Gonzalez Preview for BW Invite

A very similar event to the Ohio Dodgeball Cup on the surface, but let’s scratch a bit deeper. There’s plenty of tests on the Gonzalez system here. First, we can take a look at how a #2 team performs against three teams that average a gap of 17 under CMU. Among 963 games there is a strong predictability that these matches won’t be upsets, all of those would fall in the top three largest exchanges.

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
10:15 BW BGSU 39.151 38.316 0.916 1.084
10:15 Akron Ohio 39.957 32.108 0.215 1.785
11:30 Akron BW 40.172 40.067 0.990 1.010
11:30 CMU BGSU 56.709 37.399 0.010 2.000
1:30 CMU BW 56.719 39.078 0.010 2.000
1:30 BGSU Ohio 37.389 31.893 0.450 1.550
2:45 CMU Akron 56.729 41.162 0.010 2.000
2:45 BW Ohio 39.068 31.443 0.237 1.763

Early in the day we have two games that could go either way, BW/BG and Akron/BW. BW’s home advantage gives them three points on their rating which helps place them on a competitive equality to BGSU and Akron. At the same time, the two opponents can continue to climb and solidify their own ratings in a extremely tight sector of the Gonzalez standings. Any wins or loses by teams with a 38-40 rating can lead to big jumps in their standing slot.

This leaves us with three matches of extreme predictability, but the remainder do rely on outcomes of the first match. I’m hesitant to stand by these because of how small the rating gap. Yet at the same time I’m excited to receive the results. For the same reason, I’ll leave off the predicted upsets ranked for this week. Just like the ODC, we’ll be able to use this event’s results to evaluate the Gonzalez system. We can determine how accurate our system can be when looking at similarly rated teams playing each other, something that is actually a much tinier percentage of our history than it should be.

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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