In the 2022 Season, we have 29 technical upsets in 112 ranked matches (74.11% success rate) across 17 events.
The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for each Nationals bracket since 2017.
Technical Upset Spotlight
A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 79.91% based on 427 technical upsets in 2,132 ranked matches played since 09-25-2010. There were two technical upsets since our last standings update.
SVSU def Akron 2-0
38.316 def 43.591 (+1), exchanging 1.627
SVSU defeated Akron at the WAR V. Overall, the technical upset ranks 20th all time and falls in the 95th percentile.
Ohio def BGSU 6-1
41.129 def 43.547, exchanging 1.242
Ohio defeated BGSU at the WAR V. Overall, the technical upset ranks 193rd all time and falls in the 54th percentile.
Ratings, sorted.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
| ↑ from 2 | 1 | 48.593 | GVSU |
| ↓ from 1 | 2 | 48.436 | UC |
| ↑ from 5 | 3 | 46.017 | OSU |
| ↓ from 3 | 4 | 45.453 | MSU |
| ↑ from 12 | 5 | 44.001 | Ohio |
| — | 6 | 43.588 | JMU |
| — | 7 | 43.586 | PSU |
| — | 8 | 42.470 | BGSU |
| ↑ from 10 | 9 | 42.366 | UNL |
| ↓ from 4 | 10 | 41.346 | Towson |
| ↓ from 9 | 11 | 41.133 | Akron |
| ↓ from 13 | 12 | 40.221 | CSU |
| — | 13 | 39.981 | UK |
| ↑ from 20 | 14 | 39.944 | SVSU |
| ↓ from 18 | 15 | 39.612 | UVA |
| — | 16 | 37.931 | VCU |
| — | 17 | 37.319 | UWP |
| ↑ from 29 | 18 | 37.205 | BSU |
| ↑ from 30 | 19 | 36.904 | UMD |
| ↑ from 31 | 20 | 36.624 | WMU |
| ↑ from 32 | 21 | 36.615 | Kent |
| ↓ from 28 | 22 | 35.028 | Miami |
Rating Changes
| Rating Changes | Pre | Post | Change |
| Ohio | 41.129 | 44.001 | 2.872 |
| OSU | 43.775 | 46.017 | 2.241 |
| GVSU | 46.556 | 48.593 | 2.037 |
| SVSU | 39.051 | 39.944 | 0.893 |
| UC | 47.677 | 48.436 | 0.760 |
| UWP | 37.451 | 37.319 | -0.132 |
| CSU | 40.655 | 40.221 | -0.435 |
| BGSU | 43.547 | 42.470 | -1.077 |
| Akron | 43.094 | 41.133 | -1.961 |
| Miami | 37.317 | 35.028 | -2.289 |
| Towson | 44.255 | 41.346 | -2.909 |
See the Resource Center for more documentation.
Records, Master Spreadsheet: 2005-Present
Records, Individual Docs: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
Gonzalez System: Exchange Sheet, Spec Doc, Probability Calculator
Is there a list of all these upsets?