Statistical Look at the 2012 MSU Invite

With the MSU Invite just over a week away, it’s time to look at the competition for the #6 Spartans.

-#14 Bowling Green (0-3-0) has typically played well against the Spartans in the past, and they usually take the first point from MSU. This could be bad for State, as they are also a slow starting team in tournaments. So when you mix those two facts, it’s very easy to see the Falcons jumping out to a lead next Sunday. BGSU has done poorly against Michigan schools the past three seasons however. They’ve been outscored a combined 41-7 in 9 games against Great Lakes State foes. The most points they’ve scored in a match against Michigan schools is 2 (this year against SVSU). Bowling Green in general is a school that has had a hard time putting points on the board. They’ve only scored 23 points since the start of last season, with highs of 4 (against Depaul and Northwestern State). Part of this may be due to their tough schedule, but it also may be the fact that they’re lacking in power arms and tend to rely more on defense.

-#9(t) Depaul (1-1-0) has played two matches against Moody this season. This will be their first trip outside of Chicago this year, but their fourth straight appearance at the MSU Invite. They’ve had moderate success in East Lansing, last year they were competitive against OSU and Kent, beat Eastern Michigan, and lost to Michigan State, which is a major improvement over their showing in 2010. The Blue Demons are known for their uptempo style play, which leads to them giving up a lot of points but also for them to have the ability to score some points as well. However, Depaul has never won more than 4 games under the new NHL style points format, and out of the schools attending the tournament they’ve only beaten Moody.

-#9(t) Moody (1-1-0) hasn’t left the state of Illinois other than competing at Nationals, so this will be an interesting test for them. The Archers have had success in their first two seasons as a club, but they still need to get a win against a top team. Last year they went 5-7, but their seven losses were against GVSU, SVSU, MSU, Kent State, WKU, CMU, and Kentucky. There is no shame losing to those schools, as they were probably 7 of the top 9 teams in the country last year, but eventually one would like to see Moody take down a top ranked team. With a strong cast of players, and momentum coming from their recent victory over Depaul, this could be the breakthrough that Moody’s been waiting for.

-#8 Central Michigan (2-1-0) got trounced in their first match of the season (7-1 against Grand Valley) but rebounded nicely with victories over BGSU and Miami. The fact that they’re 9-0 in their last 9 games against the Spartans looms large over Michigan State, but even then the point differential cannot be much higher than 11 (we unfortunately do not have the records from the 2009-2010 season, but the battles that season were along the lines of every other season). The Chips have also gone through a drastic change in their roster, losing Captains/All-Stars/All-NCDA performers in Pat Fisher and Eric Sweet. CMU recently beat both Kent State and Moody at Nationals 2012, so they could be favored to advance from their pool. If the Spartans and Chippewas do end up playing, look forward to yet another duel in the nation’s most underrated rivalry.

-#1 Kent State (7-2-0) has had a weird start to the season. As expected, they are #1, but they have put up some very weird scorelines. For a team that used to play very free-flowing and uptempo, they’ve slowed it down and are now focused on ball possession and blocking. They’ve scored 22 points in their first 9 games this season, last year through 9 they scored 24 (take away the 7 point outbursts each year against Towson and their scoring is a lot lower.) This may be attributed to the fact that the league itself is forming into a more defense oriented league after the success of Grand Valley, but it may just be a change in philosophy as well. Is it working for Kent State is the question? They are the only team that’s put up a point on Kentucky’s A-team so far this season, and they were able to beat James Madison without 5 varsity players. However, they were blanked by Michigan State and were forced to OT by a very undermanned SVSU squad. Is the defense and ball possession approach working? Probably. But considering that’s almost every team’s M.O. right now, maybe they would be better to shake things up a little bit.

Looking Ahead to the MSU Invite

After performing well at the OSU Round Robin, Michigan State will be hosting their first tournament of the season on November 4th at IM West in East Lansing. Competing along with MSU will be Bowling Green, Depaul, Moody Bible Institute, Kent State, and Central Michigan. As the Spartans look to continue on their hot start to the season, they’ll have to deal with some tough competition. The teams have been split into two pools: Pool A features MSU, Bowling Green, and Depaul, while Pool B includes Kent State, Moody Bible, and CMU. The winners, second place, and third place teams of each pool will play each other for their third and final games of the day.

