Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2019 Season, we have 14 technical upsets in 69 ranked matches (79.71% success rate) across 11 events. Additionally, there have been three JV matches entered into the Records.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.19% based on 320 technical upsets in 1615 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
Since our last standings update, we had three technical upsets across ten ranked matches and two events.
UNG def UK 4-2
38.837 (+1) def 43.487, exchanging 1.365
North Georgia pulled off the biggest technical upset over the weekend with their win at home against Kentucky, an outcome which few of our “experts” predicted. A healthy 1.365 exchange ranks in the 70th percentile of all technical upsets.
GSU def BSU 3-2
34.621 def 35.404, exchanging 1.078
It was both a close match on paper and on the court, but Georgia Southern was able to walk away with their second win of the season against Ball State. Overall, the upset exchange ranks in the 20th percentile of all technical upsets.
SVSU def CMU 3-2
47.974 (+1) def 52.022, exchanging 1.305
The Cardinals of Saginaw Valley State got a big win at home over in-state rival Central Michigan. The victory keeps them in the top 4 and probably momentum to go beyond that in the future. With an exchange of 1.305 points, it ranks in the 65th percentile of all technical upsets.
Net Rating Changes
It was clear UNG was going to be a winner in exchanges this weekend after posting a 3-0 record at home, and they remain undefeated on the season. GSU also got some good help with two wins against similarly rated teams, though they could have netted a bit more if they defeated NSU in regulation. On the other side of that exchange, NSU lost a bit less by taking the game into Overtime.
SVSU and CMU remain largely unchanged after exchanging wins against each other, but SVSU was able to gain more due to the technical upset. Fairly typical for a double header when two teams split the wins.
Despite the positive 2-1 record, Kentucky had a significant rating loss after losing to UNG in a 70th percentile technical upset. UK’s predicted wins against lower rated GSU and Northwestern State (LA) neared the minimal exchange values, which nets UK a rating loss over the weekend.
Movement as of 2018-10-23
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† (will be displayed starting at season halfpoint) denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc