We had twenty matches over two events this weekend. Dodgeball has returned to IM West for the annual Spartan Invite, and the same can be said for a reactivated Miami. BGSU set a new record for most games played in a weekend outside of Nationals (6 matches) by participating at both events this past weekend.
| Mov. | Rank | Rating | Team |
| — | 1 | 56.238 | GVSU |
| — | 2 | 49.739 | MSU |
| — | 3 | 48.738 | CMU |
| ↑ from 6 | 4 | 47.269 | UK |
| ↓ from 4 | 5 | 46.681 | JMU |
| ↑ from 8 | 6 | 46.091 | SVSU |
| ↑ from 9 | 7 | 45.027 | Towson |
| ↓ from 7 | 8 | 44.618 | OSU |
| ↓ from 5 | 9 | 44.447 | Kent |
| — | 10 | 42.340 | UNG |
| — | 11 | 41.977 | VCU |
| — | 12 | 41.123 | WKU |
| — | 13 | 41.088 | PSU |
| — | 14 | 40.474 | UNT |
| — | 15 | 40.417 | UWP |
| — | 16 | 38.583 | BGSU |
| — | 17 | 37.926 | NIU |
| ↑ from 22 | 18 | 37.857 | DePaul |
| ↓ from 18 | 19 | 37.660 | GSU |
| ↓ from 19 | 20 | 37.376 | UVA |
| ↓ from 20 | 21 | 37.310 | UMD |
| ↓ from 21 | 22 | 37.197 | Akron |
| — | 23 | 36.563 | BW |
| ↑ from 25 | 24 | 36.433 | UNL |
| ↑ from 26 | 25 | 36.067 | Pitt |
| ↑ from 27 | 26 | 35.118 | SU |
| ↑ from 28 | 27 | 34.487 | Ohio |
| ↓ from 24 | 28 | 33.700 | Miami |
There were four technical upsets of the day:
Ohio def Miami (1.527)
DePaul def BGSU (1.313)
SVSU def Kent (1.037)
BGSU def Miami (1.035)
The biggest upset of the day was Ohio def Miami 5-0. This marks Ohio’s second win of the season with an exchange of 1.527, which falls as the 27th biggest upset of 217 total technical upsets (about 87th percentile). The NCDA’s total ranked matches now number 1074 at a 79.80% successful prediction rate.
DePauly. Having played 4 matches at MSU, three Michigan opponents were statistically insignificant. Even a Kent/DePaul matchup (0.045) would have been less statistically significant than the end SV/DePaul match (0.221). But second highest upset of the weekend is claimed by DePaul’s win on BGSU. This technical upset ranks just 82nd of the 217 technical upsets or about the 63rd percentile. Since this exchange falls within one deviation of the mean (68%), this isn’t the most significantly important upset. But it was enough for DePaul to climbs to one of the highest ratings they’ve had of any November. Their average Gonzalez Rating hovers around 36.168 across DePaul’s total history.
BGSU and the inbetween. While BGSU’s Gonzalez rating netted -0.587 over their six games this weekend, their standing hasn’t moved since last week. They’ve floated into a buffer zone between NIU/DePaul and UWP/UNT, being one even-strength match from two placings in either direction. I might have stated before that BGSU was leading the pack of teams that are right below-median line, those 36/37 rated teams in the lower half of the Standings that range #17-#24. BGSU is ahead of that below-median pack as it stands now, but it is also not readily apparent if BGSU will float into the #10-15 median rated teams. Their next game should determine this.
Return of Miami. We now have 8 matches since Miami’s return, so we have a good estimate of their Gonzalez rating. Unfortunately it is last of the rated teams, but just .787 behind their upset rival, Ohio University. Any win for Miami is going to be an upset win from here on out, so they have an opportunity to climb back. It’s how the system works. If they beat Ohio on a neutral court, they are looking at an 1.079 upset win to climb one placing. Based on the historical data for technical upsets and the use of standard deviations, Miami is within striking distance of any team between Ohio (#27) and BGSU (#16).
