In the 2022 Season, we have 35 technical upsets in 127 ranked matches (72.44% success rate) across 20 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 79.83% based on 433 technical upsets in 2,147 ranked matches played since 09-25-2010. There were three technical upsets since our last standings update.
Towson def PSU 4-2
39.328 def 44.106, exchanging 1.478
Towson defeated PSU at the Maryland Mayhem. Overall, the technical upset ranks 65th all time and falls in the 85th percentile.
UWP def UK 4-2
37.309 def 39.383, exchanging 1.207
UWP defeated UK at the Clifton Heights Classic. Overall, the technical upset ranks 222nd all time and falls in the 49th percentile.
Towson def UMD 5-0
38.147 def 38.962 (+1), exchanging 1.181
Towson defeated UMD at the Maryland Mayhem. Overall, the technical upset ranks 244th all time and falls in the 44th percentile.
|↑ from 2||1||48.972||UC||17-2|
|↓ from 1||2||48.593||GVSU||13-2|
|↑ from 16||11||40.806||Towson||9-9|
|↓ from 11||12||40.221||CSU||5-6|
|↓ from 12||15||38.166||UK||1-5|
|↑ from 18||16||38.073||UWP||4-11|
|↓ from 15||18||37.261||UMD||3-11|
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probability Calculator