King of the Mountain Gonzalez Exchanges.
| Time | High Seed | Low Seed | Rating | Rating | Predicted Exchange | Exchange if Upset | |
| 12:00 | CMU | Akron | 60.432 | 38.661 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 21.772 |
| 12:00 | SVSU | UWP | 48.596 | 43.194 | 0.460 | 1.540 | 5.402 |
| 12:00 | GVSU | Kent | 58.381 | 40.584 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 17.798 |
| 1:15 | CMU | Kent | 60.442 | 40.574 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 19.869 |
| 1:15 | UWP | Ohio | 42.734 | 33.024 | 0.029 | 1.971 | 9.710 |
| 1:15 | SVSU | Akron | 49.056 | 38.651 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 10.405 |
| 3:00 | CMU | UWP | 60.452 | 42.763 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 17.689 |
| 3:00 | Kent | Ohio | 40.564 | 32.995 | 0.243 | 1.757 | 7.569 |
| 3:00 | GVSU | Akron | 58.391 | 38.641 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 19.751 |
| 4:15 | CMU | Ohio | 60.462 | 32.752 | 0.010 | 2.000 | 27.711 |
| 4:15 | GVSU | SVSU | 58.401 | 49.066 | 0.066 | 1.934 | 9.336 |
| 4:15 | Kent | Akron | 40.807 | 38.631 | 0.782 | 1.218 | 2.176 |
With the two highest ratings in the Gonzalez system playing in this event, it comes to no surprise that we have a number of predicted exchanges at the minimum value. Pretty much anyone playing GVSU is the minimum value, and all matches scheduled for a CMU home team are the minimum exchange.
The system doesn’t predict many even matches against the schedule; the average rating gap is a hefty 14.099. Exchanges start counting greater than the minimum when team ratings are within 10 of each other. It’s a shame we won’t see CMU Home v GVSU Away, or UWP v Kent. Those exchanges would be in the .700 range. A small caveat about that number: when both team ratings are equal, the exchange is 1. Then say one team had home court advantage; the exchange would be .700 in favor of the home team.
The closest predicted is the last match of the day, Kent/Akron. That’s a rating gap is 2.176 and predicted exchange of .782 in favor of Kent.
Any upsets, and to a lesser extent overtimes, will award the underdog with major additions to their rating and I’m looking forward to the day. As always, let me know if you have any questions!
I am excited for Akron v Ohio. Excited to see that turn out since it’s not out of reach for Ohio.