2016 MDC Gonzalez Exchanges

The oldest collegiate dodgeball event is the Michigan Dodgeball Cup. This MDC will feature #1, 2, 4, 5 in the Gonzalez Standings.

Let’s start by comparing averages.

League Rating Average: 42.091 and a spread of 25.848
MDC Rating Average: 55.526 and a spread of 9.402
GVSU/CMU/MSU Rating Average: 57.690 and a spread of 1.272.

That top three is a huge fight of the top percentile; all Gonzalez ratings are relatively close and this triumvirate is fighting for 1/2/3 in the overall NCDA Ranking. The “predicted exchanges” do not have a high degree of predictability here, because there certainly is a difference between a technical upset and a statistically influential upset. GV/CMU, GV/MSU, CMU/MSU could go either way with the ratings being so close. There is a lot to gain and lot to lose. but events are rarely this influential.

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
10:30 GVSU CMU 58.435 57.472 0.904 1.096
11:45 MSU SVSU 57.163 49.032 0.187 1.813
1:30 GVSU MSU 59.338 57.350 0.801 1.199
2:45 CMU SVSU 56.569 48.845 0.228 1.772
4:30 CMU MSU 56.796 56.549 0.975 1.025
5:45 GVSU SVSU 60.140 48.618 0.010 2.000

MSU has the most to gain or lose from this event. League-wise, MSU is favorably setup geographically. Their nearby opponents will do the most for their ranking across any of the four systems. Michigan competitors are a boost to strength of schedule, each team has a high Gonzalez ranking, and each a broadly respectable win percentage. While it’s difficult to predict because of the parity in the MDC, MSU is essentially just one game back from a 1st place NCDA Ranking in the Algorithm. If MSU manages to come out over CMU in the Michigan Dodgeball Cup, it is likely MSU will narrowly take first.

Personally I also wouldn’t count SVSU out; Feb 27th will be one of the last remaining opportunities for them to gain important wins.  The few statistically important opponents for SVSU include the teams of Michigan plus JMU, OSU, and Towson. Saginaw has the most to gain in upsetting their three scheduled competitors. Even playing those scheduled games to Overtime will help retain their ranking. For example, an overtime exchange is halved. If SV pushes MSU to overtime but loses, SV will lose .094 instead of the full .187 from their rating.

So while keeping in mind the close nature of the event and that any upsets will slightly affect later games, here’s a rough list of where each game would place if it were an upset exchange. As of 2016-02-17, 855 ranked matches have been played in history with 136 technical upsets according to Gonzalez.

Low High Exchange Rank / 136
CMU GVSU 1.096 108
SVSU MSU 1.813 9
MSU GVSU 1.199 87
SVSU CMU 1.772 12
MSU CMU 1.025 129
SVSU GVSU 2.152 1

What do you think?

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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