King of the Mountain Gonzalez Exchanges.
|Time||High Seed||Low Seed||Rating||Rating||Predicted Exchange||Exchange if Upset|
With the two highest ratings in the Gonzalez system playing in this event, it comes to no surprise that we have a number of predicted exchanges at the minimum value. Pretty much anyone playing GVSU is the minimum value, and all matches scheduled for a CMU home team are the minimum exchange.
The system doesn’t predict many even matches against the schedule; the average rating gap is a hefty 14.099. Exchanges start counting greater than the minimum when team ratings are within 10 of each other. It’s a shame we won’t see CMU Home v GVSU Away, or UWP v Kent. Those exchanges would be in the .700 range. A small caveat about that number: when both team ratings are equal, the exchange is 1. Then say one team had home court advantage; the exchange would be .700 in favor of the home team.
The closest predicted is the last match of the day, Kent/Akron. That’s a rating gap is 2.176 and predicted exchange of .782 in favor of Kent.
Any upsets, and to a lesser extent overtimes, will award the underdog with major additions to their rating and I’m looking forward to the day. As always, let me know if you have any questions!