Standings as of 2018-02-20

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

We had one small but important event this weekend, Mardi Gras Madness hosted by Northwestern State. NSU (sometimes NSULA) hosted our two Georgian teams, GSU and UNG, where five ranked matches were played, including one technical upset.

In the 2018 Season, we have 44 technical upsets in 174 ranked matches (74.71% success rate) across 27 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket. 

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.34% based on 280 technical upsets in 1424 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

We might see the 1500 ranked matches milestone broken prior to Nationals, but at the very least we’ll pass that with Nationals 2018. I’m already drawing up article plans to mark the occasion.

This weekend had one technical upset over five ranked matches. It’s often stated that the Gonzalez System is correct 4 out of 5 matches based on the 80.34% success rate. That makes this weekend spot on.

GSU def NSU 5-1

34.815 def 35.432+1, exchanging 1.162

Georgia Southern’s first school win is a victory against a home team NSU. It ranks 169 of 280 in the 39th percentile, so in terms of the greater body of upsets it might not be the most significant. However, all upsets tend to be higher rating exchanges than the vast majority of rating exchanges. This match ranks 169 of 1424 ranked matches, which makes it in the 88th percentile overall.

We usually don’t list a given match’s placement overall, because all the matches in this Technical Spotlight section are going to be greater than the 80th percentile (equal to the success rate of the system as a whole). It seems to be more useful to evaluate where technical upsets fall among other upsets than where they fall overall. Technical upsets are statistically uncommon, occurring around 1 in 5, but not statistically rare.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes Pre Post Change
UNG 39.165 41.005 1.839
GSU 35.442 36.858 1.416
NSU 36.169 32.914 -3.255

NSULA opens their season with a net loss after posting a 0-4 record. With GSU’s first program wins, they net their first increase since joining the League last year.

UNG posts a hearty boost to climb into a competitive spot of the Georgia region. The Georgia Region has the opportunity to compete well with their East Coast Conference geographical brethren. Being close enough to Virginia and Kentucky teams, but bridging the gap between upcoming teams in Florida and along the Gulf could find UNG a leader of the area in hosting and competitive edge. As more schools join, we might see a Southern Conference established among the Content Team’s jargon.

UNG and GSU’s willingness to travel the distance across the south to NSU will be crucial in the development of the greater South, and the continuance of a long running outlander member team, NSU. A greater willingness to play double headers against the same opponent is also a needed obstacle, as teams might as well take advantage of the trip. All three teams get a nod from me for their participation this weekend!

Ratings, sorted.

Mov. Rank Rating Team
1 55.266 GVSU
2 55.030 CMU
3 48.851 SVSU
4 48.476 Towson
5 48.026 BGSU
6 47.454 Kent
7 47.199 JMU
8 45.134 UK
9 44.227 UWP
10 43.520 MSU
11 42.734 VCU
↑ from 19 12 41.005 UNG
↓ from 12 13 40.797 PSU
↓ from 13 14 40.502 † UNT
↓ from 14 15 40.139 † WKU
↓ from 15 16 40.020 † ZAG
↓ from 16 17 39.980 † OS
↓ from 17 18 39.975 Miami
↓ from 18 19 39.899 Ohio
20 38.979 UNL
21 38.586*† UWW
22 38.557*† NIU
23 38.269*† SIUE
24 38.126 OSU
25 37.803 UMD
26 37.722*† Pitt
27 37.599 DePaul
28 37.028 SU
29 36.865* WVU
↑ from 34 30 36.858 GSU
↓ from 30 31 36.636* Midland
↓ from 31 32 36.279 Akron
33 35.569 UVA
↑ from 35 34 34.996 MC
↑ from 36 35 34.397 BW
↑ from 37 36 34.294 CSU
↓ from 32 37 32.914 NSU

Movement as of 2018-02-13
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

Nationals! All three of this weekend’s competitors: NSU, GSU, and UNG, have now played enough games to qualify for Nationals participation.

Questions? As always, if you have any questions about anything regarding the Gonzalez system, do not hesitate to ask a question. I enjoy discussing the subject, otherwise you would not get these articles as often.

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 20112012201320142015201620172018
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentGonzalez OldPerroneChampLieblich
Spec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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