In the 2022 Season, we have 45 technical upsets in 172 ranked matches (73.84% success rate) across 22 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 79.79% based on 443 technical upsets in 2,192 ranked matches played since 09-25-2010. There were nine technical upsets since our last standings update.
JMU def UC 3-1
44.981 def 48.972, exchanging 2.811
JMU defeated UC at Nationals. Overall, the technical upset ranks 96th all time and falls in the 78th percentile. Additionally, the technical upset ranks 13th all time of all upsets at Nationals.
Towson def Akron 4-1
42.170 def 43.347, exchanging 2.235
Towson defeated Akron at Nationals. Overall, the technical upset ranks 306th all time and falls in the 30th percentile. Additionally, the technical upset ranks 44th all time of all upsets at Nationals.
MSU def OSU 4-2
45.453 def 46.265, exchanging 2.162
MSU defeated OSU at Nationals. Overall, the technical upset ranks 355th all time and falls in the 20th percentile. Additionally, the technical upset ranks 58th all time of all upsets at Nationals.
UWP def CSU 4-1
45.453 def 46.265, exchanging 2.162
UWP defeated CSU at Nationals. Overall, the technical upset ranks 356th all time and falls in the 20th percentile. Additionally, the technical upset ranks 59th all time of all upsets at Nationals.
UMD def WMU 3-1
35.897 def 35.261 (+1), exchanging 2.073
UMD defeated WMU at Nationals. Overall, the technical upset ranks 397th all time and falls in the 11th percentile. Additionally, the technical upset ranks 73rd all time of all upsets at Nationals.
BGSU def PSU 5-4 (OT)
43.368 def 43.445, exchanging 1.008
BGSU defeated PSU at Nationals. Overall, the technical upset ranks 435th all time and falls in the 2nd percentile. The technical upset ranks 76th all time among all overtime upsets. Additionally, the technical upset ranks 77th all time of all upsets at Nationals.
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team | W-L |
| ↑ from 2 | 1 | 54.197 | GVSU | 20-2 |
| ↑ from 4 | 2 | 49.395 | MSU | 13-4 |
| ↑ from 5 | 3 | 49.043 | JMU | 14-6 |
| ↓ from 1 | 4 | 46.978 | UC | 21-4 |
| ↑ from 11 | 5 | 46.230 | Towson | 13-10 |
| ↓ from 3 | 6 | 44.752 | OSU | 14-6 |
| ↓ from 6 | 7 | 43.333 | Ohio | 9-8 |
| ↓ from 7 | 8 | 42.850 | PSU | 10-7 |
| — | 9 | 40.784 | UNL | 7-3 |
| ↓ from 8 | 10 | 40.735 | BGSU | 12-8 |
| ↓ from 10 | 11 | 39.953 | Akron | 11-11 |
| ↑ from 13 | 12 | 39.884 | SVSU | 7-14 |
| — | 13 | 39.612 | UVA | 2-3 |
| ↑ from 16 | 14 | 38.759 | UWP | 5-14 |
| ↑ from 18 | 15 | 38.627 | UMD | 5-14 |
| ↑ from 17 | 16 | 37.742 | VCU | 1-7 |
| ↓ from 12 | 17 | 37.342 | CSU | 6-11 |
| ↑ from 19 | 18 | 37.205 | BSU | 0-3 |
| ↑ from 21 | 19 | 36.615 | Kent | 0-3 |
| ↑ from 22 | 20 | 36.201 | Miami | 1-13 |
| ↓ from 15 | 21 | 32.668 | UK | 1-9 |
| ↓ from 20 | 23 | 31.466 | WMU | 0-10 |
Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
| GVSU | 48.593 | 54.197 | 5.604 |
| Towson | 40.806 | 46.230 | 5.424 |
| JMU | 44.918 | 49.043 | 4.125 |
| MSU | 45.453 | 49.395 | 3.942 |
| UMD | 37.261 | 38.627 | 1.366 |
| Miami | 35.028 | 36.201 | 1.173 |
| UWP | 38.073 | 38.759 | 0.686 |
| PSU | 42.628 | 42.850 | 0.222 |
| SVSU | 39.944 | 39.884 | -0.060 |
| Ohio | 44.527 | 43.333 | -1.194 |
| OSU | 46.017 | 44.752 | -1.265 |
| UNL | 42.366 | 40.784 | -1.582 |
| BGSU | 42.470 | 40.735 | -1.735 |
| CSU | 39.212 | 37.342 | -1.870 |
| UC | 48.972 | 46.978 | -1.994 |
| Akron | 42.142 | 39.953 | -2.189 |
| WMU | 36.624 | 31.466 | -5.158 |
| UK | 38.166 | 32.668 | -5.498 |
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probability Calculator