Standings as of 2020-02-12

Standings are released every Tuesday

In the 2020 Season, we have 38 technical upsets in 155 ranked matches (75.48% success rate) across 19 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the each Nationals bracket since 2017.

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.26% based on 389 technical upsets in 1971 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25. There were five technical upsets since our last standings update.

OSU def Miami 3-2 (OT)

43.599 def 49.036, exchanging 0.772 points

The Buckeyes were able to spoil what would’ve been a perfect day for Miami with a 3-2 overtime victory. The overtime result halves all exchanges, leading to the 0.772 point exchange. Overall, the technical upset ranks 34th all time, and falls in the 91st percentile. Among overtime upsets, it ranks 10th overall out of 70.

Miami def Ohio 2-1

47.227 def 49.626 (+1), exchanging 1.340 points

In their first game of the day, Miami was able to do what no other team has been able to thus far and knocked off Ohio. Overall, the technical upset ranks 124th all time, and falls in the 68th percentile.

UC def Akron 5-2

39.832 def 42.934, exchanging 1.310 points

Cincinnati was able to pull off a technical upset over Akron in a high scoring affair. Overall, the technical upset ranks 138th all time, and falls in the 65th percentile.

Akron def BGSU 3-2

41.644 def 44.546, exchanging 1.290 points

The Zips were able to get their first win of the season over in state rival BGSU in technical upset fashion. Overall, the technical upset ranks 152nd all time, and falls in the 61st percentile.

WVU def MC by forfeit

35.013 def 35.716, exchanging 1.070 points

Due to a late drop from Marietta, WVU was awarded a forfeit victory. Overall, the technical upset ranks 321st all time, and falls in the 17th percentile.


Ratings, sorted.

Mov.RankRatingTeam
156.004GVSU
251.562Towson
↑ from 4349.204JMU
↓ from 3448.903Ohio
↑ from 6548.264Miami
↑ from 7648.205MSU
↓ from 5746.818CMU
↑ from 9844.536VCU
↑ from 10944.371OSU
↑ from 111043.381UMD
↑ from 121143.074UWP
↓ from 81242.973BGSU
1341.868SVSU
↑ from 151441.624Akron
↓ from 141541.380PSU
↑ from 211641.005UC
↓ from 161740.745UNG
↓ from 171840.422*† ZAG
↓ from 181940.399*† OS
↓ from 192039.855CSU
↓ from 202139.837UK
↑ from 232238.209UNL
↓ from 222338.024WMU
2436.905UVA
↑ from 272536.083WVU
2635.946SIUE
↑ from 282735.221Kent
↓ from 252834.460MC
2934.243BSU
3033.877*GVSU-B
3133.709*† NSU
3233.668DePaul
3333.619GSU
3432.793*† MSU-B
3532.000*† CMU-B
3631.425*Ohio-B

* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.


Rating Changes

Rating ChangesPrePostChange
UC39.18541.0051.820
MSU46.97248.2051.233
Miami47.22748.2641.037
OSU43.88144.3710.490
Akron41.13541.6240.489
GVSU55.62456.0040.380
WVU35.85836.0830.225
SVSU42.06341.868-0.195
CMU47.35046.818-0.532
Ohio49.62648.903-0.723
WMU38.91138.024-0.886
BGSU44.54642.973-1.573
MC36.22534.460-1.765

The biggest gains from the weekend were for UC, MSU, and Miami. Each team only had 1 loss, with UC and Miami also pulling off technical upsets. MSU put together a solid performance at MDC to break their curse and also gain some points, getting wins over CMU, SVSU, and WMU.

On the opposite end, MC, BGSU, and WMU saw the biggest losses. In MC’s case it was due to the 3 forfeits, and WMU went 0-4, albeit against the toughest schedule of any team this weekend. BGSU had tough losses to Akron and Miami which brought their rating down.

OSU, Akron, GVSU, and WVU all posted modest gains from the weekend thanks to some favorable results. GVSU in particular is an interesting case because even with a 4-0 performance they are far enough ahead rating wise to only get a little over the minimum exchange with each win.


Strength of Schedule Spotlight

This section is meant to provide a perspective on which teams are playing the hardest schedules by Gonzalez Rating. It is a pure average of all the teams played at the time of playing them.

RankTeamAvg. Opp. Rating
1WMU49.033
2MSU48.178
3JMU45.971
4CMU45.852
5GVSU45.644
6SVSU45.517
7Towson45.435
8UMD43.464
9Miami43.167
10OSU43.028
11BGSU42.958
12GSU42.887
13UVA41.961
14WVU41.765
15UK41.515
16VCU41.129
17Kent40.943
18UC40.434
19PSU40.188
20Ohio40.159
21UWP40.026
22Akron39.960
23CSU39.707
24UNL39.581
25UNG39.322
26DePaul38.431
27SIUE38.100
28BSU37.015

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec DocProbabilty Calculator

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *