Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2018 Season, we have 57 technical upsets in 237 ranked matches (75.95% success rate) across 36 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and Nationals 2018 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.30% based on 293 technical upsets in 1487 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
This weekend had two technical upsets over six ranked matches.
UMD def VCU 3-2 OT
37.032 def 42.896, exchanging 0.793 (1.586 normalized)
The 6th highest technical upset on record, a hefty rating gap of -5.864 points helped boost this overtime into a notable status. In terms of all normalized upset exchanges (meaning OT and Nationals modifiers are removed so they can be compared based the initial Rating Gap), this OT ranks 20th of 293 technical upsets, in the 93rd percentile. Certainly a nice morale booster for Maryland, heading into Nationals.
UVA def UMD 2-1
36.715 def 37.825, exchanging 1.111
It’s somewhat rare that one team is on both sides of a technical upset in the same event, but there is plenty of scenarios in which this might occur. This upset shows as a “rating adjustment” class of technical upset. With a shallow rating gap of 1.110 and an exchange of 1.111 (just move that decimal point over), this ranks as 210 of 293 technical upsets, in the 93rd percentile.
Net Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 36.725 | 37.254 | 0.529 |
| Towson | 48.353 | 48.767 | 0.414 |
| UMD | 37.032 | 36.704 | -0.328 |
| VCU | 43.289 | 42.675 | -0.614 |
These four teams close out the regular season, but still post some significant changes for three games. Netting half a point in positive or negative is the potential tipping point for crowded sections of the ratings, especially for UMD and UVA.
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 1 | 56.493 | CMU |
| — | 2 | 55.014 | GVSU |
| — | 3 | 49.008 | SVSU |
| ↑ from 5 | 4 | 48.767 | Towson |
| ↓ from 4 | 5 | 48.641 | Kent |
| — | 6 | 48.209 | JMU |
| — | 7 | 47.729 | BGSU |
| — | 8 | 44.559 | UK |
| — | 9 | 44.324 | UWP |
| — | 10 | 44.307 | MSU |
| — | 11 | 42.675 | VCU |
| — | 12 | 42.598 | UNG |
| — | 13 | 42.308 | Miami |
| — | 14 | 41.747 | Ohio |
| — | 15 | 41.686 | PSU |
| — | 16 | 40.502 † | UNT |
| — | 17 | 40.324* | SIUE |
| — | 18 | 40.020*† | ZAG |
| — | 19 | 39.980*† | OS |
| — | 20 | 39.362 | WKU |
| — | 21 | 38.662 | GSU |
| — | 22 | 38.586*† | UWW |
| — | 23 | 38.557*† | NIU |
| — | 24 | 38.453 | OSU |
| — | 25 | 38.127 | DePaul |
| — | 26 | 37.722*† | Pitt |
| ↑ from 29 | 27 | 37.254 | UVA |
| ↓ from 27 | 28 | 37.090 | UNL |
| ↓ from 28 | 29 | 36.704 | UMD |
| — | 30 | 36.636* | Midland |
| — | 31 | 36.603* | UCF |
| — | 32 | 36.336 | Akron |
| — | 33 | 35.805 | BSU |
| — | 34 | 35.556 | SU |
| — | 35 | 35.044* | WVU |
| — | 36 | 34.996 | MC |
| — | 37 | 34.159 | CSU |
| — | 38 | 32.914 | NSU |
| — | 39 | 32.595 | BW |
Movement as of 2018-04-03
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
Pre Nationals 2018 Ratings
| Participating Team | Rating |
| CMU | 56.529 |
| GVSU | 54.638 |
| SVSU | 49.008 |
| Towson | 48.767 |
| Kent | 48.641 |
| JMU | 48.209 |
| BGSU | 47.729 |
| UK | 44.559 |
| UWP | 44.324 |
| MSU | 44.307 |
| VCU | 42.675+1 |
| UNG | 42.598 |
| Miami | 42.308 |
| PSU | 41.686 |
| GSU | 38.662 |
| OSU | 38.453 |
| DePaul | 38.127 |
| UVA | 37.254 |
| UNL | 37.090 |
| UMD | 36.704 |
| UCF | 36.603 |
| Akron | 36.336 |
| CSU | 34.159 |
| NSU | 32.914 |
As Nationals host, VCU will receive the +1 home court advantage that all event hosts receive. The Rating that will be used for their seeding in the Tournament Bracket will also include the +1 HCA.
Nationals 2018 Results will be live entered into the Records tab of our our schedule g-sheet as the games finish. While I may be sharing some exchange updates and upset stats on twitter throughout the day, we’ll post the final rating exchanges of first day as a website post.
