Standings as of 2018-11-06

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2019 Season, we have 19 technical upsets in 87 ranked matches (78.16% success rate) across 14 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.10% based on 325 technical upsets in 1633 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

Since our last standings update, we had five technical upsets across 18 ranked matches and three events.

MSU def CMU 4-3

41.995 def 51.843, exchanging 1.985

In a battle of in-state rivals, Michigan State was able to walk away with their first win of the season, and it was a huge one.  With a whopping 1.985 point exchange (the max is 2), MSU’s technical upset ranks 1st all time, surpassing UMD’s technical upset over JMU back in Nov 2013. It also marks the first time MSU has defeated Central Michigan since 10-23-2016.

UMD def UVA 2-1

36.332 def 40.927, exchanging 1.459

In the only technical upset at Towson’s home tournament, Maryland was able to defeat Virginia in a nail-biting finish.  UMD’s technical upset ranks as the 62nd overall upset all time.

JMU def CMU 4-1

47.999 def 49.858, exchanging 1.186

JMU also picked up a second technical upset victory over another Michigan foe in CMU.  A strong first half performance helped lead the way for this team, and gave JMU 1.186 points, and the 175th ranked technical upset all time.

JMU def SVSU 4-2

46.817 def 48.636, exchanging 1.182

The Dukes of James Madison walked away with a few quality wins at the Grand Valley Gauntlet.  A solid win over Saginaw Valley resulted in a 1.182 gain for JMU, and ranks as the 177th technical upset all time.

UWP def SIUE 4-2

38.497 (+1) def 40.489, exchanging 1.099

Wisconsin-Platteville was able to defeat Southern Illinois – Edwardsville at their home event, and secured a solid exchange in their first win of the season.  It was also SIUE’s first match of the season.  The technical upset ranks 246th all time.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
JMU 46.198 49.185 2.987
UWP 38.497 40.475 1.979
MSU 42.639 43.969 1.331
UMD 36.332 37.466 1.134
Towson 50.272 50.636 0.365
GVSU 55.396 55.634 0.238
VCU 44.718 44.944 0.225
BGSU 43.364 42.679 -0.686
SVSU 48.323 47.454 -0.868
UVA 40.927 39.203 -1.724
SIUE 40.489 38.510 -1.979
CMU 51.674 48.672 -3.002

James Madison took the “loss of faith” criticism to heart and proved that their preseason projection as a championship contender was not a mistake.  A 3-1 weekend in which they beat the #2, #4, and #11 ranked teams entering the weekend is certainly guaranteed to help their growth, and has also shot them up the ranks as seen later on.

With Michigan State’s first win of the season coming against a highly ranked Central Michigan squad in the top ranking technical upset of all time, they were able to earn a net gain of 1.331 from the tournament.  There were certainly some high expectations for this team entering the season, and while those expectations haven’t quite been met yet, this is a step in the right direction.  MSU has played one of the most difficult schedules rating wise.  Their average opponent Gonzalez Rating this season has been 50.135, well above the league average of 40.914.  Because of this, it may be in the team’s best interest to take some of that experience against top level competition and travel further south into the Ohio region to challenge a wider variety of teams.

Grand Valley is in an interesting place at the moment.  Their team has more or less cruised to a 7-0 start to the season, and currently sit at 55.634 points on the season.  That is the highest mark they have achieved by this point in a season since 2014 when they reached 55.825 points at the same time stamp.  Because of their absurdly high separation from most teams, they tend to earn the minimum exchange in most victories.  This year however it is starting to become more difficult for them to accumulate points because of the decrease of ratings of teams in their own region.  While SVSU, CMU, and MSU have been playing a rather limited number of games and beating up on each other, the collective average points of the Michigan schools has dropped as compared to the most recent years in the NCDA.  As a result, it will be interesting to see if this GVSU team (arguably one of the most experienced and talented teams in program history) can break their historical record high of 59.240.

UWP’s two victories over SIUE helped them gain some momentum for the season.  Earning 1.979 points for the weekend moved UWP from 25th to 17th.  While SIUE loses the same amount of points in the exchange, it was a good opportunity for their young team to learn and develop some skills for later games in the season. SIUE has now played enough matches over their history (7) to move on from the provisional rating status.

Over on the East Coast, Towson took care of business against their respective competition, getting three more wins to propel them to a perfect 12-0 on the season.  Like GVSU, Towson is reaching a point where they are only gaining minimum exchanges against their local teams, save JMU.  They are travelling out to Kent State next weekend in what will certainly be a fair test to see if this team’s #2 ranking is fact or fiction.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 55.634 GVSU
↑ from 3 2 50.636 Towson
↑ from 7 3 49.185 JMU
↓ from 2 4 48.672 CMU
5 47.759 Kent
↓ from 4 6 47.454 SVSU
↓ from 6 7 46.466 Miami
8 44.944 VCU
↑ from 11 9 43.969 MSU
10 42.848 Ohio
↓ from 9 11 42.679 BGSU
12 42.483 Akron
13 42.132 UK
14 41.948 OSU
↑ from 16 15 40.679 UNG
↑ from 17 16 40.622 UNT
↑ from 25 17 40.475 UWP
↑ from 19 18 40.260* ZAG
↑ from 20 19 40.230* OS
↑ from 21 20 39.791 PSU
↑ from 22 21 39.767 WKU
↓ from 15 22 39.203 UVA
23 39.185* UWW
24 39.163* NIU
↓ from 18 25 38.510 SIUE
26 38.260 CSU
27 37.722* Midland
↑ from 33 28 37.466 UMD
↓ from 28 29 37.442 DePaul
↓ from 29 30 37.197 UNL
↓ from 30 31 36.918 UCF
↓ from 31 32 36.912 SU
↓ from 32 33 36.492 MC
34 35.699 GSU
35 35.667 WVU
36 34.326 BSU
37 33.203 BW
38 31.313 NSU

Movement as of 2018-10-30

* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† (will be displayed starting at season halfpoint) denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018, 2019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *