Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2019 Season, we have 38 technical upsets in 202 ranked matches (81.19% success rate) across 27 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.32% based on 344 technical upsets in 1748 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
There were seven technical upsets since our last standings update.
NSU def DePaul 6-1
31.165 def 37.442, exchanging 1.628
Northwestern State picked up their first win of the season against DePaul in Wisconsin. It was NSU’s first victory since the 2013-14 season, and ranks in the 95th percentile as the 18th highest rated upset of all-time.
Ohio def BGSU 3-1
41.951 def 46.378 (+1), exchanging 1.543
Ohio was able to best Bowling Green State at ODC in an important victory away from home. The Bobcats continue to shoot up the rankings with big wins, as this upset ranks in the 90th percentile and is tied for the 34th rated upset of all-time.
CSU def UC 7-1
37.162 def 40.000, exchanging 1.284
Cleveland State defeated Cincinnati in their induction match to the NCDA which also resulted in a technical upset. CSU’s victory ranks in the 62nd percentile as the 131st ranked technical upset all-time.
NSU def DePaul 6-0
32.792 def 35.231, exchanging 1.244
Make that two victories for Demon Dodgeball. In their second technical upset, NSU walked away with a healthy 1.244 point exchange. The upset ranks in the 56th percentile as the 151st ranked upset all-time.
UMD def UVA 4-1
37.446 def 38.961, exchanging 1.152
Maryland has now evened up their 2019 record with the Cavaliers at two wins each. Maryland’s technical upset victory places in the 39th percentile and ranks as the 211th upset all-time.
BGSU def Miami 3-2 (OT)
44.835 (+1) def 48.227, exchanging 0.620
BGSU was able to guarantee a chance to compete for the ODC title by defeating Miami in the last scheduled match of the day. Overall, the upset ranks 30th among all overtime upsets.
Akron def Kent 3-2 (OT)
43.337 def 44.052, exchanging 0.536
Akron picked up their second ever program win over Kent State, defeating the Flashes in overtime for a 0.536 point exchange. Overall, the upset ranks 50th among all overtime upsets.
Net Rating Changes
For the second weekend in a row we welcome a new team to the NCDA. Everyone say hello to the University of Cincinnati!
With three events going on there were a lot of teams getting in on the action. NSU’s two upset victories over DePaul placed them at the very top of net rating changes with a staggering 2.724 point gain. OSU also came away with some important wins as well over Cincinnati and CSU to give them a significant bump. Maryland was the biggest point earner out of the East Coast thanks to their upset victory over Virginia.
|↑ from 12||10||43.923||Ohio|
|↓ from 10||12||43.516||Kent|
|↑ from 21||13||41.134||OSU|
|↓ from 13||14||40.924||PSU|
|↓ from 14||15||40.679||UNG|
|↓ from 15||16||40.622||UNT†|
|↓ from 16||17||40.534||UK|
|↓ from 17||18||40.260||ZAG*†|
|↓ from 18||19||40.230||OS*†|
|↑ from 22||21||39.615||WMU*|
|↑ from 26||22||39.564||UWP|
|↑ from 24||23||39.185||UWW*†|
|↑ from 25||24||39.163||NIU*†|
|↑ from 30||25||38.598||UMD|
|↑ from 27||26||38.510||SIUE†|
|↓ from 23||27||37.810||UVA|
|↓ from 19||30||37.355||UC*|
|↑ from 32||31||37.197||UNL|
|↑ from 33||32||36.918||UCF†|
|↑ from 34||33||36.912||SU†|
|↑ from 35||34||35.653||WVU|
|↑ from 36||35||34.666||MC|
|↑ from 37||36||34.656||GSU|
|↑ from 40||37||34.036||NSU|
|↓ from 31||38||33.987||DePaul|
|↓ from 38||39||33.203||BW|
|↓ from 39||40||32.413||BSU|
Movement as of 2019-02-12
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
Strength of Schedule Spotlight
Strength of Schedule is typically used as a measure to determine what level of competition each team is facing relative to their peers. The way to read it is fairly simple, the higher the average opponent rating, the tougher your schedule.
|Rank||Team||Avg. Opp. Rating|
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor