The following was written by Guero Namara. You can find the original article on Medium at the below link. A big thanks to Guero for contributing this article!
I’ve been a Stan-level fan of the sport ever since I played for the VCU Rams (RIP) in 2012, and over the years, the NCDA has guaranteed two things every season: Excitement and certainty.
Year after year, it seemed all but guaranteed that the Grand Valley Lakers would be the last team standing. In 2019, Towson shocked the dodgeball world, and I wondered whether it was a legendary anomaly or if parity had finally come to the league. When the dust settled in 2022 after the two-year hiatus, the new boss sure looked a hell of a lot like the old boss, and the status quo was painted blue & white once again.
GV’s shadow began to loom over the rest of the league again until Michigan State’s perfect team knocked them off in 2023, and then they went back to back the following year. Like the Chiefs replacing the Patriots, the Spartans slid into the role of dynasty, and the NCDA seemed destined for a case of deja vu. Then, the 24–25 season went off-script. The reigning Champs sport a worse record than the last two years, several of the elites have risen and fallen, and no team has dominated consistently.
While there is and will always be a hierarchy in the league, the top is more muddled than ever. Typically, there are four elite teams with one clear favorite, but neither holds true with the Big Dance on the horizon. Though anything can happen in sports, I see six teams that have a real shot to go all the way. There are also nearly as many dark horses who are more likely to play disruptor than champion, which makes the narrative even spicier.
In many ways, it has been the year of Ohio dodgeball, with eight complete teams that can all compete in their own right. The Buckeye state has consistently filled out the top ten throughout the season, claiming more slots than all the other regions combined. As Akron, OU, and Miami send arguably their best teams ever, along with a surging Ohio State, the odds of the first Ohio champion since 2006 seem better than ever.
Despite the law of averages, it would be a fool’s errand to bet against the two teams that have owned the NCDA for nine of the last ten seasons. All things considered, the Champs are the champs until proven otherwise, and as long as the Lakers are suited up, the seatbelt sign will remain on. When every team from Georgia to Nebraska converges on Cleveland next weekend to clash, will it be business as usual, or has parity finally returned to the league?
We’ll find out in a matter of days, but until then, let’s take a gander at the tea leaves.
The Contenders
1 — The Michigan State Spartans
Nowadays, every talking head cashes their checks off of hot takes, upsets are perpetually en vogue among the drab backdrop of greatness begetting greatness. We’ve become so bored with things going the way they’re ‘supposed to’ that we all pine for David to sling out Goliath. While I love an underdog story as much as anyone, I’m an Occam’s razor kind of guy. Though I just witnessed a back-to-back champion get dunked on in front of millions, I won’t be the one swimming against the tide on this one.
Why The Spartans Can Win It All:
It has less to do with the past than the present.
MSU operates as an organization at a level that may be unrivaled across the league. There is an aura to the Spartans that few teams can match, they carry themselves like an Ali figure where they expect to win every time they step on the court. Simply put, they take dodgeball seriously, and it shows. This squad is star-studded, well-coached, and they have the essential experience after winning two titles in a row. They’ve been there before, and the moment won’t get too big for them.
They know what it takes not only to get there but to win, and the confidence they have rightfully earned is as much of a detriment to other teams as it is a boost to them. In their most recent bouts, they bulldozed Akron, the number one team in the league at the time, and they dominated their biggest rival with relative ease. After watching them play, even if I had just awakened from a coma and had no idea what had happened before this season, they would still be my top pick to win it all.
What’s In The Way:
With the way the Spartans played and recruited last year, a threepeat seemed imminent.
This season has gone differently than most (probably all) expected. The Lakers beat them three times in a row until they finally put a stop to it to claim their fourth Michican Dodgeball Cup in a row, but even after that dominant win, the threat of GV cannot be overstated. Last year, when coach Nguyen was interviewed before Nationals, he was asked who their biggest challenge was, and without hesitation he answered, ‘’It’s GV, it will always be GV,’’ and his answer is as pertinent now as it was then.
Though GV might be their biggest impediment, they are not the only thing standing in the way. The Bobcats impressively went on the road and beat the Spartans on a moment’s notice, and pound for pound, they have looked just as competent as any other team in the league. OU was one of only three teams to beat the Spartans, but the other Ohio elites could also prove challenging.
MSU’s drubbing of the Zips gives them the edge, but Akron can hang with anyone when they hit on all cylinders. With the Redhawks, you can never rule out a team tied for the most wins with only two losses, and OSU just whooped up on the same squad that has beaten MSU three times. Outside of the other Contenders, their upset against Kent State might be the biggest of the year. Anamolies happen, even to the best, but it proved that on any given day, crazy things can happen.
