Previewing the Buckeye Invite

We have two big tournaments on Saturday, and two more on Sunday. Today we’ll preview the Buckeye Invite happening this Sunday in Columbus. We’ll use the same 75% carry over we used in the Shootout preview earlier this week. 

Time High Seed Low Seed Rating Rating Predicted Exchange Exchange if Upset
10:30 OSU BGSU 50.691 38.042 0.010 2.000
10:30 MSU UK 47.998 43.416 0.542 1.458
12:00 OSU Kent 47.691 44.064 0.637 1.363
12:00 MSU BGSU 48.540 38.032 0.010 2.000
2:00 MSU OSU 48.550 48.328 0.978 1.022
2:00 Kent UK 43.427 42.874 0.945 1.055
3:30 OSU UK 47.350 41.929 0.458 1.542
3:30 Kent BGSU 44.371 38.022 0.365 1.635

Columbus kicks in its hospitality reputation early this season by hosting in a centralized location and drawing in teams from bordering states. These five competitors are classics in the NCDA and in many ways this is a classic round robin we’ve seen many times before. Looking at the predicted exchanges, we have a good mix of matches between equal competitors. We still have a handful that fall below the minimum defined exchange, 0.010 for any match between ratings that are about 10 point differential.

The closest match of the day may be MSU facing an OSU home team, in the third round. A loss for either team earlier in the day will cause this exchange to be slightly less important, but as the system predicts this will be one of the more statistically important games played in regular season collegiate dodgeball history. Just 18 matches in some 968 games have a bigger swing in ratings.

Not to leave Kent/UK out of the mix, there’s some 48 historical games that are statistically more relevant in the regular season. Kent gets the nod as slight favorite here, but UK is historically proficient at knocking over similar rated teams in technical upsets. This round will be valuable for all these four competitors. Good luck to BGSU on officiating.

BGSU has the most to gain in their matches of the day. We miss out on a close matchup against Kentucky, but a Kent opponent is not out of reach for a BGSU squad in their home state. Knocking off a traveling MSU team is a tad more predictable than knocking out OSU on their home court. That’ll make for a top five greatest statistical upset in history.

Author: Zigmister

DePaul Dodgeball #68 & NCDA Director of Officiating

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