Standings as of 2019-02-12

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2019 Season, we have 30 technical upsets in 169 ranked matches (82.25% success rate) across 23 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.41% based on 336 technical upsets in 1715 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

There were no technical upsets since the last standings update…jk.

MSU def Towson 3-2 (OT)

47.507 def 52.993, exchanging 0.774

We had a bevy of overtime results this past weekend, two of which resulted in upsets.  The Spartans got a signature win they were desperately looking for over second ranked Towson.  Overall, this ranks in the 91st percentile of overtime upsets based on the rating gap, and ranks as the #8 overall overtime upset all time.

Ohio def VCU 4-0

43.939 def 45.938, exchanging 1.200

The Bobcats picked up their first ever win over VCU in dominating fashion.  Overall, the upset falls in the 49th percentile and ranks 171st all time.

UK def OSU 2-1 (OT)

39.620 def 41.071, exchanging 0.573

Our other overtime upset came when Kentucky defeated Ohio State on day one of WAR III.  Kentucky’s upset falls in the 37th percentile, and ranks 38th in overtime upsets all time.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
MSU 46.648 48.281 1.633
CMU 47.086 48.119 1.032
Towson 51.403 52.219 0.816
Miami 46.797 47.263 0.466
BGSU 45.219 45.633 0.414
UK 40.140 40.534 0.394
CSU 37.216 37.547 0.330
SVSU 48.891 49.011 0.120
Akron 43.675 43.696 0.021
VCU 44.944 44.738 -0.206
PSU 41.508 40.924 -0.585
Ohio 43.565 42.848 -0.717
Kent 44.957 43.883 -1.074
BSU 33.613 32.413 -1.200
OSU 41.071 39.625 -1.446

To (hopefully) no one’s surprise, MSU was able to survive WAR III and walk away with a good amount of points.  Their fellow in-state rivals CMU and SVSU also walked away with a positive net gain from the event.  MSU’s three wins brought them up to 7-6 on the year, and pushed them up to #5 in the nation (see below).  In total, all Michigan teams had a net gain of 2.785 points which was the most out of the other region teams.

Towson took on what was arguably the most difficult schedule of the weekend and fared well.  With a solid 0.816 point gain, they provided more of a cushion between them and JMU, and helped narrow the gap against #1 GVSU.  Fellow East Coast schools VCU and PSU did not garner the same bump as Towson, as both schools received a net loss following defeats to Ohio.

As for the Ohio region schools, teams either had marginal gains or fairly significant drops.  Miami, BGSU, CSU, and Akron all had positive net gains while Ohio, Kent, and OSU saw their rating totals drop.  A 2-1 weekend for UK helped give them a slight boost to jump up to #16 overall, while BSU dropped one spot as a result of their losses.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 56.835 GVSU
2 52.219 Towson
3 50.145 JMU
4 49.011 SVSU
↑ from 7 5 48.281 MSU
↓ from 5 6 48.119 CMU
↓ from 6 7 47.263 Miami
8 45.633 BGSU
↑ from 10 9 44.738 VCU
↓ from 9 10 43.883 Kent
11 43.696 Akron
12 42.848 Ohio
13 40.924 PSU
↑ from 15 14 40.679 UNG
↑ from 16 15 40.622† UNT
↑ from 19 16 40.534 UK
17 40.260*† ZAG
18 40.230*† OS
↑ from 20 19 39.767 WKU
↓ from 14 20 39.625 OSU
21 39.203 UVA
22 39.185*† UWW
23 39.163*† NIU
24 38.832 UWP
25 38.510 SIUE
26 37.722*† Midland
↑ from 29 27 37.547 CSU
↓ from 27 28 37.466 UMD
↓ from 28 29 37.442† DePaul
30 37.197 UNL
31 36.918† UCF
32 36.912† SU
33 35.653 WVU
34 34.666 MC
35 34.656 GSU
↑ from 37 36 33.203 BW
↓ from 36 37 32.413 BSU
38 31.313 NSU

Movement as of 2019-01-29

* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

Strength of Schedule Spotlight

Strength of Schedule is typically used as a measure to determine what level of competition each team is facing relative to their peers.  The way to read it is fairly simple, the higher the average opponent rating, the tougher your schedule.

Rank Team Avg. Opp. Rating
1 MSU 48.173
2 SVSU 47.397
3 CMU 46.545
4 JMU 45.648
5 GVSU 45.279
6 UMD 45.141
7 PSU 44.406
8 Kent 44.353
9 Miami 44.260
10 BGSU 43.675
11 UVA 43.569
12 Towson 43.483
13 UWP 43.026
14 OSU 42.825
15 VCU 42.755
16 UK 42.664
17 Ohio 42.485
18 BSU 42.017
19 UNL 41.850
20 WVU 41.547
21 Akron 40.284
22 CSU 40.256
23 MC 39.650
24 GSU 39.193
25 BW 39.054
26 SIUE 39.046
27 NSU 38.045
28 UNG 36.402

 


See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 201120122013201420152016201720182019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor

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