2 — The Grand Valley State Lakers
Numbers don’t always tell the full story, but they never lie. Since their inception, there have been 17 Nationals. GV has played in every final match but two, and they’ve won it all 11 times. The Lakers have never placed worse than the final four, and despite some recent slip-ups, I don’t see that streak ending this year.
Why The Lakers Can Win It All:
Precedence and pedigree aside, the Lakers have as much going for them as anyone else.
The biggest feather in their cap is their three wins over the Spartans. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, any team with championship aspirations will have to face MSU, and being able to beat them is imperative to storming the court on Sunday. In their last tournament of the regular season, GV won over Akron, another top-five team that has wins over many of their likely opponents. They also sport a win-loss record with nearly a 3:1 ratio, and they have played four of the other five Contenders with a winning record.
As long as they’ve been in the league, they’ve been elite, and it feels like they’re in every match, no matter the score. There have been some uncharacteristic upsets lately, but for most of the season, they looked like they could take down anyone. Between their legacy, their talent, and the militant way they operate, they are a lock to make the final four, and any team that makes the semifinals should be seen as a serious contender to go all the way.
What’s In The Way:
Despite having as good of a chance of making the final match as anyone, there are quite a few obstacles to GV’s journey to reclaim their throne.
MSU is public enemy number one despite their favorable 3–1 matchup record. The Spartans won their last matchup in dominant fashion, and since MDC, GV has looked less fearsome than the first half of the season while MSU stomped out the best team in the league at the time. Whenever these two teams go at it, it truly feels like anyone’s game, and flipping a coin for the crown isn’t as appealing as it may sound.
Several Ohio teams could also conceivably knock GV out of the tournament, and not just the usual suspects. The Bobcats beat GV on their own court. OSU just handed them their worst loss of the season. Akron lost admirably and kept it close, and most surprisingly of all, BGSU has now beaten them twice. GV is destined to play at least one of the aforementioned teams, will they be able to exact revenge on their way to the top?
3 — The Ohio University Bobcats
The Bobcats have been in the top-5 all season, and at times, they looked like the best team in the league. OU will enter Nationals with as impressive of a resume as any other team, and I believe they have the same chance to win it all as MSU and GV.
Why The Bobcats Can Win It All:
Akron has a better record, more matches under their belt, and they won the head-to-head match to win the Ohio Dodgeball Cup, so why is OU ranked higher?
Because, the Bobcats did something no other team in the league did this season, they beat both MSU and GV. For what it’s worth, I think Akron beats OU 6/10 times, but I’d rather take my chances on that 40% and their proven ability to beat the Michigan elites, which is a prerequisite to win it all at Nationals.
OU has more than two wins on the road in Michigan to support its case. They have a win-loss ratio of 3:1, they’ve beaten four of the other five Contenders, and they’re as talented as any other squad in the league. The Bobcats have been in and won every kind of match this season. They’ve dominated, they’ve won in OT, and they’ve come back from a 0–3 hole in what might have been the most impressive comeback of the season.
OU hit the last tournament of the year at just the right time. They managed to shake off any rust that they had accumulated post-ODC with two weeks to rest up while other teams have been mothballed for nearly a month. On paper, they have everything they need to make a run at the title: Star power, depth, and an impressive record. They’re the only team that has played against all the other Contenders, and they’ve come out on top for the most part.
What’s In The Way:
The Bobcats face many of the same perils as the other Contenders, namely, each other.
While they have faced the other five elites with favorable outcomes, they did lose to Akron and Miami, and they only played MSU and GV once. A lot can change in a month, or even a couple of weeks for that matter. They have beaten OSU twice, but the Buckeyes they may play in Cleveland are not the same squad they played at ODC.
Not to nitpick, but they also dropped two games to teams they should have beaten, and while going to OT is always respectable, losing in OT multiple times could point to a pressure problem. They also haven’t played against top competition in nearly a month. Seeding will play a big role in their chances (as it will for every team), but if OU can beat or avoid Akron, their chances of winning the final match are as good as anyone’s.
4 — The Akron Zips
Akron ended the season tied for the most wins in the league, won ODC, and claimed the top spot of the power rankings. It could already be argued that this has been the most successful season in Akron’s history.
Why They Can Win It All:
The Zips won a lot of games this season, and they played more than any of the other Contenders.
They’ll roll into Nationals with a ridiculous 5:1 win-loss ratio, and they only lost three times. They’ve dominated the Ohio region, and they’re coming off of a tournament where they beat OSU, destroyed BG, and hung tight with GV. Their anyone, anywhere, anytime attitude isn’t a front, this team can play any style, and they’ll likely beat you at your own game.
