In the 2022 Season, we have 25 technical upsets in 84 ranked matches (70.24% success rate) across 14 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 79.90% based on 423 technical upsets in 2,104 ranked matches played since 09-25-2010. There were seven technical upsets since our last standings update.
Akron def BGSU 3-1
41.662 def 44.978 (+1), exchanging 1.432
Akron defeated BGSU at the Ohio Dodgeball Cup. Overall, the technical upset ranks 78th all time and falls in the 82nd percentile.
PSU def Towson 4-2
41.885 def 47.000, exchanging 1.411
PSU defeated Towson at the Happy Valley Throwdown. Overall, the technical upset ranks 88th all time and falls in the 79th percentile.
JMU def PSU 6-1
40.231 def 43.291, exchanging 1.406
JMU defeated PSU at the Happy Valley Throwdown. Overall, the technical upset ranks 91st all time and falls in the 78th percentile.
JMU def Towson 5-0
42.254 def 45.588, exchanging 1.333
JMU defeated Towson at the Happy Valley Throwdown. Overall, the technical upset ranks 135th all time and falls in the 68th percentile.
Ohio def Akron 3-2, OT
40.813 def 42.858, exchanging 0.602
Ohio defeated Akron at the Ohio Dodgeball Cup. Overall, the technical upset ranks 217th all time and falls in the 49th percentile.
BGSU def OSU 4-3
43.587 (+1) def 45.643, exchanging 1.106
BGSU defeated OSU at the Ohio Dodgeball Cup. Overall, the technical upset ranks 313th all time and falls in the 26th percentile.
UC def BGSU 3-1
45.288 def 44.620 (+1), exchanging 1.033
UC defeated BGSU at the Ohio Dodgeball Cup. Overall, the technical upset ranks 383rd all time and falls in the 9th percentile.
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
| ↑ from 3 | 1 | 47.677 | UC |
| — | 2 | 46.895 | GVSU |
| ↑ from 6 | 3 | 44.364 | MSU |
| ↓ from 1 | 4 | 44.255 | Towson |
| ↓ from 4 | 5 | 43.775 | OSU |
| ↑ from 16 | 6 | 43.588 | JMU |
| — | 7 | 43.586 | PSU |
| ↓ from 5 | 8 | 43.547 | BGSU |
| ↓ from 8 | 9 | 43.094 | Akron |
| ↓ from 9 | 10 | 42.571 | UNL |
| ↓ from 10 | 11 | 41.991 | CMU |
| ↓ from 11 | 12 | 41.129 | Ohio |
| ↓ from 12 | 13 | 40.655 | CSU |
| ↓ from 13 | 14 | 40.392 | ZAG |
| ↓ from 14 | 15 | 40.386 | OS |
| ↓ from 15 | 16 | 40.344 | UNG |
| — | 17 | 39.981 | UK |
| — | 18 | 39.612 | UVA |
| — | 19 | 39.571 | WVU |
| — | 20 | 38.995 | SIUE |
| — | 21 | 38.901 | MC |
| — | 22 | 38.713 | NSU |
| — | 23 | 38.703 | DePaul |
| — | 24 | 38.546 | SVSU |
| — | 25 | 38.526 | GSU |
| — | 26 | 37.931 | VCU |
| ↑ from 28 | 27 | 37.879 | WMU |
| ↑ from 29 | 28 | 37.317 | Miami |
| ↑ from 30 | 29 | 37.245 | UWP |
| ↑ from 31 | 30 | 37.205 | BSU |
| ↓ from 27 | 31 | 36.904 | UMD |
| — | 32 | 36.615 | Kent |
| — | 33 | 33.000 | MSU-B |
| — | 34 | 33.000 | GVSU-B |
| — | 35 | 33.000 | CMU-B |
| — | 36 | 33.000 | Ohio-B |
| — | 37 | 32.393 | OSU-B |
Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
| JMU | 40.231 | 43.588 | 3.357 |
| UC | 45.288 | 47.677 | 2.389 |
| PSU | 43.291 | 43.586 | 0.295 |
| Akron | 42.858 | 43.094 | 0.236 |
| Ohio | 41.459 | 41.129 | -0.330 |
| UMD | 37.912 | 36.904 | -1.008 |
| BGSU | 44.620 | 43.547 | -1.073 |
| OSU | 44.997 | 43.775 | -1.222 |
| Towson | 46.898 | 44.255 | -2.643 |
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probability Calculator