Nationals 2018 Exchanges Preview
10:15 Queue 1
UWP (44.324) v VCU (43.675) for 1.870 [or 2.130 as a #243/293 upset]
SVSU (49.008) v Kent (48.641) for 1.926 [or 2.074 as a #260/293 upset]
UCF (36.603) v NSU (32.914) for 1.262 [or 2.738 as a #86/293 upset]
GSU (38.662) v CSU (34.159) for 1.099 [or 2.901 as a #59/293 upset]
UK (44.559) v DePaul (38.127) for 0.714 [or 3.286 as a #17/293 upset]
UNG (42.598) v UVA (37.254) for 0.931 [or 3.069 as a #31/293 upset]
11:25 Queue 2
CMU (56.529) v JMU (48.209) for 0.336 [or 3.664 as a #6/293 upset]
UMD (36.704) v Akron (36.336) for 1.926 [or 2.074 as a #260/293 upset]
GVSU (54.638) v OSU (38.453) for 0.020 [or 4.000 as a #1/293 upset]
BGSU (47.729) v PSU (41.686) for 0.791 [or 3.209 as a #18/293 upset]
Miami (42.308) v UNL (37.090) for 0.957 [or 3.043 as a #37/293 upset]
Towson (48.767) v MSU (44.307) for 1.108 [or 2.892 as a #60/293 upset]
12:40 Queue 3
UK (45.272) v Miami (43.264) for 1.598 [or 2.402 as a #150/293 upset]
SVSU (50.935) v VCU (41.805) for 0.174 [or 3.826 as a #3/293 upset]
Kent (46.714) v UCF (37.865) for 0.230 [or 3.770 as a #4/293 upset]
UMD (38.630) v NSU (31.652) for 0.604 [or 3.396 as a #13/293 upset]
CMU (56.865) v CSU (33.060) for 0.020 [or 4.000 as a #1/293 upset]
GSU (39.761) v UVA (36.323) for 1.312 [or 2.688 as a #93/293 upset]
1:50 Queue 4
GVSU (54.658) v Towson (49.875) for 1.043 [or 2.957 as a #53/293 upset]
BGSU (48.521) v JMU (47.873) for 1.870 [or 2.130 as a #243/293 upset]
UNG (43.529) v Akron (34.410) for 0.176 [or 3.824 as a #3/293 upset]
UWP (46.195) v OSU (38.453) for 0.452 [or 3.548 as a #7/293 upset]
UCF (37.635) v DePaul (37.413) for 1.956 [or 2.044 as a #269/293 upset]
Kent (46.944) v UK (46.871) for 1.985 [or 2.015 as a #288/293 upset]
3:05 Queue 5
MSU (43.199) v PSU (40.895) for 1.539 [or 2.461 as a #135/293 upset]
OSU (38.001) v UNL (37.090) for 1.818 [or 2.182 as a #228/293 upset]
GVSU (55.701) v Akron (34.234) for 0.020 [or 4.000 as a #1/293 upset]
CSU (33.040) v NSU (31.047) for 1.602 [or 2.398 as a #151/293 upset]
SVSU (51.109) v UVA (35.011) for 0.020 [or 4.000 as a #1/293 upset]
CMU (56.529) v GSU (41.074) for 0.020 [or 4.000 as a #1/293 upset]
4:15 Queue 6
Miami (41.666) v PSU (39.356) for 1.538 [or 2.462 as a #135/293 upset]
VCU (41.631) v DePaul (35.458) for 0.765 [or 3.235 as a #17/293 upset]
Towson (49.875) v UWP (46.646) for 1.354 [or 2.646 as a #99/293 upset]
JMU (46.002) v UNG (43.353) for 1.470 [or 2.530 as a #119/293 upset]
MSU (44.738) v UNL (35.272) for 0.107 [or 3.893 as a #2/293 upset]
BGSU (50.391) v UMD (39.235) for 0.020 [or 4.000 as a #1/293 upset]
Apologies, I really could have formatted that better, but we are a little strapped for time heading into the Nationals weekend. Enjoy my concatenation formulas in the meantime.
Nationals 2018 Bracket Preview
And what if, in the vastly unlikely event that all matches play out as predicted? What would the seeds and bracket look like?
What if all matches played out as predicted, all the higher ratings won their matchups, and there were no upsets or overtimes? This is that bracket.
This is highly unlikely. Probability wise, we are slated for about three Overtimes, as 8.11% of all Nationals matches (24/296) have been overtimes. This is slightly higher than the OT percentage overall, 117 overtimes in 1487 ranked matches (7.87%). The 40 minute halves may amplify that probability further, but that is an untested hypothesis.
Further complicating the issue is the this Nationals only has six minimum exchange matches of the 36 Saturday games. There currently hasn’t been a maximum value upset exchange, so these are essentially the few games that are the least probable upsets. That we can say with any confidence.
Anything can happen, but if anything happens, the system is sure to adjust accordingly. Happy Nationals! See you this weekend.
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Systems: Gonzalez Current, Gonzalez Old, Perrone, Champ, LieblichSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
