Standings as of 2019-02-19

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2019 Season, we have 31 technical upsets in 179 ranked matches (82.68% success rate) across 24 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.41% based on 337 technical upsets in 1725 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

There was one technical upset since our last standings update.

SVSU def MSU 4-1

48.883 def 49.175 (+1), exchanging 1.129

The Cardinals picked up their second win of the season over MSU, both times at MSU, and received 1.129 points for the technical upset.  It is on the lower end of the technical upset spectrum, coming in at 225th all time and in the 33rd percentile.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
SVSU 49.011 50.757 1.745
GVSU 56.835 57.309 0.474
WMU 40.000 39.615 -0.385
MSU 48.281 47.853 -0.428
CMU 48.119 46.713 -1.406

First off, congratulations to Western Michigan on becoming the 54th member team of the National Collegiate Dodgeball Association!  WMU is now the 5th active team in the state of Michigan.  Best of luck the rest of the way!

In terms of rating changes, SVSU made the most out of their return to MDC after a controversial one-year hiatus.  Most of this was in part to their upset win over MSU, but they also received points in wins over WMU and CMU.  GVSU continued their win streak at MDC, winning their 5th consecutive championship and picking up some decent exchanges along the way.

WMU, MSU, and CMU find themselves on the opposite end of the exchanges this week.  In WMU’s introduction tournament they unfortunately had to face off against arguably the toughest slate in NCDA history.  Because of this, despite going 0-4 they lost minimal points.  MSU went flat at 2-2 record wise, but giving up an upset against SVSU spoiled what would’ve been a positive weekend for the Spartans.  CMU finds themselves at the end of the list after going 1-3, with the lone win coming against WMU.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 57.309 GVSU
2 52.219 Towson
↑ from 4 3 50.757 SVSU
↓ from 3 4 50.145 JMU
5 47.853 MSU
↑ from 7 6 47.263 Miami
↓ from 6 7 46.713 CMU
8 45.633 BGSU
9 44.738 VCU
10 43.883 Kent
11 43.696 Akron
12 42.848 Ohio
13 40.924 PSU
14 40.679 UNG
15 40.622 UNT
16 40.534 UK
17 40.260*† ZAG
18 40.230*† OS
↑ from 20 19 39.767 WKU
↑ from 21 20 39.625 OSU
↓ from 19 21 39.615 WMU
22 39.203 UVA
23 39.185*† UWW
24 39.163*† NIU
25 38.832 UWP
26 38.510 SIUE
27 37.722*† Midland
28 37.547 CSU
29 37.466 UMD
30 37.442† DePaul
31 37.197 UNL
32 36.918† UCF
33 36.912† SU
34 35.653 WVU
35 34.666 MC
36 34.656 GSU
37 33.203 BW
38 32.413 BSU
39 31.313 NSU

Movement as of 2019-02-12

* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

Strength of Schedule Spotlight

Strength of Schedule is typically used as a measure to determine what level of competition each team is facing relative to their peers.  The way to read it is fairly simple, the higher the average opponent rating, the tougher your schedule.

Admittedly, I must apologize to the loyal readers.  There was a mistake in my formula from last week’s ratings so you may notice a slight change in some positions even though they did not play since the last update.

Rank Team Avg. Opp. Rating
1 WMU 50.629
2 MSU 47.949
3 CMU 47.224
4 SVSU 46.930
5 JMU 45.648
6 GVSU 45.446
7 UMD 45.141
8 Miami 44.244
9 Towson 44.190
10 BGSU 43.848
11 UVA 43.569
12 Kent 43.502
13 PSU 43.126
14 UWP 43.026
15 VCU 42.840
16 Ohio 42.648
17 OSU 42.622
18 UK 42.516
19 WVU 41.915
20 UNL 41.850
21 BSU 41.576
22 CSU 41.219
23 Akron 40.578
24 MC 39.650
25 GSU 39.193
26 BW 39.054
27 SIUE 39.046
28 NSU 38.045
29 UNG 36.402

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 201120122013201420152016201720182019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor

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