Akron is as passionate of a dodgeball organization as you’ll find across the league, they’re so deep that their B team could beat many of the teams ranked in the bottom half of the league. They have a rock-solid roster, a fiery coach, they do everything well, and I’d put their OT6 against anyone’s. When Akron is on, they look like the best team in the league.
What’s In The Way:
Akron’s biggest challenge is their 0–2 record against GV and MSU.
If they’re to win it all, they will face at least one of them. While they kept it close against GV, it was against probably the worst iteration that the Lakers fielded all season. In their only matchup with MSU, the Spartans treated them like a gong. To be the best, you have to beat the best, and that just didn’t happen during the regular season.
I’m confident in Akron making the final four, and if they draw a fellow Ohio team, I’d say they’re a lock for the Big Dance, but I don’t like their odds against the Spartans with half of the building screaming ‘Go Green, Go White!’
5 — The Ohio State Buckeyes
Let’s just get this out of the way, last year’s team was quite possibly their best team ever, or at least since 2006. It was hard to tell what kind of squad the Buckeyes would field this season with so many departures, and though they might not be quite as venerated as last year, they’ve literally thrown(and caught) themselves into the mix of serious Contenders.
Why They Can Win It All:
It might seem odd to consider a team with nearly as many losses as wins among the league’s elites, but they have earned the scrutiny, for better or worse.
OSU has been the epitome of the proverbial ‘tale of two halves’. Their second half has been just as impressive as the first was disappointing. In the Fall, the Bucks came out flat, they just couldn’t seem to find their groove. By the time everything wrapped up for the holidays, it seemed like they would be lucky to get out of the first round, much less compete for the crown. Fast-forward to the contemporary, and OSU has been on a hot streak that should make the rest of the league take notice.
Sure, they’ve only won a few more games than they’ve lost, but they’ve been winning a lot more than they’ve been losing as of late, and they just handed GV its worst loss of the season. They also upset the RedHawks at ODC, which was no small feat. Everyone expected them to take a step back after nearly winning it all last season, and after a rough stretch, they’re getting hot at the perfect time to make noise.
What’s In The Way:
Akron, for starters. In four matchups, including their most recent, Akron has beaten OSU three out of four times.
The Buckeyes have beaten Akron, GV, and Miami over the season, but they have twice as many losses against other Contenders, and the Bobcats have beaten them twice. OSU is spunky, scrappy, and every other pugnacious word out there, but at the end of the day, they’ve won two more games than they’ve lost. The other elites have mostly handled them, and unless everything breaks their way, they’re more likely to make things interesting than to make a run.
6 — The Miami Redhawks
The Redhawks have quietly had an excellent season, they tied for the most wins in the league while only losing twice, despite playing more games than anyone besides Akron.
Why They Can Win It All:
It’s hard not to take the team with the best win-loss ratio in the league seriously.
The Hawks played a ton of games, and they nearly won every one of them. They also beat the Bobcats and Buckeyes, two teams that they very well could see in later stages of the tournament. They’re flying under the radar, which could also work to their advantage, and though they have a lot of rookies, they’ve played well. Their roster is fresh while also having enough experience to get the newbies up to speed.
In their most recent outing, they went on the road with a compromised squad and still went undefeated with several gritty matches that proved that they can win even when things don’t go their way. They have a solid foundation of leadership, they’re tough, they work well as a team, and they can shoot it out with anyone. Brass tacks, the RedHawks win so much that losing is a foreign concept, and after years of steadily getting better, they appear ready to take flight.
What’s In The Way:
So, if there is one knock on the RedHawks, it’s the level of their competition.
Yes, they won a lot of games, but other than a win over the Bobcats(which came very early in the season) and a win over OSU, they haven’t even played the other elites, and that lack of iron sharpening iron could bite them when they hit the final eight and onward.
Not only have they only played two of the other five elites, they’ve played the fewest elite v. elite games of any of the Contenders, and the last two times they played against them, they lost. Having a lot of rookies is bittersweet, I listed the good vibes above, but the lack of experience can really show when you’re in a win-or-go-home game against a team full of killers and your nerves start acting up.
It feels criminal to list the most-winning team in the league at six of six, but with their lack of playtime against the other Contenders, I just can’t see them getting past the final four.
When the NCDA’s finest hit the Cleveland State Univeristy campus this weekend, hundreds of matches, countless hours of practice, and the blood, sweat, & tears of every baller who took the court this season will all boil down to one question. Crystal balls and soothsayers be damned, only the talent, grit, and heart of the players hold the answer.
