Standings are released every Tuesday
In the 2020 Season, we have 38 technical upsets in 155 ranked matches (75.48% success rate) across 19 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.26% based on 389 technical upsets in 1971 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25. There were five technical upsets since our last standings update.
OSU def Miami 3-2 (OT)
43.599 def 49.036, exchanging 0.772 points
The Buckeyes were able to spoil what would’ve been a perfect day for Miami with a 3-2 overtime victory. The overtime result halves all exchanges, leading to the 0.772 point exchange. Overall, the technical upset ranks 34th all time, and falls in the 91st percentile. Among overtime upsets, it ranks 10th overall out of 70.
Miami def Ohio 2-1
47.227 def 49.626 (+1), exchanging 1.340 points
In their first game of the day, Miami was able to do what no other team has been able to thus far and knocked off Ohio. Overall, the technical upset ranks 124th all time, and falls in the 68th percentile.
UC def Akron 5-2
39.832 def 42.934, exchanging 1.310 points
Cincinnati was able to pull off a technical upset over Akron in a high scoring affair. Overall, the technical upset ranks 138th all time, and falls in the 65th percentile.
Akron def BGSU 3-2
41.644 def 44.546, exchanging 1.290 points
The Zips were able to get their first win of the season over in state rival BGSU in technical upset fashion. Overall, the technical upset ranks 152nd all time, and falls in the 61st percentile.
WVU def MC by forfeit
35.013 def 35.716, exchanging 1.070 points
Due to a late drop from Marietta, WVU was awarded a forfeit victory. Overall, the technical upset ranks 321st all time, and falls in the 17th percentile.
|↑ from 4||3||49.204||JMU|
|↓ from 3||4||48.903||Ohio|
|↑ from 6||5||48.264||Miami|
|↑ from 7||6||48.205||MSU|
|↓ from 5||7||46.818||CMU|
|↑ from 9||8||44.536||VCU|
|↑ from 10||9||44.371||OSU|
|↑ from 11||10||43.381||UMD|
|↑ from 12||11||43.074||UWP|
|↓ from 8||12||42.973||BGSU|
|↑ from 15||14||41.624||Akron|
|↓ from 14||15||41.380||PSU|
|↑ from 21||16||41.005||UC|
|↓ from 16||17||40.745||UNG|
|↓ from 17||18||40.422*†||ZAG|
|↓ from 18||19||40.399*†||OS|
|↓ from 19||20||39.855||CSU|
|↓ from 20||21||39.837||UK|
|↑ from 23||22||38.209||UNL|
|↓ from 22||23||38.024||WMU|
|↑ from 27||25||36.083||WVU|
|↑ from 28||27||35.221||Kent|
|↓ from 25||28||34.460||MC|
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
The biggest gains from the weekend were for UC, MSU, and Miami. Each team only had 1 loss, with UC and Miami also pulling off technical upsets. MSU put together a solid performance at MDC to break their curse and also gain some points, getting wins over CMU, SVSU, and WMU.
On the opposite end, MC, BGSU, and WMU saw the biggest losses. In MC’s case it was due to the 3 forfeits, and WMU went 0-4, albeit against the toughest schedule of any team this weekend. BGSU had tough losses to Akron and Miami which brought their rating down.
OSU, Akron, GVSU, and WVU all posted modest gains from the weekend thanks to some favorable results. GVSU in particular is an interesting case because even with a 4-0 performance they are far enough ahead rating wise to only get a little over the minimum exchange with each win.
Strength of Schedule Spotlight
This section is meant to provide a perspective on which teams are playing the hardest schedules by Gonzalez Rating. It is a pure average of all the teams played at the time of playing them.
|Rank||Team||Avg. Opp. Rating|
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probabilty Calculator