Maryland Dodgeball Classic will be held this Sunday, April 3rd. It seems they share a similar acronym with the Michigan Dodgeball Cup. Heh. MDDC?
- Towson v UMD (h)
- UMD (h) v VCU
- Towson v VCU
We still have a number of games that will be played on the Saturday before at OSU’s event. These team’s exchanges won’t change because they won’t play any of the competitors at OSU, but “total” numbers may vary ever so slightly because there will be more total ranked games and possibly more upsets.
At the moment, the pure probability of an upset among any match is 18.42% using the Gonzalez system, but using the Gonzalez rating exchange formula allows us to be more accurate in our predictions. Calculating two standard deviations of our upset exchanges results in a rating needing to be over 1.900 to be in the 95th percentile.
As of the time of this post the records point that two standard deviations (2σ) is 0.557, where the mean of the entire population of technical upsets (μ) is 1.344, and the standard deviation of the total population (σ) is 0.278. About 68% (one standard deviation) of all technical upsets fall within exchanges being 1.065 and 1.622.
|Time||High Seed||Low Seed||Rating||Rating||Predicted Exchange||Exchange if Upset|
Towson v UMD (h)
UMD receives a boost of 3 to their initial rating of 38.226 to bring them to 41.226, making this predicted exchange something not out of reach for an upset by UMD. This would rank 33 out of 168 technical upsets. In the top 20% of upset exchanges, but only in the top 3% of total ranked games. Because of the noted standard deviation math data above, an upset would be more likely to happen here (although not as likely as the next match):
UMD (h) v VCU
With the two most recent matchups between VCU and UMD on neutral courts have resulted in victory for VCU, this will be held on Maryland’s home court, the Armory. UMD remains the statistically, lightly predicted winner, but the ratings are close and upsets in this range are more likely. It’s an even match. Maryland’s home advantage boost will allow VCU to take more on the exchange if they make this the third upset of the UMD/VCU matchup this 2016 season. The two teams are currently tied in their “series” at 2-2.
Pumpkinfest II: UMD def VCU 4-1
UMD Invite: UMD (h) def VCU 2-1
BEAST V: VCU def UMD 2-1
MVEC: VCU def UMD 2-1
Maryland Dodgeball Classic: ? def ? (!!! – can you tell I’m excited for data?)
Towson v VCU
To cap out the day, Towson will face VCU. The outcome is statistically predictable in favor of Towson, but VCU will have a lot of points to grab in an Upset Exchange. While it depends on the performance of the two prior matches and those at OSU, a VCU def Towson would rank 5th in upset exchanges. VCU could jump from #18 to #13 in the Gonzalez standings from this upset alone. Winning out on the day will give VCU an opportunity to advance to #11. They are in the critical 39-37 ratings, a highly populated sector of the Gonzalez Standings.
Admittedly, this doesn’t take into account the games played at OSU. But as always, I excitedly await the event results. Tweet your games people!