Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
We had one small but important event this weekend, Mardi Gras Madness hosted by Northwestern State. NSU (sometimes NSULA) hosted our two Georgian teams, GSU and UNG, where five ranked matches were played, including one technical upset.
In the 2018 Season, we have 44 technical upsets in 174 ranked matches (74.71% success rate) across 27 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.34% based on 280 technical upsets in 1424 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
We might see the 1500 ranked matches milestone broken prior to Nationals, but at the very least we’ll pass that with Nationals 2018. I’m already drawing up article plans to mark the occasion.
This weekend had one technical upset over five ranked matches. It’s often stated that the Gonzalez System is correct 4 out of 5 matches based on the 80.34% success rate. That makes this weekend spot on.
GSU def NSU 5-1
34.815 def 35.432+1, exchanging 1.162
Georgia Southern’s first school win is a victory against a home team NSU. It ranks 169 of 280 in the 39th percentile, so in terms of the greater body of upsets it might not be the most significant. However, all upsets tend to be higher rating exchanges than the vast majority of rating exchanges. This match ranks 169 of 1424 ranked matches, which makes it in the 88th percentile overall.
We usually don’t list a given match’s placement overall, because all the matches in this Technical Spotlight section are going to be greater than the 80th percentile (equal to the success rate of the system as a whole). It seems to be more useful to evaluate where technical upsets fall among other upsets than where they fall overall. Technical upsets are statistically uncommon, occurring around 1 in 5, but not statistically rare.
Net Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNG | 39.165 | 41.005 | 1.839 |
| GSU | 35.442 | 36.858 | 1.416 |
| NSU | 36.169 | 32.914 | -3.255 |
NSULA opens their season with a net loss after posting a 0-4 record. With GSU’s first program wins, they net their first increase since joining the League last year.
UNG posts a hearty boost to climb into a competitive spot of the Georgia region. The Georgia Region has the opportunity to compete well with their East Coast Conference geographical brethren. Being close enough to Virginia and Kentucky teams, but bridging the gap between upcoming teams in Florida and along the Gulf could find UNG a leader of the area in hosting and competitive edge. As more schools join, we might see a Southern Conference established among the Content Team’s jargon.
UNG and GSU’s willingness to travel the distance across the south to NSU will be crucial in the development of the greater South, and the continuance of a long running outlander member team, NSU. A greater willingness to play double headers against the same opponent is also a needed obstacle, as teams might as well take advantage of the trip. All three teams get a nod from me for their participation this weekend!
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 1 | 55.266 | GVSU |
| — | 2 | 55.030 | CMU |
| — | 3 | 48.851 | SVSU |
| — | 4 | 48.476 | Towson |
| — | 5 | 48.026 | BGSU |
| — | 6 | 47.454 | Kent |
| — | 7 | 47.199 | JMU |
| — | 8 | 45.134 | UK |
| — | 9 | 44.227 | UWP |
| — | 10 | 43.520 | MSU |
| — | 11 | 42.734 | VCU |
| ↑ from 19 | 12 | 41.005 | UNG |
| ↓ from 12 | 13 | 40.797 | PSU |
| ↓ from 13 | 14 | 40.502 † | UNT |
| ↓ from 14 | 15 | 40.139 † | WKU |
| ↓ from 15 | 16 | 40.020 † | ZAG |
| ↓ from 16 | 17 | 39.980 † | OS |
| ↓ from 17 | 18 | 39.975 | Miami |
| ↓ from 18 | 19 | 39.899 | Ohio |
| — | 20 | 38.979 | UNL |
| — | 21 | 38.586*† | UWW |
| — | 22 | 38.557*† | NIU |
| — | 23 | 38.269*† | SIUE |
| — | 24 | 38.126 | OSU |
| — | 25 | 37.803 | UMD |
| — | 26 | 37.722*† | Pitt |
| — | 27 | 37.599 | DePaul |
| — | 28 | 37.028 | SU |
| — | 29 | 36.865* | WVU |
| ↑ from 34 | 30 | 36.858 | GSU |
| ↓ from 30 | 31 | 36.636* | Midland |
| ↓ from 31 | 32 | 36.279 | Akron |
| — | 33 | 35.569 | UVA |
| ↑ from 35 | 34 | 34.996 | MC |
| ↑ from 36 | 35 | 34.397 | BW |
| ↑ from 37 | 36 | 34.294 | CSU |
| ↓ from 32 | 37 | 32.914 | NSU |
Movement as of 2018-02-13
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
Nationals! All three of this weekend’s competitors: NSU, GSU, and UNG, have now played enough games to qualify for Nationals participation.
Questions? As always, if you have any questions about anything regarding the Gonzalez system, do not hesitate to ask a question. I enjoy discussing the subject, otherwise you would not get these articles as often.
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Systems: Gonzalez Current, Gonzalez Old, Perrone, Champ, LieblichSpec Document: Gonzalez System Spec Doc
