In the 2022 Season, we have 12 technical upsets in 41 ranked matches (70.73% success rate) across 7 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.11% based on 410 technical upsets in 2,061 ranked matches played since 09-25-2010. There were three technical upsets since our last standings update.
OSU def JMU 4-2
41.225 def 42.814, exchanging 1.159
OSU defeated JMU at the 2nd Annual John Betters’ Bobcat Bonanza. Overall, the technical upset ranks 248th all time, and falls in the 40th percentile all time.
UC def Ohio 6-2
42.529 def 42.794, exchanging 1.126
UC defeated Ohio at the 2nd Annual John Betters’ Bobcat Bonanza. Overall, the technical upset ranks 278th all time, and falls in the 32nd percentile all time.
UNL def UWP 4-1
39.863 def 39.948, exchanging 1.108
UNL defeated UWP at the Pioneer Classic. Overall, the technical upset ranks 297th all time, and falls in the 28th percentile all time.
|↑ from 4||3||44.386||UC|
|↑ from 11||4||43.767||OSU|
|↓ from 3||5||43.291||PSU|
|↑ from 7||6||42.419||Akron|
|↑ from 9||7||42.408||BGSU|
|↑ from 10||9||41.991||CMU|
|↑ from 20||10||41.858||UNL|
|↓ from 6||11||41.467||Ohio|
|↓ from 5||16||40.231||JMU|
|↓ from 16||17||40.174||UK|
|↓ from 17||18||40.061||WMU|
|↓ from 18||19||40.005||CSU|
|↑ from 21||20||39.612||UVA|
|↑ from 22||21||39.571||WVU|
|↑ from 24||22||38.995||SIUE|
|↑ from 25||23||38.901||MC|
|↑ from 26||24||38.754||Kent|
|↑ from 27||25||38.713||NSU|
|↑ from 28||26||38.703||DePaul|
|↑ from 29||27||38.536||BSU|
|↑ from 30||28||38.526||GSU|
|↓ from 19||29||37.952||UWP|
|↑ from 31||30||37.931||VCU|
|↑ from 32||31||37.912||UMD|
|↓ from 23||32||37.305||Miami|
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probability Calculator