Michigan State hasn’t lost to BGSU since 2008, but they have played many hard fought games since then. Traditionally the Spartans drop the first point to BGSU, but come roaring back. They have won the last four years they have played, and look to continue that streak. For State to win they’ll have to limit Brady Etzler’s performance, and not throw catches to the Falcons. They also need to try and take the first point instead of giving BGSU hope that they can win the match, unlike last year at SVSU. Bowling Green starts their season at home this weekend at the BGSU Invite.

Depaul is 1-0 on the young season, having already beaten Moody Bible, but they’ll need to play a perfect game to upset Michigan State. The Spartans usually dominate the game against the Blue Demons, although Depaul isn’t as focused on winning as they are on having fun. The last two seasons MSU has played Depaul three times, and won all three by a combined 26-2 score. Depaul also lost two of their best players from last season, but they should still be competitive. They beat Moody Bible  3-1 in September, who was the best team in the “Illinois” region last year, so they can compete if they want to.

Moody Bible has new leadership at the top this season, and this will be their first tournament other than Nationals outside of the Chicago Dodgeball Open. While the Archers have some talent, the Spartans usually handle them fairly easily, with wins of 8-0, 6-0, and 5-0 in the history between these two foes. Led by Jake Ochoa and an All-NCDA team player in Ryan Pattison, the Archers could be the best team in the Illinois region again this year if they can pull off some upsets and get more matches in.

Michigan State has already handled Kent State once this season, 3-0 in Columbus, but they are still a solid team and will likely be a top 5 team in the standings by the end of the season. They have some power arms, especially in Camden Fullmer, and they have some excellent blockers. If they get more accurate or get hot they can beat anyone in the country, so MSU needs to be prepared to play if they do end up playing them. If the Spartans get cocky that they’ve already beaten them, then they can be beaten. If they are ready for the challenge, then they should take them easily.

CMU hasn’t lost to State since 2008, a total of 8 straight meetings, although all 8 meetings have come down to the wire. The two teams usually play to a 3-2 or 2-1 game, sometimes even in overtime, and unfortunately for MSU the Chips usually come out victorious. CMU lost two of their captains and star players in Pat Fisher and Eric Sweet, so MSU has a great chance to knock them off, but nobody will know how good CMU is until this weekend, when they travel to the BGSU Invite.

 

Spartans Go 3-1 At OSU Round Robin

The Spartans got off to one of their best starts in years this weekend when they traveled to Columbus, Ohio, to do battle in the OSU Round Robin. Bringing a roster with seven rookies on it, down three of their power throwers, and only 19 players total, MSU was able to play some great dodgeball. State played Kentucky first, the reigning National Runner Ups, and lost 4-0. The Wildcats outgunned the Spartans with more power arms, and MSU was definitely having some first game jitters. Michigan State was competitive though in the game, and they were in every point. It will be interesting to see what would happen when they play again. The next game up for MSU was rival Saginaw Valley, who was coming off the first overtime game under the new overtime rules. The Cardinals looked like they were into the match early, but Michigan State came out and won 5-0. MSU wanted the game more, and they definitely had a talent advantage, but the Spartans dominated in every facet of the game. The Spartans wanted revenge too for having lost to the Cardinals three times last season, including at the Michigan Dodgeball Cup in East Lansing and at Nationals. Following that match State went and played Kent State. Kent State had a few power arms and took an early advantage over MSU, but some clutch catches by captains Kevin Miller and Sam Hiller brought the team to life and helped get the Spartans the first point. MSU would go on to win 3-0, overpowering the Golden Flashes with their mix of power, catching, and teamwork. The last game of the day for MSU was a battle with host school Ohio State. Ohio State also jumped out to a quick lead in the first point after some great catches, but Zach Bauer helped lead the Spartans back and take the point. Following that the Spartans played with energy and enthusiasm, and took 2 more points in the first half, including on in five minutes just before the half. MSU would go on to win 4-1.

Many players stepped up over the course of the day. Assistant Captains Zach Bauer and Kevin Miller kept the energy going with huge kills and big time catches. Sophomore Josh Brawley, junior Mike Van Ermen, and senior Eric Paul got a bunch of kills, leading to some routs for State. Captain Sam Hiller had a great catching day after the first game as well. Some of the rookies had fantastic performances too. Colin O’Brien made some good catches to go along with a few kills, Josh Ciboch played great in end game scenarios, James Schneider made some clutch catches, and Zach Webber played some great defense as well. There wasn’t anyone on the team who had an off day, and everyone was able to compete well and get some kills and catches for the Spartans.

