212. GVSU’s rating now differs just 2.081 from #2 CMU, while MSU jumps to 4th with 52.999.
Hopes: I saw the results of this day as a fairly decent example to show how the Gonzalez System works using real world results. We had an overtime, we had an upset, and we had a exchange fall out of the defined range, and we had home court advantage. All these are good examples of the strengths of the Gonzalez rating system. If anyone has any questions, let them be known! Thanks for reading.
