In the 2022 Season, we have 26 technical upsets in 90 ranked matches (71.11% success rate) across 15 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 79.91% based on 424 technical upsets in 2,110 ranked matches played since 09-25-2010. There was one technical upset since our last standings update.
MSU def GVSU 4-3 (OT)
44.892 (+1) def 47.117, exchanging 0.561
MSU defeated GVSU at the Michigan Dodgeball Cup. Overall, the technical upset ranks 292nd all time and falls in the 31st percentile.
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
| — | 1 | 47.677 | UC |
| — | 2 | 46.556 | GVSU |
| — | 3 | 45.453 | MSU |
| — | 4 | 44.255 | Towson |
| — | 5 | 43.775 | OSU |
| — | 6 | 43.588 | JMU |
| — | 7 | 43.586 | PSU |
| — | 8 | 43.547 | BGSU |
| — | 9 | 43.094 | Akron |
| — | 10 | 42.571 | UNL |
| — | 11 | 41.991 | CMU |
| — | 12 | 41.129 | Ohio |
| — | 13 | 40.655 | CSU |
| — | 14 | 40.392 | ZAG |
| — | 15 | 40.386 | OS |
| — | 16 | 40.344 | UNG |
| — | 17 | 39.981 | UK |
| — | 18 | 39.612 | UVA |
| — | 19 | 39.571 | WVU |
| ↑ from 24 | 20 | 39.051 | SVSU |
| ↓ from 20 | 21 | 38.995 | SIUE |
| ↓ from 21 | 22 | 38.901 | MC |
| ↓ from 22 | 23 | 38.713 | NSU |
| ↓ from 23 | 24 | 38.703 | DePaul |
| — | 25 | 38.526 | GSU |
| — | 26 | 37.931 | VCU |
| ↑ from 28 | 27 | 37.317 | Miami |
| ↑ from 29 | 28 | 37.245 | UWP |
| ↑ from 30 | 29 | 37.205 | BSU |
| ↑ from 31 | 30 | 36.904 | UMD |
| ↓ from 27 | 31 | 36.624 | WMU |
| — | 32 | 36.615 | Kent |
| — | 33 | 33.000 | MSU-B |
| — | 34 | 33.000 | GVSU-B |
| — | 35 | 33.000 | CMU-B |
| — | 36 | 33.000 | Ohio-B |
| — | 37 | 32.393 | OSU-B |
Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
| MSU | 44.364 | 45.453 | 1.089 |
| SVSU | 38.546 | 39.051 | 0.505 |
| GVSU | 46.895 | 46.556 | -0.339 |
| WMU | 37.879 | 36.624 | -1.255 |
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probability Calculator