Final Standings – 2018-19 Season

Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday. 

In the 2019 Season, we have 47 technical upsets in 270 ranked matches (82.59% success rate) across 32 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017, 2018, and 2019 bracket. 

Congratulations to Towson University on their championship! Nationals 2019 was filled with plenty of twists and turns, tons of exciting games, and plenty of glorified headshots. Special thanks due to Mad City for their efforts livestreaming Sunday’s main court matches, and Greg Kozlick (IG: grandvalleyphoto) for his amazing photography capturing it all.

Let’s took a look at what went down at our last tournament of the season.

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.56% based on 353 technical upsets in 1816 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

There were 7 technical upsets at Nationals 2019.

NSU def UC 4-0

31.165 def 36.474, exchanging 3.062

The Demons picked up their first Nationals win since Nationals 2013 at the University of Kentucky. The upset falls in the 89th percentile and ranks 39th all time.

UWP def Kent 3-2

39.765 def 44.488, exchanging 2.945

Platteville picked up a technical upset in their first match of Nationals by defeating Kent State. The upset falls in the 83rd percentile and ranks 61st all time.

UMD def VCU 4-1

43.715 def 47.544, exchanging 2.766

Maryland picked up their first win of the season over East Coast rival VCU to advance to the Quarterfinals. The upset falls in the 74th percentile and ranks 93rd all time.

VCU def CMU 3-2 (OT)

46.163 def 49.969, exchanging 1.381

VCU picked up their first ever program win over CMU. The upset falls in the 73rd percentile and ranks 95th all time. It also ranks as the 19th largest overtime upset all time.

Towson def GVSU 3-2

56.429 def 58.774, exchanging 2.669

In one of the greatest championship matches in NCDA history Towson shocked the college dodgeball world by defeating GVSU. The upset falls in the 68th percentile and ranks 113th all time.

UNG def OSU 3-2

38.010 def 38.843, exchanging 2.167

The Nighthawks won their first ever bracket match at Nationals by defeating OSU in the opening round. The upset falls in the 21st percentile and ranks 278th all time.

UC def GSU 3-2 (OT)

33.392 def 33.818, exchanging 1.043

Cincinnati picked up both their first win in program history and first win at Nationals by defeating GSU in overtime. The upset falls in the 13th percentile and ranks 308th all time.

Net Rating Changes

TeamPrePostChange
Towson52.78659.0986.311
UMD39.99945.3105.311
SVSU45.85948.0032.144
CMU48.99251.0522.060
BGSU45.50347.4591.956
UWP39.76541.6991.933
MSU48.85350.4551.602
UK40.53441.6341.100
VCU44.48944.7780.289
NSU31.16531.3130.148
CSU35.67635.296-0.380
UNG40.67940.156-0.522
PSU43.30042.483-0.817
Akron44.09542.953-1.142
Miami48.56446.798-1.766
GSU34.65632.755-1.900
Ohio44.03741.637-2.400
GVSU58.51456.105-2.409
UC36.47433.925-2.549
OSU39.39736.676-2.720
DePaul36.69633.838-2.859
Kent44.48841.097-3.391

It’s no surprise that Towson saw a huge jump in their rating after winning it all. The Tigers went 7-0 which included wins over notable opponents such as SVSU, MSU, and GVSU. In-state rivals UMD also saw a huge jump in their rating. The Terps went 5-1 with the lone loss coming to MSU in the Quarterfinals.

SVSU and CMU picked up some big points along the way to help improve their rating as well. SVSU’s wins over Akron and Kent gave them a solid boost, while CMU advanced all the way to the Final Four to improve their standing.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov.RankRatingTeam
↑ from 2159.098Towson
↓ from 1256.105GVSU
351.052CMU
450.455MSU
548.806JMU
↑ from 7648.003SVSU
↑ from 8747.459BGSU
↓ from 6846.798Miami
↑ from 19945.310UMD
↓ from 91044.778VCU
1142.953Akron
↑ from 131242.483PSU
↑ from 211341.699UWP
↓ from 121441.637Ohio
↑ from 161541.634UK
↓ from 101641.097Kent
↓ from 151740.622UNT
↓ from 171840.260ZAG
↓ from 181940.230OS
↓ from 142040.156UNG
↓ from 202139.767WKU
2239.705WMU
↑ from 242339.185UWW
↑ from 252439.163NIU
↑ from 262538.902UVA
↑ from 272638.510SIUE
↑ from 282737.722Midland
↑ from 292837.197UNL
↑ from 302936.918UCF
↑ from 313036.912SU
↓ from 233136.676OSU
↑ from 343235.296CSU
↑ from 353334.666MC
↑ from 373434.610WVU
↓ from 333533.925UC
↓ from 323633.838DePaul
↑ from 383733.203BW
↓ from 363832.755GSU
3932.413BSU
4031.313NSU

Strength of Schedule Spotlight

RankTeamAvg. Opp. Rating
1WMU51.124
2SVSU48.347
3MSU47.991
4CMU47.036
5GVSU46.699
6JMU46.608
7Towson45.833
8VCU44.298
9BGSU44.279
10UMD43.456
11Ohio43.445
12Kent43.388
13Miami43.331
14PSU43.013
15UK42.240
16UVA42.040
17UWP42.000
18UNL41.850
19BSU41.631
20OSU41.625
21DePaul41.467
22Akron40.856
23WVU40.840
24UC40.836
25CSU40.369
26UNG40.201
27GSU40.116
28MC39.650
29BW39.054
30SIUE39.046
31NSU38.202

See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 201120122013201420152016201720182019
Systems: Gonzalez CurrentSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor

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