Michigan State next plays at home in the MSU Invite. They play Bowling Green and Depaul, and then will play either Central Michigan, Kent State, or Moody Bible. The MSU Invite will be November 4th.

OSU Round Robin Schedule

 

The OSU Round Robin will be on October 14th in Columbus, Ohio.

Noon-

MSU vs UK

SVSU vs Kent State

(OSU refs)

1:30-

MSU vs SVSU

UK vs OSU

(Kent State refs)

3:00-

MSU vs Kent State

SVSU vs OSU

(UK refs)

4:30-

UK vs Kent State

OSU vs MSU

(SVSU refs)

6:00-

UK vs SVSU

OSU vs Kent State

(MSU refs)

 

Spartans vs Potential Opponents at OSU Round Robin

The Spartans have gotten into many tussles with SVSU, but have largely missed out on playing OSU, Kent State, and Kentucky over the last few seasons.

MSU has last played Kentucky in 2008, when they traveled to the Kentucky Invite. The teams are obviously very drastically different now, as the Spartans will have at most three players (Ian Childs, Sam Hiller, and Andrew Koczara) left from the team that made that trip, and the Wildcats have gone from being a below average team to one of the best. The last time UK and MSU played, State took the victory with a 4-2 scoreline. However, UK seems to be in good shape against MSU, as the Wildcats beat JMU 3-1 (a team MSU lost to 2-1), beat Kent State 3-0 (MSU beat them 4-2 in November) and beat OSU 4-0 (MSU won 3-1 in November) at Nationals last year. MSU did fare better against SVSU than the UK did (MSU lost 3-2, UK lost 4-0 twice) so this should be a fairly even match. The Spartans have to avoid thinking UK isn’t as good as them just because they are an out of state school, otherwise they could get beaten just like they did by JMU. The three players to watch on UK are Wes Hopkins (#1), Zac Brown (#13) and Thomas Kidd (#2). Hopkins has the league’s fast arm (clocked in at over 80 mph) and will be a target for the Spartans to eliminate early so as to limit the damage he can do. Zac Brown is a good strategist and is the team’s captain. Kidd was named to the All-NCDA team last season. Overall this is a very dangerous team, and could be a Final Four favorite (at the very least) this season.

Kent State has played the Spartans very little over the past few seasons, in fact they’ve only played them twice since the 2008-2009 season. In 2009 they played at the BGSU Invite, and they played to a rare NCDA tie. Last season they played at the MSU Invite, and Michigan State knocked off Kent 4-2. Kent State has already played one match this season, beating OSU 2-1 in Kent. The Golden Flashes are probably the loosest, most free flowing team that MSU will play in the round robin, and they typically play fast. However, with a new leadership group, it will be interesting to see how the Flashes play. Kent is on a low scoring streak against teams with winning records, having scored 3 or less points in 8 straight matches against quality competition. They’ve were shutout three times last season as well, and in their losses last year they averaged .667 points. Kent State in their victories gave up a low amount of points however. So it comes down to if MSU can score a couple early points, they should have the match. If Kent State can get the momentum, they can take the match.

Ohio State is the prototypical “catch first” style team, with a very limited amount of power arms but being loaded with defensive minded players. The Buckeyes will need to capitalize on Spartan mistakes, especially on the less experienced Spartans, and they’ll need to slow the game down the their tempo. OSU plays one of the slowest games in the country when they’re on, as evidenced by holding GVSU to a 1-0 Laker victory in Nationals 2011. MSU beat their Big Ten rival 3-1 last season. For MSU to win, they’ll have to do what OSU is trying to do- dictate tempo and force Buckeye mistakes. While the Spartans play a slower tempo than average, they can’t allow the game to get slowed all the way down to OSU’s level. MSU is also bringing a catching team next weekend, but they should have more power arms in the stable than OSU. So if the Spartans team throw, block for each other, and catch OSU’s solo throws, this match will belong to Michigan State.

Saginaw Valley has been a tough foe for MSU in the past four seasons, and they had some very close games last season. After MSU pulled off upsets at the MDC in 2010 and 2011, Michigan State failed to beat Saginaw Valley in any of their three duels last year. In the first match up the Spartans took a 2-1 lead going into the half at SVSU before allowing the Cards to make a furious comeback and win 4-2. In both their second (at MSU) and third (at SVSU) matches, SVSU jumped out to 3-0 leads at halftime but had to hold off Spartan rallies both times to win 3-2. While they have lost the majority of their “core” players, some players (such as #77 Spencer Jardine and #13 Torrie Peplinski) who have been thorns in the Spartans side return. While Jardine has a cannon to go along with great leadership qualities and catching abilities, Peplinski is one of the best catchers in the league. For MSU to get a W in this match they’ll have to focus on getting them out and forcing some of the rookies or inexperienced veterans for SVSU to make plays. This will actually be the first neutral court fight for the two teams since at BGSU in the Fall of 2009.

All four of these schools pose serious threats to MSU in the round robin, but they are also four beatable schools for State to climb to the top of the standings.

OSU Round Robin Stats

-Teams attending the tournament went a combined 73-31 last season. They’ve gone a combined 122-60 the last two seasons. That’s a .670 win percentage.

-There are two former National Champions in the tournament (SVSU and OSU) and three former National Runner Ups in the tournament (SVSU, OSU, and UK)

-This is the first “major” tournament of the season. Last year’s first “major” tournament featured three Final Four Teams (Kent State, SVSU, and GVSU) and the 2010-2011 season’s first “major tournament” featured one Final Four team (MSU). Who will make the Final Four from this tournament?

-All five of the teams attending were in the quarterfinals the year before. 3 of the teams attending (SVSU, Kent, and Kentucky) made the semifinals, while both MSU (3-2 to SVSU) and OSU (2-1 to Kent) were one point short of making the semifinals. Only one other tournament this season features a field made up entirely of Quarterfinalists, and that is the Michigan Dodgeball Cup in February.

-In the 2010-2011 season, the Nationals 2010 Runner Up Central Michigan went 3-1,  against the 2010 Champion Grand Valley, while finishing their season by defeating them in the championship game. In the 2011-2012 season, Nationals 2011 Runner Up GVSU went 1-2, but ended the Chippewas season. Can Kentucky make it three straight years a team gets revenge over the National Champion?

-Speaking of getting revenge, the Spartans will want some against the Cardinals as well. It was a tale of halves for State vs SVSU this past season- combining the first half of their first match with the second halves of their later two matches, the Spartans would lead the scoring 6-1. However, in the three other halves, the Cards would lead 9-1 themselves. So whichever team can put together a full game should be the winner if this match if it happens. The last time that SVSU and MSU met on a neutral court was at BGSU in the Fall of 2009. The Cardinals would go on to win that game in a close one.

-Kent State has a lot to prove in the tournament. Last season they were able to beat OSU and Kentucky, but their score against the three main Michigan schools they faced was a combined 16-3 against them. However, the Flashes haven’t had a chance at SVSU the past two seasons, and their closest game against one of the big Michigan schools was against MSU (4-2 at East Lansing) so this might be their opportunity to prove they belong.

-Ohio State is known for the excellence in playing slow ball, and it has worked great against the schools attending the tournament. They knocked off SVSU at Nationals 2010 to make the National Semifinals, and since then their point total in matches against teams participating in the tournament is 16-25. The most points in one of those matches they’ve played in is 5 points. So they are forcing teams to play to their tempo, they just need to force more victories. Their average points scored in a match is just 1.45 and they’re allowing 2.23 points per game against foes competing in this tournament. So they need to either speed up their tempo and try something new, or they need to close out points better.

-So who’s the favorite for the tournament? Since the start of the 2010-2011 season, SVSU has the best record at 9-1 vs the other teams in the tournament. However, the Cardinals lost some of their key players, such as Ryan Schian, Jason Stein, Jordan Elliot, Josh Brettrager, and Bryan Janick. It could be Michigan State, who is undefeated vs teams outside of Michigan minus one loss to JMU last season at Nationals, but they too have big shoes to fill. Kentucky could fit the bill, as they return the vast majority of their roster, but they have never beaten a Big Four Michigan school, and with two on the docket it could be tough. Ohio State has the home court advantage, but they have already lost to Kent State this season. Kent State is in the same position as Kentucky, but without the leadership of Ryan Menn and Kyle Fitzpatrick it will be trial by fire for the new leadership group. Basically, the round robin has no favorite. It’s anyone’s game. Could a team come out unscathed? Definitely. But there’s no guarantee. The OSU Round Robin is on October 14th, and it looks like it should be the tournament of the Fall.

New Rookie Class Looking Strong

A new group of Spartan Dodgeballers has joined the Michigan State Club Dodgeball Team, and this could be the best class since the 2009-2010 class. With a ton of diverse players coming together, it’s a unique class with a wide array of talents to help the team out. The class includes some power throwers, some pure catchers, some blockers, and a few people who can do a little bit of everything. There’s also a wide age range, with some seniors to go along with mostly freshmen and sophomores.

The players have all come from different dodgeballing backgrounds as well. Sophomore Tim Leszczynski played with the team towards the end of the season last year, and freshman Colin O’Brien says “I’ve played dodgeball every summer at my camp where I was a camper and now am a counselor as well as my high school had two dodgeball tournaments a year which were my favorite Fridays of the year.” Freshman Alex Starbird says that he wanted to play dodgeball because “It’s something different that not many other people get to play.”

The players have all loved it so far as well, with O’Brien saying “It’s been great thus far. The level of competition is great and forces me to improve every practice.” Starbird adds “I’ve really enjoyed playing so far, each practice has been a lot of fun.” The rookies are all getting better as well, as Starbird says “I feel like I have gotten better in the first couple weeks because I now know that there is strategy to the game and it’s not just a free for all.”

But the season is just beginning, and some of the players already are excited for later events. “I’m really looking forward to the first tournament and getting out there in a real game where playing as a team and winning really matters” states O’Brien.

Assistant Captain Kevin Miller feels like this is a good group of rookies. “The rookies have been showing a lot of promise this year. They are working well as a team and play a fearless game. There is a lot of good talent in this group. The returning players from last year will need to play hard if they want to stay on the varsity roster.”

With this recruiting class, the Spartans could make a good run towards both the Michigan Dodgeball Cup title and National Championship if they continue to improve, not just this year but also in the future.

2012 MSU Invite Information

The 2012 MSU Invite will be hosted at IM West on MSU’s campus from 11am-6pm on November 4th. Joining the host school will be in-state rival CMU, last year’s top team in the regular season in Kent State, court jesters Depaul, a tough team in Bowling Green, and upstart Moody Bible. The pools have been set and a preliminary schedule has been created as well.

In Pool A (played in the Sports Arena) will be the Spartans, BGSU, and Depaul. MSU is the two time defending champion of the tournament, and would love to make it a three-peat. Bowling Green has some power arms to go along with some shifty players and catchers, and while they haven’t beaten the Spartans since the 2007-2008 season, they always put up a tough fight. In fact, State usually drops the first point against the Falcons, which means that if BGSU could continue this trend their could be an upset in the making. The third team in the pool is Depaul, who is currently 1-0 on the young season. They beat rival Moody Bible 3-1 in the season’s opening match, and the Blue Demons could definitely pull out some wins in this tournament if they play to win. Depaul is a regular at the MSU Invite, so it’s nice to see them come back once again.

The Pool A Schedule:

11am- Michigan State vs Bowling Green

12:15pm- Bowling Green vs Depaul

1:30pm- Michigan State vs Depaul

Pool B (played in Gym 3) features the top two teams from the last two regular seasons and also a team who has been making strides in its first two years in the league. The headlining team is the Chippewas of Central Michigan, who won the 2011 National Tournament, but this will be a new look CMU team without many of its veteran players. However, they still have many of their top tier talent left and should still be able to catch almost anything. Last year’s number one team in the regular season is in a similar situation to CMU due to the loss of leadership and talent up top, but Kent State has already beaten a tough Ohio State team this year. The Golden Flashes could be the number one seed again at Nationals as they load up their schedule once again this season, and the MSU Invite will be their second tournament in as many weeks. The Archers of Moody Bible may have lost their first game at home to Depaul, but they were in it all the way and could easily pull out a couple wins in the tournament. They have new leadership this year, but they still have some firepower and could possibly sneak up on either CMU or Kent State.

The Pool B Schedule:

11am- CMU vs Kent State

12:15pm- Kent State vs Moody

1:30pm- CMU vs Moody

After the preliminary rounds of games the first place teams from each pool, second place teams, and third place teams will all play each other.

2:45pm- Pool A 2nd Place vs Pool B 2nd Place (Sports Arena), Pool A 3rd Place vs Pool B 3rd Place (Gym 3)

4:00pm- Pool A 1st Place vs Pool B 1st Place

The MSU Invite could be one of the most exciting tournaments of the fall, with the possibility of some big rivalry matches and some unique matches of teams who rarely play each other.