The field for Nationals, specifically the opponents for State, are starting to be more clearer with Nationals only two months away. MSU’s stellar play so far this season has virtually assured them of at least a two seed in the pool play portion of Nationals, and could even get them a one seed. They are currently #3 in the Nation, despite only going 1-2-1 at the Michigan Dodgeball Cup in February. With the BEAST II yet to be played still however, they will likely be somewhere from 4th to 6th in the standings going into Nationals. The current projection is that there will be either five or six pools for Saturday, meaning MSU may be cutting it close on being that one seed.
It will likely come down to State or #6 Saginaw Valley for the last spot if there are only five pools. If State isn’t a one seed, they’ll have a tougher game first day than they’d originally expected. There are a clear cut top six teams in the league right now who are considered to be National title favorites, then there is a middle tier of teams that are considered dark horses. If there are only five pools, then one pool will have two of those top six teams in it, and that’s something MSU would prefer to avoid. Outside of their 4-0 loss to UK in the first game of the season, MSU is 3-4-2 against the other top teams in the country, with all 4 losses coming by one point. Against the rest of the competition they’re 7-0, giving up a total of three points.
If MSU does get a one seed, they will avoid playing the other top tier teams first day. While that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to sleep through Saturday of Nationals, it does mean that they’ll have an easier chance to go undefeated and have a top four seed for Sunday. If State gets the #6 overall seed, and thus ended up being a two seed, they will likely draw either UK, JMU, or Kent State on Saturday. While MSU has beaten Kent State twice this season already, they have improved greatly since they played last. JMU and Kentucky have both beaten MSU once this season. The Spartans had to go through that last year, when they played JMU on the first day and the loss to the Dukes threw them into the same half of the bracket as GVSU, CMU, and SVSU.
Potential two seeds that the Spartans could draw as a one seed include OSU, Maryland, WKU, and Towson. MSU defeated the Buckeyes 4-1 in Columbus earlier in the season and beat WKU at Nationals last year, but have never faced either Maryland or Towson. Central Michigan is also a potential two seed, but it would be unlikely that they would be placed in the same pool as MSU.
If the season were to end today, and there were no upsets in the pool play, then MSU would be looking at the #3 seed overall in the Sunday pool of the bracket. They would play the winner of RIT and one of the teams who hasn’t played a game this season, which would lead into a battle with likely SVSU in the National Quarterfinals. This year’s Nationals will be more hotly contested, and there is more parity, than the last few years. Whereas last year the case that the four best teams were in one half of the bracket could be made, this year there is no “clear cut” top four teams. There’ll be tough matchups for everyone starting in the Quarterfinals.