Standings as of 2018-10-30

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2019 Season, we have 14 technical upsets in 69 ranked matches (79.71% success rate) across 11 events. Additionally, there have been three JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.19% based on 320 technical upsets in 1615 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

Since our last standings update, we had three technical upsets across ten ranked matches and two events.

UNG def UK 4-2

38.837 (+1) def 43.487, exchanging 1.365

North Georgia pulled off the biggest technical upset over the weekend with their win at home against Kentucky, an outcome which few of our “experts” predicted.  A healthy 1.365 exchange ranks in the 70th percentile of all technical upsets.

GSU def BSU 3-2

34.621 def 35.404, exchanging 1.078

It was both a close match on paper and on the court, but Georgia Southern was able to walk away with their second win of the season against Ball State.  Overall, the upset exchange ranks in the 20th percentile of all technical upsets.

SVSU def CMU 3-2

47.974 (+1) def 52.022, exchanging 1.305

The Cardinals of Saginaw Valley State got a big win at home over in-state rival Central Michigan.  The victory keeps them in the top 4 and probably momentum to go beyond that in the future.  With an exchange of 1.305 points, it ranks in the 65th percentile of all technical upsets.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
UNG 38.837 40.679 1.842
GSU 34.343 35.699 1.356
SVSU 47.974 48.323 0.349
CMU 52.022 51.674 -0.349
BSU 35.142 34.326 -0.816
NSU 32.435 31.313 -1.122
UK 43.392 42.132 -1.260

It was clear UNG was going to be a winner in exchanges this weekend after posting a 3-0 record at home, and they remain undefeated on the season.  GSU also got some good help with two wins against similarly rated teams, though they could have netted a bit more if they defeated NSU in regulation. On the other side of that exchange, NSU lost a bit less by taking the game into Overtime.

SVSU and CMU remain largely unchanged after exchanging wins against each other, but SVSU was able to gain more due to the technical upset.  Fairly typical for a double header when two teams split the wins.

Despite the positive 2-1 record, Kentucky had a significant rating loss after losing to UNG in a 70th percentile technical upset. UK’s predicted wins against lower rated GSU and Northwestern State (LA) neared the minimal exchange values, which nets UK a rating loss over the weekend.

Ratings, sorted.

Rank Rating Team
1 55.396 GVSU
2 51.674 CMU
3 50.272 Towson
4 48.323 SVSU
5 47.759 Kent
6 46.466 Miami
7 46.198 JMU
8 44.718 VCU
9 43.364 BGSU
10 42.848 Ohio
11 42.639 MSU
12 42.483 Akron
13 42.132 UK
14 41.948 OSU
15 40.927 UVA
16 40.679 UNG
17 40.622 UNT
18 40.489* SIUE
19 40.260* ZAG
20 40.230* OS
21 39.791 PSU
22 39.767 WKU
23 39.185* UWW
24 39.163* NIU
25 38.497 UWP
26 38.260 CSU
27 37.722* Midland
28 37.442 DePaul
29 37.197 UNL
30 36.918 UCF
31 36.912 SU
32 36.492 MC
33 36.332 UMD
34 35.699 GSU
35 35.667 WVU
36 34.326 BSU
37 33.203 BW
38 31.313 NSU

Movement as of 2018-10-23

* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† (will be displayed starting at season halfpoint) denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018, 2019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

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