Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2019 Season, we have 47 technical upsets in 270 ranked matches (82.59% success rate) across 32 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017, 2018, and 2019 bracket.
Congratulations to Towson University on their championship! Nationals 2019 was filled with plenty of twists and turns, tons of exciting games, and plenty of glorified headshots. Special thanks due to Mad City for their efforts livestreaming Sunday’s main court matches, and Greg Kozlick (IG: grandvalleyphoto) for his amazing photography capturing it all.
Let’s took a look at what went down at our last tournament of the season.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.56% based on 353 technical upsets in 1816 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
There were 7 technical upsets at Nationals 2019.
NSU def UC 4-0
31.165 def 36.474, exchanging 3.062
The Demons picked up their first Nationals win since Nationals 2013 at the University of Kentucky. The upset falls in the 89th percentile and ranks 39th all time.
UWP def Kent 3-2
39.765 def 44.488, exchanging 2.945
Platteville picked up a technical upset in their first match of Nationals by defeating Kent State. The upset falls in the 83rd percentile and ranks 61st all time.
UMD def VCU 4-1
43.715 def 47.544, exchanging 2.766
Maryland picked up their first win of the season over East Coast rival VCU to advance to the Quarterfinals. The upset falls in the 74th percentile and ranks 93rd all time.
VCU def CMU 3-2 (OT)
46.163 def 49.969, exchanging 1.381
VCU picked up their first ever program win over CMU. The upset falls in the 73rd percentile and ranks 95th all time. It also ranks as the 19th largest overtime upset all time.
Towson def GVSU 3-2
56.429 def 58.774, exchanging 2.669
In one of the greatest championship matches in NCDA history Towson shocked the college dodgeball world by defeating GVSU. The upset falls in the 68th percentile and ranks 113th all time.
UNG def OSU 3-2
38.010 def 38.843, exchanging 2.167
The Nighthawks won their first ever bracket match at Nationals by defeating OSU in the opening round. The upset falls in the 21st percentile and ranks 278th all time.
UC def GSU 3-2 (OT)
33.392 def 33.818, exchanging 1.043
Cincinnati picked up both their first win in program history and first win at Nationals by defeating GSU in overtime. The upset falls in the 13th percentile and ranks 308th all time.
Net Rating Changes
It’s no surprise that Towson saw a huge jump in their rating after winning it all. The Tigers went 7-0 which included wins over notable opponents such as SVSU, MSU, and GVSU. In-state rivals UMD also saw a huge jump in their rating. The Terps went 5-1 with the lone loss coming to MSU in the Quarterfinals.
SVSU and CMU picked up some big points along the way to help improve their rating as well. SVSU’s wins over Akron and Kent gave them a solid boost, while CMU advanced all the way to the Final Four to improve their standing.
|↑ from 2||1||59.098||Towson|
|↓ from 1||2||56.105||GVSU|
|↑ from 7||6||48.003||SVSU|
|↑ from 8||7||47.459||BGSU|
|↓ from 6||8||46.798||Miami|
|↑ from 19||9||45.310||UMD|
|↓ from 9||10||44.778||VCU|
|↑ from 13||12||42.483||PSU|
|↑ from 21||13||41.699||UWP|
|↓ from 12||14||41.637||Ohio|
|↑ from 16||15||41.634||UK|
|↓ from 10||16||41.097||Kent|
|↓ from 15||17||40.622||UNT|
|↓ from 17||18||40.260||ZAG|
|↓ from 18||19||40.230||OS|
|↓ from 14||20||40.156||UNG|
|↓ from 20||21||39.767||WKU|
|↑ from 24||23||39.185||UWW|
|↑ from 25||24||39.163||NIU|
|↑ from 26||25||38.902||UVA|
|↑ from 27||26||38.510||SIUE|
|↑ from 28||27||37.722||Midland|
|↑ from 29||28||37.197||UNL|
|↑ from 30||29||36.918||UCF|
|↑ from 31||30||36.912||SU|
|↓ from 23||31||36.676||OSU|
|↑ from 34||32||35.296||CSU|
|↑ from 35||33||34.666||MC|
|↑ from 37||34||34.610||WVU|
|↓ from 33||35||33.925||UC|
|↓ from 32||36||33.838||DePaul|
|↑ from 38||37||33.203||BW|
|↓ from 36||38||32.755||GSU|
Strength of Schedule Spotlight
|Rank||Team||Avg. Opp. Rating|
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor