Standings are aimed to be released by the end of every Tuesday.
In the 2019 Season, we have 26 technical upsets in 130 ranked matches (80.00% success rate) across 20 events. Additionally, there have been four JV matches entered into the Records.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 and 2018 bracket.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.17% based on 332 technical upsets in 1674 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.
Since our last standings update, there were no technical upsets.
Net Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVSU | 56.192 | 56.835 | 0.643 |
| SVSU | 48.766 | 48.122 | -0.643 |
HF: In the Battle of the Valleys doubleheader, GVSU was able to walk away with both wins over in-state rivals SVSU. The Lakers got a decent chunk of points to add to their lead on the rest of the league. While SVSU lost what GVSU gained, the Cardinals are still in a good position with a little over a one point gap between them and fifth place CMU.
ZM: Battle of the Valleys has a storied history going all the way back to being SV’s induction match in the NCDA. For a good portion of its history, BotV was a November event and most included a Battle of the JV Valleys. This past weekend marks the first time it was played in the second half of the season. For a third season running, it also continues its trend as a double header. Multi-team events like BEAST have become more common, but Battle of the Valleys remains one of the NCDA’s longest running “Team v Team” events that formed the foundation of the NCDA season in early years.
GVSU holds most of the BotV titles and have been favored for every instance where the Gonzalez system applies (which started accurate records Sept 2010). GVSU’s largest net rating gain was 0.778 in November 2011, the season SVSU would be the National Champion. The next highest was November 2017, where GV netted .750 over a doubleheader.
SVSU was the lower rated team throughout, but has a few event titles over the years. The largest of these would be the 2016 BotV, the first largest technical upset in OT and the 3rd largest upset in the Gonzalez system. SVSU’s technical upset in November 2012 currently ranks 193rd of 332, and was the shallowest rating gap between the two teams over the event history.
History of the Battle of the Valleys
2019-01-19 GVSU def SVSU 3-2 and 4-1 netting .643
2017-11-19 GVSU def SVSU 4-0 and 4-1 netting .750
2016-10-29 SVSU def GVSU 3-2 OT for .963 / GVSU def SVSU 2-1 for .267 (NET: SV +.696 / GV -.696)
2015-10-11 GVSU def SVSU 3-1 for .576 / SV-JV def GV-JV 4-0
2014-11-09 GVSU def SVSU 3-1 for .515 / GV-JV def SV-JV 3-1
2013-11-03 GVSU def SVSU 2-1 for .440 / SV-JV def GV-JV 2-1
2012-11-04 SVSU def GVSU 2-1 for 1.167 / GV-JV def SV-JV 3-1
2011-11-05 GVSU def SVSU 2-1 for .778
2010-11-20 SVSU def GVSU 3-0 for .825*
2009-11-08 GVSU def SVSU 3-2
2008-09-12 GVSU def SVSU 5-0 / GV-JV def SV-JV 5-1
2007-09-22 GVSU def SVSU 8-0 (induction) GV-JV def SV-JV 8-1
* For the 2011 Season’s BotV on 2010-11-20, both teams had provisional ratings being so early in the Gonzalez system. The line is included here for completeness.
Additionally! On 2016-03-20, SVSU hosted the Ultimate Battle of the Valleys where Alumni played against each other. GVSU def SVSU 3-1 for .412 in the one ranked match.
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Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 1 | 56.835 | GVSU |
| — | 2 | 51.403 | Towson |
| — | 3 | 49.696 | JMU |
| — | 4 | 48.122 | SVSU |
| — | 5 | 47.086 | CMU |
| — | 6 | 46.797 | Miami |
| — | 7 | 46.648 | MSU |
| — | 8 | 45.222 | Kent |
| — | 9 | 45.219 | BGSU |
| — | 10 | 44.944 | VCU |
| — | 11 | 44.232 | Akron |
| — | 12 | 43.565 | Ohio |
| — | 13 | 41.071 | OSU |
| — | 14 | 40.679 | UNG |
| — | 15 | 40.622† | UNT |
| — | 16 | 40.260*† | ZAG |
| — | 17 | 40.230*† | OS |
| — | 18 | 40.140 | UK |
| — | 19 | 39.791 | PSU |
| — | 20 | 39.767† | WKU |
| — | 21 | 39.203 | UVA |
| — | 22 | 39.185*† | UWW |
| — | 23 | 39.163*† | NIU |
| — | 24 | 38.832 | UWP |
| — | 25 | 38.510† | SIUE |
| — | 26 | 38.191 | CSU |
| — | 27 | 37.722*† | Midland |
| — | 28 | 37.466 | UMD |
| — | 29 | 37.442† | DePaul |
| — | 30 | 37.197 | UNL |
| — | 31 | 36.918† | UCF |
| — | 32 | 36.912† | SU |
| — | 33 | 36.792 | WVU |
| — | 34 | 34.666 | MC |
| — | 35 | 34.656 | GSU |
| — | 36 | 33.613 | BSU |
| — | 37 | 33.203 | BW |
| — | 38 | 31.313 | NSU |
Movement as of 2018-12-04
* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.
Strength of Schedule Spotlight
Strength of Schedule is typically used as a measure to determine what level of competition each team is facing relative to their peers. The way to read it is fairly simple, the higher the average opponent rating, the tougher your schedule.
| Rank | Team | Avg. Opp. Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSU | 48.604 |
| 2 | SVSU | 48.220 |
| 3 | JMU | 47.594 |
| 4 | CMU | 46.695 |
| 5 | GVSU | 45.279 |
| 6 | UMD | 45.141 |
| 7 | Kent | 44.219 |
| 8 | PSU | 44.011 |
| 9 | Miami | 44.010 |
| 10 | BGSU | 44.007 |
| 11 | UVA | 43.569 |
| 12 | Towson | 43.287 |
| 13 | UK | 43.126 |
| 14 | VCU | 42.755 |
| 15 | UWP | 42.644 |
| 16 | OSU | 42.277 |
| 17 | Ohio | 41.980 |
| 18 | UNL | 41.850 |
| 19 | BSU | 40.952 |
| 20 | Akron | 39.819 |
| 21 | MC | 39.650 |
| 22 | CSU | 39.464 |
| 23 | GSU | 39.193 |
| 24 | WVU | 39.147 |
| 25 | BW | 39.054 |
| 26 | SIUE | 39.046 |
| 27 | NSU | 38.045 |
| 28 | UNG | 36.402 |
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
Systems: Gonzalez Current
Prediction Calculation: Gonzalez Predictor